Quarterbacks are next up in our series looking at ways to gain exposure by taking the best discount site by site.
QBs are the most difficult evaluation overall because their value is decided by more factors than just a straight discount due to the need to stack and correlate.
That being said, knowing the discounts site by site is still important.
Keep in mind that with the 300-yard bonus, pocket passers are more valuable on DraftKings than Underdog or FFPC. Also, the top-scoring QBs are more important on half PPR Underdog as quarterback scoring makes up a greater part of your weekly total.
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Discounted Best Ball Quarterbacks:
- Patrick Mahomes is going first on Underdog and FFPC and third on DraftKings. He goes between pick 19-22 on all three sites. While it is good to take him with Travis Kelce, obviously try also mixing him in with Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins for Week 17 correlations and come back with value Chiefs later. My favorite of those at ADP is Skyy Moore. Mahomes had 10 weeks over 300 yards last year, the most of the big three.
- Jalen Hurts goes second everywhere but DraftKings, where he is first. This makes little sense to me as he is in my view both gave you the fewest bonuses of the big three and also profiles as the least likely to hit the bonus moving forward. That said, you need all three of the top guys on all sites
- Josh Allen is third on two sites and second on DraftKings. He has been slipping the most as well and is often found in the mid-third round. At that price, he has stand-alone value apart from stacking with Stefon Diggs.
- Lamar Jackson is now QB4 and goes within one pick on all three sites. He is very hard to stack with his No. 1 weapon since their ADPs are very similar. On FFPC, you can make this happen because of TE premium scoring, but value is very flat around the turn. I wouldn’t mind a few turns with Mark Andrews and Jackson. I know they are supposed to pass more, but I am least likely to want him on DraftKings given his lower chances of hitting the bonus.
- Joe Burrow has passed Justin Fields on two sites and is 6th on DraftKings. His ADP there is 40, so there is no real value since he only gave you the bonus five times. He is a guy I mostly take when he falls and I have one of his weapons. It is hard to get excited about stacking him with Tyler Boyd or Irv Smith.
- Justin Fields has dropped the most of any of the top QBs since the start of the draft season. He is a favorite of mine on all three sites. While he is unlikely to get you a lot of passing bonuses, he contributed three rushing bonuses. After Week 5 when they let him loose, Fields was fifth in usable weeks and tied for first in points above usable with Mahomes at 9.3 per game. He now has better weapons and an offensive line than last year.
- Justin Herbert is QB7 on all three sites and goes within one pick, making him especially interesting on DraftKings. In a down year, he still gave you five bonuses off of the 10 he had in 2021, which is elite. He also gains Kellen Moore at OC.
- Trevor Lawrence goes in a tight window as well. No discount per site and there is a lot of projecting in his ADP. Even though he was QB7 overall last season, he was 13th in points per game, ninth in usable weeks, and only gave you 3.9 points above usable, also 13th.
- Deshaun Watson is another quarterback in a tight window without discounts. One of my most rostered QBs early, I have had less as he has moved up slightly while most QBs have dropped, allowing me to mix my exposures. I remain convinced, however, that his rust was because of being off two years and improvement is coming. He is a very solid pick
- Anthony Richardson is the 10th QB on Underdog and 13th on the other two sites. As a massive projection, he is a mix-in guy on Underdog and a bit more on the other sites. I hope I get a discount if how raw he is shows up in camp and early preseason. When I do take him, I take him as if he is going to be a stud and don’t hedge with a third quarterback.
- Dak Prescott has been falling due to his going from Kellen Moore to Mike McCarthy, but he has top-five ability and good weapons. They also could struggle to lean on the run as much as people think with Ezekiel Elliott gone. He goes 12 picks later on Underdog than DraftKings and seven picks later on FFPC, which are good discounts.
- Tua Tagovailoa goes from 11th to 14th with the latest being on DraftKings. He is so easy to take if you already have Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle and has a great Week 17 matchup with Baltimore. Worried about concussions? Take some Mike White in the last round on teams that have the stack but missed out on Tua for sneaky huge leverage.
- Daniel Jones goes much earlier on DraftKings as QB10 compared to 14th and 15th on UnderDog and FFPC respectively. A decent pick still on all three sites and easy to stack late if you miss on Darren Waller. I love him as my second quarterback.
- Aaron Rodgers is being slept on, but he has been released from a very conservative offense. He does go earlier on DraftKings with the expectation he will get you a good bit of bonuses. My only hesitation is on teams I don’t have Garrett Wilson. I don’t like Allen Lazard’s price or trust the later weapons much either.
- Russell Wilson goes 10 picks earlier on DraftKings. He looked shot at times last year but was a top-five QB often after Nathaniel Hackett was fired. I have really come around on him lately as he is very easy to stack even if you don’t have Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton. I am very high on Greg Dulcich and Marvin Mims. Even Tim Patrick could give nice spikes from the last round.
- Derek Carr is very hard for me to get excited about with Taysom Hill around to snipe touchdowns, but he goes QB25 on DraftKings compared to QB19 on the other two sites.
- Jordan Love has been gaining some Twitter steam. As a guy who goes similarly on all sites, I mostly take him when he drops. He looked like a complete bust before last year and is in a conservative offense.
- Kyler Murray went from undraftable to a very nice upside play. He is most expensive by far on DraftKings, which makes little sense. His ADP has dropped over four rounds on Underdog since the draft. A lot of that is based on useless speculation that the Cardinals will tank.
- Matthew Stafford is the last quarterback I feel comfortable with as a 2nd QB without taking a third. He is an easy stack with Cooper Kupp.
The rest of the QBs are guys I will add as stacking partners and third options as needed. For those, I am less concerned about site discount and more concerned with filling out that specific roster.
QB is by far the most challenging difference from last year, so finding value becomes tantamount to success.
This is part of a best ball strategy series from expert best ball player Tod Burros.
