Sharp Football's Rich Hribrar breaks down this Chiefs vs Jaguars AFC Divisional matchup for the 4:30pm ET kickoff on Saturday, Jan 21:
The Divisional Round kicks off with a regular season rematch. These teams met back in Week 10 in Kansas City, with the Chiefs winning 27-17. Kansas City got out to a 20-0 lead in the second quarter and never looked back despite losing the turnover battle 0-to-3. The closest Jacksonville ever cut the lead to was 10 points.
The Jaguars also had a unique approach with conflicting points of aggression. They opened the game up with an onside kick which they recovered but proceeded to punt from the Kansas City 39 and the Kansas City 45 on both of their opening possessions. If the Jaguars are going to pull off the upset here, they will need to keep their foot fully on the gas here with no hesitation.
That is because the more things changed this season, the more the results remained the same for the Chiefs as the league’s premier offense. Kansas City closed the regular season 14-3, leading the league in yards per play (6.4), points per drive (2.68), and touchdown rate per drive (33.0%), while finishing second in red zone touchdown rate (69.4%) and second in third down conversion rate (48.7%). They also had the lowest rate of sets of downs to even reach third down in the league at 37.5%.
Defensively, the Chiefs were the mixed bag we have seen from them in recent seasons. They rank ninth in yards allowed per play (5.1 yards) and 12th in third down conversion rate allowed (38.3%), but they are 19th in points allowed per drive (2.01) and 26th in touchdown rate allowed per drive (23.4%) due to allowing a 67.3% red zone touchdown conversion rate, which is 31st in the league.
The Chiefs are 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in the Divisional Round under Patrick Mahomes, averaging 36.5 points per game.
The Jaguars dug themselves an early grave last week falling behind 0-27 to the Chargers but managed to pull off the third-largest playoff comeback for a 31-30 victory. They also became the first playoff team to pull out a win despite having five turnovers.
» Read the full Chiefs vs Jaguars Worksheet breakdown
Jaguars vs Chiefs Prediction
The Chiefs are predicted to win this AFC Divisional game with an 81.82% implied probability based on current betting lines. The moneyline model also predicts the Chiefs will win with 72.8% confidence.
» Bet it Now: Chiefs vs Jaguars
Jaguars vs Chiefs Odds, Spread, Totals & Moneyline:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Jaguars | +8.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +333 |
| Chiefs | -8.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -450 |
Jaguars vs Chiefs Team Comparison:
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | Spread | -8.5 | ||
| 22.25 | Implied Total | 30.75 | ||
| 24.2 | 9 | Points/Gm | 29.2 | 1 |
| 21.1 | 12 | Points All./Gm | 21.7 | 16 |
| 63.4 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 64.4 | 13 |
| 65.3 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.3 | 23 |
| 5.7 | 9 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.4 | 1 |
| 5.4 | 15 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 9 |
| 41.07% | 19 | Rush% | 38.12% | 25 |
| 58.93% | 14 | Pass% | 61.88% | 8 |
| 41.96% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 38.33% | 4 |
| 58.04% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 61.67% | 29 |
Chiefs Best Bets Against the Spread
- The Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chiefs have hit the Team Total Under in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Chiefs have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- The Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Chiefs have scored first in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Jaguars Best Bets Against the Spread:
- The Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+9.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Jaguars have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+8.80 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Jaguars have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+8.40 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Jaguars have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 32% ROI)
First & Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction & Bet:
Travis Kelce (TE, Chiefs) is our pick for the 1st TD scorer bet in this AFC Divisional matchup.
Kadarius Toney (WR, Chiefs) is our pick for an Anytime TD scorer bet in this AFC Divisional matchup.
» Get Anytime & 1st TD Scorer Bets for every Wild Card game
Chiefs Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 7-10 (-4.1 Units / -21.81% ROI).
- Chiefs are 14-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.35 Units / 13.18% ROI
- Chiefs are 8-9 when betting the Over for -1.9 Units / -10.16% ROI
- Chiefs are 9-8 when betting the Under for +0.2 Units / 1.07% ROI
Jaguars Against the Spread Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars have gone 9-9 (-0.9 Units / -4.57% ROI).
- Jaguars are 10-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 12.66% ROI
- Jaguars are 9-9 when betting the Over for -0.95 Units / -4.79% ROI
- Jaguars are 9-9 when betting the Under for -0.9 Units / ROI
Continue reading from BetMGM's Chiefs vs Jaguars game breakdown
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