The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 15 Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon game.
| Cincinnati | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
| 23.5 | Implied Total | 20 | ||
| 25.8 | 7 | Points/Gm | 17.2 | 28 |
| 20.4 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 19.5 | 9 |
| 65.3 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 68 | 3 |
| 61.4 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.2 | 11 |
| 5.7 | 10 | Off. Yards/Play | 5 | 26 |
| 5.4 | 14 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 10 |
| 39.34% | 22 | Rush% | 32.35% | 32 |
| 60.66% | 11 | Pass% | 67.65% | 1 |
| 42.48% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 43.63% | 20 |
| 57.52% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 56.37% | 13 |
- The Bengals are a league-best 10-3 against the spread this season.
- Tampa Bay is a league-worst 3-9-1 against the spread.
- The Buccaneers are 0-5-1 against the spread at home this season, tied for the worst record ATS at home.
- Joe Burrow has been sacked on just 3.4% of his dropbacks since Week 9 (seventh lowest rate) after 8.7% prior (34th)
- The Buccaneers are 31st in the league in explosive passing play rate (9.7%) and 32nd in explosive rushing play rate (4.5%).
- The Bengals are fifth in the NFL in points per drive (2.41).
- The Buccaneers are 29th in the league in points per drive (1.50).
- 44.4% of the scoring plays against the Bengals have been touchdowns, the second-lowest rate in the league.
- 66.7% of the scoring plays allowed by the Buccaneers have been touchdowns, the third-highest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Joe Burrow: Burrow was forced to work down Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Hayden Hurst last week and it made an impact. Burrow closed the week as the QB13 (16.6 points), completing a season-low 54.5% of his passes. He still managed to throw a pair of touchdowns, the sixth time over the past eight games he has thrown multiple scores.
We know that Hurst will be out this weekend, but Burrow has worked with an incomplete set of receivers now often over this stretch of the season. For as good as the Bengals are at the top of their pass catching positions, their depth is severely lacking. Burrow completed 80.6% of his passes against the Chiefs with all three of his primary on the field, but over his past three games surrounding that week, he has his three lowest completion rates of the season missing a core piece. The good news is that after Friday it appears that both Higgins and Boyd will play this weekend.
That said, Burrow still has been a QB1 in 9-of-13 starts while finishing in the back half of scoring just once all season. He has held a high floor and still can be started in all formats as a QB1 even if we ding his ceiling a bit on the potential that this receiving corps is banged up outside of Chase. It's also a testament to how fluid the NFL is that now Chase is immediately the healthiest wideout on the team.
Tampa Bay has had its hiccups defensively and Sunday was another example as they could not slow down Brock Purdy (QB6) and the 49ers. The Buccaneers now sit 19th in the league in passing points allowed per attempt (0.430). Most of the damage has come from allowing a 4.8% touchdown rate (27th). They are still 10th in yards allowed per attempt (6.7 Y/A) and 10th in yards allowed per completion (10.3 Y/A).
