As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Sam Howell, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson, and every other notable Commander, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- It would be reasonable to assume Eric Bieniemy brings a pass-heavy, high-paced offense similar to the Chiefs' attack with him to Washington, but that does not appear to be what Ron Rivera and the front office want. GM Martin Mayhew said he wanted the team to be “two to one run pass.” The Commanders have been 25th in neutral pass rate under Rivera.
- Terry McLaurin has not finished better than the WR24 in per-game scoring thus far in his career, but that is not really his fault. He ranked 16th among all receivers with at least 50 targets in yards per route run last season despite finishing 60th among 85 qualifying receivers in inaccurate target rate. 13.5% of his targets over the last three seasons have been deemed inaccurate.
- Antonio Gibson’s routes per game jumped from 13.9 when J.D. McKissic was healthy last season to 18.1 without McKissic. The targets per game did not follow, but routes are what matter for a player who has consistently been targeted on around 23% of his routes throughout his career.
2022 Commanders Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 321 (24th)
- Total Offense: 5,615 (20th)
- Plays: 1,140 (4th)
- Offensive TDs: 33 (20th)
- Points Per Drive: 1.55 (27th)
- EPA+ Per Play: -6.6 (25th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 33.15 seconds (31st)
2023 Commanders Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Ron Rivera
- Offensive Coordinator: Eric Bieniemy
Likely looking for a role that will allow him to call plays, Eric Bieniemy made the move from Kansas City to Washington following the Super Bowl.
It would be reasonable to assume Bieniemy brings a pass-heavy, high-paced offense similar to the Chiefs' attack with him to Washington, but that does not appear to be what Ron Rivera and GM Martin Mayhew want.
After the season, Mayhew said he wanted the team to be “two to one run pass,” which is an objectively hilarious statement both because not even the Bears were close to that ratio last year and the Commanders were already one of the most run-heavy teams in the league.
The Commanders have been 25th in neutral pass rate under Rivera and finished last year 27th in pass rate over expected (-7.6%).
It feels notable Washington interviewed names like Anthony Lynn and Greg Roman before landing on Bieniemy, suggesting the former Chiefs play caller will emphasize the run.
Even if Bieniemy wants to open up the offense, will he be able to with Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett at quaterback? Will Washington’s receiver trio get the good quarterback play and passing game they deserve?
I am pressing X for doubt.
2022 Commanders Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 629 (17th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 41.6% (31st)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -7.6% (27th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 24.6% (26th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 53% (27th)
2023 Commanders Passing Game Preview:
The Commanders will face the fourth-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Sam Howell, Jacoby Brissett
- WR: Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown
- WR: Jahan Dotson, Marcus Kemp
- WR: Curtis Samuel, Dax Milne
- TE: Logan Thomas, John Bates
After an offseason of talking up Sam Howell as their starter, Rivera opened June talking about a competition between the young quarterback and Jacoby Brissett for the starting job. Later that month, however, he confirmed Howell will enter training camp as the starter.
It makes sense for the Commanders to make Howell work for the job, but it would be a surprise if he is not the starter in Week 1.
There is not a lot to go on for Howell, who completed 11-of-19 passes for 169 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in his one start last season.
At one point in his college career, Howell was considered a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick, so he is not exactly a normal late-round quarterback.
Still, he does not have the kind of draft capital that gives young quarterbacks job security.
If this offense continues to lean toward the run, which makes sense with a young quarterback and the organization’s offseason comments, Howell is unlikely to see a ton of passing volume.
The Commanders were 17th in dropbacks last season despite being in the top third of the league in negative game script.
Howell could offer some rushing upside, though.
While it was partly down to an offensive line that could not protect him, Howell rushed for 828 yards his final season at North Carolina and put up a 5-35-1 line against the Cowboys last season.
If he can win and hold onto the job, that rushing upside will make him a factor in two-quarterback formats.
Brissett was brought in as veteran insurance over the offseason. He is coming off a quietly solid run as the Browns’ starter, finishing 11th in EPA per play and fifth in completion rate over expected during the first 12 weeks.
It would not be a surprise if Brissett gets some starts this season. While he is unlikely to produce quarterback value outside of deeper 2QB leagues, that would not be a disaster for Washington’s pass catchers.
*Preseason Update: Terry McLaurin left the second preseason game with a toe injury. X-rays were negative, but his Week 1 status is up in the air. He could be limited even if he suits up for the opener.
Jahan Dotson has torn up the preseason, going for over 100 yards on less than a full game of snaps, and would be the clear No. 1 option in the passing game if McLaurin is forced to miss time. Even if McLaurin is fine, Dotson should probably be moved up draft boards given the volume he has seen this August.
Brissett showed a willingness to throw the ball downfield last season, finishing 12th in the percentage of throws to the intermediate and deep parts of the field, and facilitated a WR12 performance from Amari Cooper over the first 12 weeks.
Cooper’s 16 PPR points per game over that span would be a career-high for Terry McLaurin, who has not finished better than the WR24 in per-game scoring thus far in his career.
That is not really his fault, though. He ranked 16th among all receivers with at least 50 targets in yards per route run last season despite finishing 60th among 85 qualifying receivers in inaccurate target rate.
13.5% of his targets over the last three seasons have been deemed inaccurate.
It remains to be seen if that will be better this season – it likely would be with Brissett – and volume is an ever-looming concern in this offense, especially if Jahan Dotson takes a step forward in his sophomore season.
McLaurin was 19th in targets last season even with Dotson missing time.
It also has to be noted the Chiefs were 29th in receiver target rate during Bieniemy’s tenure, although the presence of the best tight end in the league contributed to that – they were third in the percentage of tight end targets over that span.
McLaurin has also scored four, five, and five touchdowns in the last three seasons with a usage profile that matches those totals. Dotson (8) actually out-targeted McLaurin (7) on passes to the end zone last season.
The good news is all of that is baked into McLaurin’s price. He is also a good receiver, and it is possible this offense surprises or he gets some extra touchdown luck, giving him some upside potential.
Dotson did see good usage around the end zone as a rookie, but he still out-paced his expected touchdown total with seven scores in 12 games.
His efficiency numbers did not look quite as good. He finished 52nd in yards per route run among qualifying receivers (1.39), was 67th in targets per route (16.2%), and caught 57.4% of his targets. Of course, he suffered from the same quarterback issues as McLaurin, finishing 15th in his percentage of targets deemed inaccurate.
The coaching change also raises some questions about the pecking order.
Dotson was clearly the No. 2 after his return from injury last season, seeing 18% of the targets compared to 12% for Curtis Samuel, but the Chiefs heavily utilized slot receivers under Bieniemy.
Samuel played 69.8% of his snaps from the slot last season while Dotson was inside on 28.1% of his.
Dotson has a path to 100 targets but will likely see some regression in his touchdown production. He is a fine pick outside the top 35 receivers.
As mentioned above, Samuel nearly disappeared from the offense as Dotson took on a bigger role last season. He was the WR65 in per-game PPR scoring from Week 10 until the end of the season.
Samuel has consistently been an inefficient receiver. He was 59th in yards per route run in 2022 and 78th in air yards per target. He has supplemented his receiving work with rushing a la a diet Deebo Samuel, contributing a 38-187-1 line on the ground last year.
He needs passing volume to really be a fantasy contributor, however. Unless the new coordinator brings the kind of target volume he saw early last season (58 over the first seven weeks, 13th in the league), it is tough to see a path to consistent fantasy value for Samuel even in PPR leagues.
Somewhat surprisingly, Logan Thomas still sits atop the tight end depth chart in Washington.
He is coming off a rough season in which he finished 28th among 29 qualifying tight ends in yards per route run, 28th in yards per catch, and 27th in yards after catch per reception. He also has a long history of injuries and will be 32 before the season begins. Those two factors make it difficult to believe he will get back to his 2020 form.
Along with a possible return to form, the argument for Thomas is the heavy tight end usage in Kansas City under Bieniemy, but it is not controversial to say Thomas is not Travis Kelce. Unlike with the Chiefs, the strength of this passing game is at receiver.
The depth behind Thomas was more interesting before Armani Rogers suffered an Achilles injury, but 2022 fifth-rounder Cole Turner was a wide receiver early in his college career and carries some pass-catching upside.
Rivera said Turner “had a great spring,” so he is a name to watch in the preseason.
Thomas could end up being a volume-based play, especially in PPR formats, but Turner emerging would be more interesting from a fantasy perspective.
2022 Commanders Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 509 (3rd)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.4 (26th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.29 (23rd)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 71% (16th)
2023 Commanders Running Game Preview:
The Commanders will face the 16th-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson, Chris Rodriguez
- OL: Charles Leno, Chris Paul, Nick Gates, Sam Cosmi, Andrew Wylie
Washington worked on the offensive line this offseason by signing Andrew Wylie and Nick Gates as well as drafting Ricky Stromberg in the third round, but the interior line looks at best unproven, especially if Andrew Norwell is released as expected.
While a great story, Brian Robinson struggled with efficiency as a rookie, finishing 30th among 38 qualifying running backs in yards per carry and 32nd in yards after contact per rush.
He can blame at least some of those struggles on the offense.
Among that group of 38, Robinson faced eight men in the box on 45.4% of his carries (8th) and ranked seventh-worst in yards before contact per attempt, three spots ahead of Antonio Gibson.
Robinson needs this passing game and offensive line to improve, but even if does, he comes with fantasy question marks.
Robinson ran 81 total routes in 12 games as a rookie, a number that ranked 77th among running backs, and posted a yards per route run of 0.74 (60th).
That is not a surprise given his profile, and it is unlikely he will take a big step forward as a pass catcher this season with Gibson around.
If he does not develop as a pass catcher, Robinson will be an early-down back playing in an offense with quarterback and offensive line questions.
That was the exact situation last year when Robinson averaged 9.64 half-PPR points (35th) despite touching the ball nearly 19 times a game from Week 6 to Week 17.
There are outs here. Robinson got a little unlucky from a touchdown perspective, the offense could get better, and he could catch more passes even if he is not the primary option in the passing game.
Even so, he looks like a floor-play RB3.
Gibson was right with Robinson over that 11-game stretch in PPR formats despite touching the ball 82 fewer times and playing one fewer game.
He also should see more usage in the passing game this year. His routes per game jumped from 13.9 when J.D. McKissic was healthy last season to 18.1 without McKissic. The targets per game did not follow, but routes are what matter for a player who has consistently been targeted on around 23% of his routes throughout his career.
Gibson was even more unlucky from an expected touchdown perspective than Robinson last year, and he and Robinson split goal-to-go work nearly evenly when both were healthy. Robinson had 1.2 touches per game and Gibson 0.8 in those situations.
Gibson does not have the target concerns of Robinson and would benefit similarly if the offense and offensive line improved.
Gibson is the better fantasy bet in PPR and half-PPR formats, and it is possible to make an argument for him in standard leagues as well, especially given the likely lower cost.
Sixth-round rookie Chris Rodriguez is worth watching if Robinson struggles with his efficiency again this year or suffers an injury. He has the skill set to immediately step into that role on the offense.
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