Sharp Football's Rich Hribrar breaks down this Bengals vs Ravens AFC Wild Card Playoff matchup:
This AFC Wild Card game is the rubber match between these teams. The Ravens beat the Bengals 19-17 at home back in Week 5 while the Bengals just defeated Baltimore a week ago 27-16 in the season finale.
The Bengals are the hottest team in the AFC, winning their final eight games of the regular season.
Over that span, they are fifth in the league in points per drive (2.47) and ninth in yards per play (5.6).
The Ravens hit the postseason losing three of their final four games of the season.
Baltimore is sporting one of the league’s worst scoring offenses over the back half of the season.
Since their Week 10 bye, the Ravens have scored a touchdown on just 9.4% of their drives, which is 31st in the league over that span. Only the Jets (9.0%) were worse. During that period, Baltimore averaged 1.35 points per drive, 29th in the league.
Will Lamar Jackson play in the playoffs?
Jackson has not played since Week 13 and for the second straight season, the Ravens offense has been exposed for the lack of talent and creativity with him off of the field. Jackson was not playing his best football prior to injury, but this offense still can only go as far he can take them since there is a clear deficiency of talent on the offensive side of this roster.
If Jackson does not play, it is hard to see the Ravens being able to score enough points to push the Bengals.
Even if Jackson does play, he hasn’t played since Week 13 and we should not expect him to just return with ceiling expectations, more just giving the Ravens a better chance in a low probability spot to pull off an upset.
On the positive end for the Ravens, their defense does have talent.
Since Week 9, the Ravens:
- have allowed a touchdown on just 11.0% of opponent drives, the lowest rate in the league.
- have allowed 1.37 points per drive (second) and 4.8 yards per play (sixth) over that span.
The Ravens have not been challenged heavily by offenses over that span (Saints, Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos, Steelers twice, Cleveland, Atlanta, and the Bengals) but in both outings against the Bengals they have held their own:
- The Bengals averaged 4.9 yards per play in Week 5 (24th in the league that week) and 4.0 yards per play last week (29th).
- Against everyone else, the Bengals have averaged 5.6 yards per play on offense.
» Read the full Ravens vs Bengals Worksheet breakdown
Bengals vs Ravens Prediction
The Bengals are predicted to win this AFC Wild Card game with a 80% implied probability based on current betting lines. The moneyline model also predicts the Bengals will win with 69.3% confidence.
» Bet it Now: Bengals vs Ravens
Bengals vs Ravens Odds, Spread, Total & Moneyline
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Ravens | +8.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +310 |
| Bengals | -8.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | -400 |
Bengals vs Ravens Team Comparison:
| Baltimore | Rank | @ | Cincinnati | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 18.5 | Implied Total | 25 | ||
| 20.6 | 19 | Points/Gm | 26.1 | 7 |
| 18.5 | 3 | Points All./Gm | 20.1 | 6 |
| 61.9 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 65.8 | 7 |
| 61.6 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 10 |
| 5.5 | 12 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 11 |
| 5.3 | 13 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 15 |
| 50.00% | 3 | Rush% | 37.89% | 28 |
| 50.00% | 30 | Pass% | 62.11% | 5 |
| 38.78% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 40.86% | 9 |
| 61.22% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 59.14% | 24 |
Ravens Best Bets Against the Spread:
- The Ravens have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.70 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Ravens have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Ravens have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Ravens have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Ravens have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.65 Units / 46% ROI)
First & Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction & Bet:
J.K Dobbins (RB, Ravens) is our pick for the 1st TD Scorer bet in this AFC Wild Card Weekend matchup.
Joe Burrow (QB, Bengals) is our pick for an anytime TD Scorer bet in this AFC Wild Card Weekend matchup.
» Get Anytime & 1st TD Scorer Bets for every Wild Card game
Bengals Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals have gone 12-4 (+7.45 Units / 42.21% ROI).
- Bengals are 12-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.85 Units / 7.44% ROI
- Bengals are 6-9 when betting the Over for -3.95 Units / -22.38% ROI
- Bengals are 9-6 when betting the Under for +2.4 Units / 13.68% ROI
Ravens Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Ravens have gone 7-9 (-3.05 Units / -16.22% ROI).
- Ravens are 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.85% ROI
- Ravens are 5-12 when betting the Over for -8.2 Units / -43.85% ROI
- Ravens are 12-5 when betting the Under for +6.5 Units / ROI
Continue reading from BetMGM's Ravens vs Bengals game breakdown
Don’t Miss out on our Playoff Recommendations
This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot, going 74% in our last 46 NFL bets to close the season:
- Last 5 weeks in NFL: 34-12 (74%)
- Final 2022 NCAAF Bowls: 18-8 (69%) inc 6-0 (100%) on elevated plays
- Final 2022 NFL Futures: 17-5 (77%)
- Final 2022 NFL Regular Season: 92-63 (59%)
- Final 2022 NFL Computer Totals: 37-15 (71%)
- Final 2022 NCAAF Regular Season: 126-94 (57%)
It’s truly been a great season and we’re excited for the playoffs, as it’s been extremely good to us in years past.
Historically, we’ve been outstanding on NFL Playoffs:
- 159-93 (62%) lifetime playoff record
- 25-10 (71%) lifetime Super Bowl record
- 16-6 (73%) on Super Bowl week releases last year (including props)
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