Through eight weeks of the 2022 NFL season, Tyreek Hill had 961 receiving yards, nearly 200 more than the next highest receiver (764). Hill, especially with the way the Miami offense had been rolling, looked like not just the overwhelming favorite to lead the league in receiving yards but also the inevitable Offensive Player of the Year winner. Eight weeks later, Hill no longer leads the league in receiving yards or OPOY odds. Both of those belong to Justin Jefferson. Since Week 9, Jefferson has 1,004 receiving yards, 226 more than the next-highest receiver (774).
Jefferson is now just 206 yards away from Calvin Johnson’s single-season record of 1.964 receiving yards. Johnson, of course, did that over a 16-game season and Jefferson is behind Johnson’s pace after Week 16, but he is also closer than Cooper Kupp was at this point in the season last year. Jefferson only trails Johnson for the most receiving yards through Week 16 since at least 2000.
Most Receiving Yards Through Week 16 Since 2000
data per TruMedia
| Player | Season | Receiving Yards |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 2012 | 1892 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2022 | 1756 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2021 | 1734 |
| Julio Jones | 2015 | 1722 |
In those first eight weeks, Jefferson was having a good season. He was still third in receiving yards but there was a lack of big plays. So much of Jefferson’s work was in the short area of the field and his aDOT of 8.11 left a lot to be desired. Again, he was still third in receiving yards over that time. But over the past eight weeks there has been a shift in the Minnesota offense and the way Jefferson has been used.
Justin Jefferson Target Splits, 2022
data per TruMedia
| Weeks | aDOT | Target Share | Short Targets | Intermediate Targets | Deep Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-8 | 8.11 | 28.9% | 56.3% | 18.3.% | 9.9% |
| 9-16 | 11.45 | 31.4% | 40.8% | 32.0% | 17.5% |
Part of that stems from the addition of T.J. Hockenson at the trade deadline. Hockenson, himself, has been a welcome addition to the offense even with some untimely drops in a few big moments. He’s 23rd in receiving yards (second among tight ends) since he came over from Detroit with the most routes run at the position.
More importantly, the presence of Hockenson has allowed the Vikings to open up the offense with Jefferson. Under Kevin O’Connell, this Sean McVay-inspired offense had looked more like the Jared Goff version than the 2021 Matthew Stafford edition. There has been a heavy dose of play-action and shallow crossers to take advantage of open space on short throws. Someone has to run those crossers and for the first half of the season, that player was Jefferson.
During the first eight weeks of the season, 15.8% of Jefferson’s routes and 14.1% of his targets were crossers, according to TruMedia. His aDOT on those targets was just 6.2 yards past the line of scrimmage. Compare that to the 2022 version of Kupp, who even with the Rams’ passing offense in disarray, had a 12.38-yard aDOT on crossers over the first half of the season.
Over the past eight weeks, Hockenson has helped take up the shallow crosser role. 13.7% of his routes and targets have come on crossers. Meanwhile, Jefferson’s crossing route rate has dropped to 10.1% and just 5.8% of his targets have been on crossers since Week 9.
With the shallow part of the field accounted for, Jefferson has been able to move outside more (72% to 78.5% of his snaps) and work down the field. 14.6% of Jefferson’s targets have come on go routes over the past eight weeks after 8.5% prior. On those targets alone, Jefferson has 220 yards.
Jefferson might also have the best body control of any receiver in the league. We all know the concentration of the fourth-and-18 play against the Buffalo Bills in Week 10 but he 22-yard touchdown earlier in the game showcased his smoothness in keeping control and maximizing the throwing window.
He can also do that from that slot, as he did turning around and finding the ball on a corner route against the Detroit Lions in Week 14.
Even when Jefferson was getting the short targets at the start of the season, he wasn’t often used in the middle of the field. He had just 24 targets and 283 yards between the numbers across the first eight weeks of the season with a 7.88-yard aDOT, per TruMedia. Since Week 9, Jefferson has been targeted 32 times for 327 yards with an 8.72-yard aDOT.
Jefferson has killed this season on dig routes, especially when he’s seen press coverage. According to Next Gen Stats, no receiver has run more routes this season against press than Jefferson. He can be so smooth and quick off the line that the defender can’t do enough to disrupt Jefferson’s route. Among 30 receivers with at least 100 routes against press coverage, Jefferson has the fourth-lowest rate of targets that end up in tight windows (a yard or fewer of separation) on those plays.
This has been the case all season. Below is a third-and-5 in the first quarter of Minnesota’s season opener against Green Bay. The Packers tried to run up and press the receiver but Jefferson got inside the inside hand of Eric Stokes and was able to break in with leverage for a 20-yard gain.
These digs also work when the defense is going to bail back into zone coverage. On a second-and-8 against the Cowboys in Week 11, Trevon Diggs was lined up on the line of scrimmage across from Jefferson. Jefferson released inside and Diggs could only attempt to swipe at Jefferson as the corner dropped back. Jefferson had plenty of room to break in front of linebacker Leighton Vander Esch for a gain of 14 yards.
Jefferson has been able to cut these routes with such precision between defenders. There hasn’t been a player better at finding the space between the underneath and deep defenders. Per Next Gen Stats, only Terry McLaurin (+16%) has a higher completion rate over expectation (+13%) than Jefferson on in-breaking routes.
In Week 16 against the Giants, Jefferson was outside in an empty set in the red zone. This time Jefferson released outside the corner but still broke in behind him, completely turning around Fabian Moreau. Jefferson also sold the vertical stem long enough to freeze the safety who couldn’t close on the route quick enough once Jefferson broke to the middle of the field, creating plenty of space and separation for a touchdown.
These in-breakers have become a staple of the Minnesota passing offense over the second half of the season. Jefferson and Adam Thielen are tied for the most such routes since Week 9 (35) while K.J. Osborn is fourth (31) and Hockenson is fifth (30), per TruMedia.
Since Week 9, the Vikings are 10th in EPA per dropback. Jefferson’s ability is the biggest piece in that efficiency. Minnesota might not be the most convincing 12-3 team based on a ton of underlying metrics but they can be a problem in the playoffs because they have a superstar who can completely take over a game. Jefferson has done that over the second half of the season and there might not be a more valuable non-quarterback in the league this year.
