One remaining obstacle we face in the fantasy community as content providers and consumers is understanding that rankings, projections, tiers, and average draft positions are all different and serve different purposes.

I wrote a primer highlighting the use of player projections combined with rankings and ADP, but there is so much more on the table.

My season-long rankings and projections focus on the probable outcomes for a player based on top-down production on a per-play basis and projected game script.

Player production is based on that team volume. We can tweak volume and efficiency for a range of outcomes per player, but that is the simplest explanation of how the projection sauce is made.

While those projections give us a range of season-long production and have implications for listing players in a linear format (rankings), even when those full-season numbers are accurate, they fail to capture the weekly impact and the pockets of production that are relevant to our weekly game of fantasy football.

Projecting Joe Mixon for 1,255 yards and nine touchdowns on 270 touches (his 2021 totals) paints a nice picture of his season-long outlook, but any gamer who rostered Mixon will also tell you that in no way did he fulfill those season-long numbers in creating a balanced weekly impact. This happens to all but a handful of players during every NFL season.

That is an anecdotal example to make a larger point, but there is a litany of examples that fits the point I am making.

There are very few players at each position that just smash weekly over the course of the fantasy season, and we are hopeful to be in on the remainder of the players when they strike the hottest.

That is where player tiers come in.

A lot of player tiers are just rankings chopped up into sections.

While the rankings are more focused on a probable tally of season-long output for a week-to-week game, I prefer to structure my tiers based on how similarly players accrue their fantasy points and by the archetypes of players.

By doing this, it allows me to notice actionable gaps in player pricing per tier which in turn allows for arbitrage in fantasy drafts.

It also highlights some longer-odds players who have more potential than originally perceived.

Arbitrage in fantasy football is driven strongest by how production is accrued, and the order of those players (rankings) is driven by the opportunities (on a player and team level) that each player receives.

Our projections are inherently going to be wrong on those projected opportunities often. Team situations are influenced by a plethora of things. The game script, injuries to the player himself, injuries to surrounding teammates, ineffective play, player breakouts, and so on. That is just the game.

Understanding how a player is used allows us to find prospects who could benefit from that variance. If we are wrong on the opportunity projection, then a lower-tiered player could be an arbitrage opportunity.

Arbitrage becomes even more important at running back due to the different draft approaches.

Whether you are a Robust-RB, Zero-RB, Anchor-RB, or going in a different direction, each of those builds prioritizes a specific type of player.

Linear player rankings also start serving the position injustice at a certain point.

The margins between the RB35 and the RB55 are not nearly as wide as a list would suggest.

While there is not a direct overlap to the individual player rankings, the order of these tiers is how I prioritize drafting the positions from an archetypical stance.

While that can be confusing for a player ranked highly on a linear list versus a specific tier he is in, I will do my best to incorporate detailed thoughts regarding draft capital in those events throughout the player breakdowns.

One final bit of housekeeping, I will be updating and adding analysis to these tiers all summer long.

This premium article is part of the Sharp Fantasy Football Draft Kit, one of the best resources to get you prepared for the 2023 fantasy football season.

Tier 1 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Christian McCaffrey
  • Austin Ekeler
  • Saquon Barkley

We are starting at the top with our backs that have proven fantasy pedigree over multiple seasons contributing at every level of offense.

The way the fantasy landscape has changed has left us with a finite number of running backs that operate as the team’s leading rusher, are high-target earners, play on third downs, and serve as the team’s goal line back. Not many are checking all of those boxes these days, and these are the best of that group.

The only thing that has stopped Christan McCaffrey from being a fantasy stud has been injuries.

Over his past five seasons, he has been the RB3, RB1, RB1, RB5, and RB2 in points per game.

After joining the 49ers, McCaffrey was an RB1 scorer in eight of his final 10 games with just one week outside of the top-17 scorers at the position over that span.

Joining San Francisco, McCaffrey was a high-value touch machine.

Through six games with Carolina, McCaffrey had just one single carry or target inside the 10-yard line.

After joining the 49ers, he had 19 carries and three targets inside the 10-yard line.

Only Austin Ekeler ran more pass routes and caught more passes at the position than McCaffrey after he joined the Niners while he paced the position in receiving yards. McCaffrey averaged a robust 8.9 yards per catch with four receiving touchdowns in San Francisco.

If looking for something to monitor looking from a wider lens, the 49ers did alleviate McCaffrey’s workload when Elijah Mitchell was available, and that was not entirely induced by game script.

In four regular season games with Mitchell active, McCaffrey averaged 15.0 touches per game (with one game over 15 touches) compared to 23.5 touches per game (with one game with fewer than 17 touches) the other six weeks.

Austin Ekeler has been a top-12 scorer in points per game in each of the past four seasons, closing as the RB6, RB12, RB3, and RB1 in per-game scoring over that span.

He was forced to carry the Los Angeles offense a year ago given all of the injuries on the Chargers. He had a career-high 311 touches and led the NFL in total touchdowns (18) for the second consecutive year.

With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missing so much time, Ekeler led the team with career-highs in targets (127) and receptions (107).

The forced volume did sap his previously prestige efficiency, however.

Ekeler averaged just 6.7 yards per catch and 5.7 yards per target, the lowest rates in his career by far.

Entering the season at age 28 in the final year of his contract, the Chargers and Ekeler have hinted at reducing his workload, but the team added no viable candidates on the depth chart to warrant significant touches or threaten Ekeler's workhorse status.

Playing a full season (he did rest Week 18) for the first time since his rookie year, Saquon Barkley was the RB5 overall and in points per game last season.

Barkley was third in the NFL in touches (352), fifth in yards from scrimmage per game (103.1), and tied for 10th with 10 total touchdowns. He led all running backs in rate of snaps (75.4%) on the season.

Barkley had seven RB1 scoring weeks and just three weeks lower than RB17 all season. The Giants have added no tangible candidates to push Barkley off of significant touches again in 2023.

Although Barkley is a locked-in three-down workhorse, one thing that does give me some slight pause with him versus the backs in the next tier is that the Giants have an absolutely rough layout this season. Barkley has our 29th-ranked rushing schedule. The next two backs take a touch more faith over previous results as bellcows, but have much lighter projected schedules with high upside.

Tier 2 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Tony Pollard
  • Bijan Robinson

A mini tier of two ultra-upside backs that are on paper ready to carry their backfields.

Tony Pollard is finally set up to have the keys to the Dallas backfield for a full season.

Pollard followed up his breakout in 2021 with an RB8 overall scoring season last year. He racked up 1,378 total yards and 12 touchdowns.

Among 42 running backs with 100 or more carries last season, Pollard was second in the rate of carries to go for 10 or more yards (16.1%) and first in yards after contact per carry (3.82).

Pollard’s touches and yardage have now gone up from the season prior in all four years of his career. With 232 touches last season, there is still room for that streak to continue with the Cowboys releasing Ezekiel Elliott.

Pollard has just 13 career games reaching 15 touches, but in those games has averaged 19.6 PPR points and 112.6 yards from scrimmage with 13 total touchdowns.

In the three games that he has played without Elliott, Pollard has scored 31.2, 33.7, and 21.8 PPR points.

Even after Elliott returned last season and Pollard shared duties while operating as the lead back, he still averaged 16.3 touches per game. That is a realistic ballpark to anticipate for Pollard this season, even if Dallas does add a back.

But we do still need to see Dallas let Pollard operate with freedom near the end zone.

If there is one area where Pollard is unlikely to have as much fortune this season is scoring touchdowns from long-range. Pollard had a career-high 12 scores last season, but just three came inside of the 10-yard line.

This is where the addition (or Dallas bypassing the addition) of a veteran goal-line presence looms large.

The absence of Elliott can unlock his path to the goal line rushes as a potential solvent to the long-range touchdown concern. Through four seasons, Pollard has just 18 carries inside of the 10-yard line and just 11 inside of the 5-yard line.

After racking up 4,215 yards and 7.0 yards per touch over three seasons at Texas, Bijan Robinson is arguably the best all-around running back prospect since Saquon Barkley in 2018. He has a 95th percentile career production score in the prospect model while checking every box we look for in a prospect.

Robinson just turned 21 years old in January. His yardage and touchdown production increased every season of his collegiate career.

As a rusher, Robinson averaged 3.3 yards per carry on rushing attempts in which he was hit behind the line of scrimmage last season. Not only is that the highest rate in this class, but it is the second-highest rate that Sports Info Solutions has recorded on 75-plus carries since they tracked data in 2016.

Robinson led this class in 2022 in yards created after contact (1,006) while forcing a missed tackle on 32.2% of his attempts, second among this group.

Out of the backfield, Robinson averaged 13.4 yards per catch over his collegiate career. We are not talking about stacking dump-offs here, either. He was the only back in this draft class to have 100 air yards this past season (105), accounting for a class-high 8.2% of the Texas air yards.

For good measure, Robinson also did not allow a sack and was credited with just four pressures allowed on his 78 snaps in pass protection this season.

With Robinson joining a scheme that led the NFL in plays out of pistol in 2022, we do not need to overcomplicate things.

Atlanta running backs led the NFL in rushing yards (2,209) and yards per carry (4.9). They ranked second in expected points added per carry (0.04), were third in success rate (44.0%), and third in rate of carries to result in a first down or touchdown (25.7%).

That was with a running back room that was largely a sum of parts.

Each of the past six running backs selected inside of the top-10 of the NFL Draft (Barkley, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, and Todd Gurley) have finished inside of the top-10 of PPR scoring of their rookie seasons.

The only real question for Robinson is what kind of receiving ceiling can we squeeze out of him in the Atlanta offense since Atlanta running backs combined for 66 total targets in 2022.

Tier 3 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Nick Chubb
  • Josh Jacobs
  • Derrick Henry

Our third tier of backs are proven workhorse runners and fantasy RB1 options, but all come with a red flag that prevents them from having extremely strong odds to lead the position in overall scoring.

Nick Chubb posted career highs in carries (302), rushing yardage (1,525), yards from scrimmage (1,764), and total touchdowns (13) in 2022.

Chubb has now averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry in all of his five seasons in the league. He is the only player in league history to average at least 5.0 yards per carry with 100 or more carries in each of their first five seasons in the league.

Chubb handled 56.8% of the team’s rushing attempts in 2022, which was his highest rate since his second season in the league in 2019. He may be tasked to extend that workload further since the depth chart has been thinned out with Jerome Ford (who did not play an offensive snap in 2023) currently the RB2.

Even if you are not buying in on Deshaun Watson rebounding this season, his addition, and the changes in this offense as a byproduct, have an impact on getting Chubb touches in more advantageous situations as a runner.

In 2022, he was fourth in the NFL in rushing attempts with three or more wide receivers on the field (159) after 146 total over the two seasons prior. His light-box rate was the highest of his career while simultaneously having the lowest heavy-box rate of his career.

Year% Attempts with 3+ WRsLight Box %Heavy Box %
202037.9%11.6%55.8%
202132.5%13.6%56.6%
202252.6%21.5%41.7%

The issue for Chubb will always come down to how many receptions we can get. Chubb has just seven career games catching more than three passes.

Last season, Chubb did not even catch a single pass on third down and ran just 17 pass routes.

The lack of experience on this depth chart can open up an avenue for more receptions. Kareem Hunt was third in the NFL last season among running backs in routes run on third down.

Any uptick in receptions is welcome and makes Chubb less dependent on touchdowns.

In games with a touchdown, Chubb has averaged 22.5 PPR points per game compared to 8.5 points per game without a touchdown. In 38 career games without a score, Chubb has been a top-12 scorer just once while a top-24 scorer in just 10 of those games.

The Raiders declined to pick up the fifth-year option for Josh Jacobs last spring. They had to use the franchise tag on him this offseason after Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards (1,653) and yards from scrimmage (2,053).

Jacobs handled a career-high 393 touches last season, which also led the league. He played 74.5% of the offensive snaps, which trailed only Saquon Barkley (75.4%) in the position.

Not just predicated on volume, among all backs with 100 or more carries in 2022, Jacobs ranked:

  • First in the rate of runs to result in a first down or touchdown (27.4%)
  • Second in success rate (44.2%)
  • Seventh in EPA per rush (0.02)
  • Eighth in yards after contact per carry (3.40)
  • 11th in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (12.1%)

Jacobs still has not signed his franchise tag and did not show up to the voluntary offseason program as he attempts to coax out a longer commitment from the organization following his huge season. We still have to handle this situation with the possibility that Jacobs could threaten to hold out, but I am echoing what we talked about earlier with Saquon Barkley in that I still believe that has lower odds of happening based on how poorly it went for Le'Veon Bell and his career a few years ago.

After 53 total receptions over his first two seasons, Jacobs has 54 and 53 receptions in the past two seasons.

The interesting component here is that, like Chubb, Jacobs did not play in obvious passing situations. Jacobs only ran 21 pass routes on third down all of last season with just one reception.

Also, we should talk about how we are now buying high on Jacobs a year after buying in on the lowest cost of his career.

These situations are always tricky and rarely pay out from a value stance. There is a strong chance that 2022 was the best season we have from Jacobs.

Over the past 10 years, Jacobs is just the 13th running back to clear 375 touches in a season. Just one of those running backs came back and scored more PPR points per game in the following season. Just three matched their per-game touch totals.

Going back to 1992, there have been 71 seasons in which a back has cleared 375 touches.

67.7% of those running backs had a decline in points per game the following season with an average loss of -2.7 points per game. 77.5% of those backs averaged fewer touches per game the next season with an average loss of -3.2 touches per game.

Derrick Henry was the Tennessee offense once again in 2022.

Henry led the NFL in rushing attempts (349) for the third time over the past four seasons, accruing 1,936 total yards and 13 touchdowns.

Henry even set career highs in the passing game, catching 33-of-41 targets for 398 yards.

Though the counting stats and usage for Henry remain robust, there have been some signs of wear and tear with his efficiency.

Henry’s EPA per rush has declined from the season prior in each of the past two seasons. The Tennessee offense did not do him any favors here, as Henry’s 0.79 yards before contact per carry in 2022 was the lowest rate in that department he has had since 2018.

Henry turned 29 in January, and there were early rumblings this offseason that he was available via trade.

Henry is in the final season of his current contract, so it would make all of the sense in the world for Tennessee to get something in return now if it is an option. Tennessee has a miserable opening schedule and could fall behind the eight-ball early this season.

If Henry were to be traded in season, you would assume that the majority of those outcomes would be positive similar to Christian McCaffrey last season. In most scenarios, a team that acquires a 29-year-old back without a future contract would be a contending team, offering more scoring opportunities.

Tier 4 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Rhamondre Stevenson
  • Joe Mixon
  • Kenneth Walker
  • Travis Etienne
  • James Conner
  • Rachaad White
  • Alexander Mattison
  • Najee Harris
  • Javonte Williams

This is our first extended tier and where the position starts to open up.

At this point in drafts, I am more focused on my current team builds and what those rosters are looking for in the running back position to max out their potential.

In the previous tiers, I am more willing to pay market costs, but this is also the stage where I am looking to catch players falling below their market value more often than not when adding them to rosters.

This is a spot where the position becomes nebulous. There is a lot of potential upside here but also is filled with options that fit the definition of “dead zone” running backs.

Through injuries and an inexperienced depth chart, the Patriots had the rare season in which they were forced to largely be a one-back offense.

Rhamondre Stevenson accounted for 49.4% of the team’s rushing attempts. That was the highest rate for a New England back since 2019 and the second-highest rate over the previous 10 seasons. Stevenson handled 35.6% of the team touches, which was the highest rate for a New England back since 2016.

As a rusher, Stevenson averaged 5.0 yards per carry (sixth among all backs with 100 or more carries).

He was more of a boom-or-bust runner as his 37.1% success rate ranked 27th among the same group. That was not entirely his fault as the Patriots ended the season dead last in run block win rate (68%) at ESPN while Pro Football Focus had them 20th in collective run blocking grade (20th) as a team.

14.3% of Stevenson’s carries gained 10 or more yards, which was sixth in the league, while his 3.81 yards after contact per carry were second, trailing only Tony Pollard.

As a pass catcher, Stevenson drew 88 targets, which was second on the team behind Jakobi Meyers (96). It was the third-most targets for a New England back over the past 30 seasons, trailing just two James White seasons. Only Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey were targeted more out of the backfield last season.

The question for Stevenson in the latter regard is did he just run into a perfect storm for that type of usage and will the Patriots go back to him carrying this backfield?

In games in which Damien Harris was available, Stevenson shared touches. In the nine games with Harris fully available, he averaged 10.5 rushing attempts and 15.0 touches per game compared to 16.6 rushing attempts and 19.9 touches per game in his seven full games with Harris limited or inactive.

But are any of these New England reserves as good as Harris? I would lean no, but the signing of Ezekiel Elliott at least gives New England a potential pivot if Stevenson has struggles near the end zone again.

Stevenson had just four red zone touchdowns on 37 opportunities.

After converting 5-of-11 carries inside of the 10-yard line for scores as a rookie, Stevenson cashed in 3-of-19 carries in that area of the field in 2022.

Say what you want about Zeke, but he was still effective at chain moving on short yardage.

He had a 68.9% 1D/TD rate on non-first downs needing 1-3 yards (13th of 42 RBs with 100-plus carries) and a 72.0% conversion rate on 3rd downs (8/42).

Zeke was also 62.5% rate inside of the 5-yard line (10/42).

The Patriots had given us multiple signals that they were going to add another veteran running back prior to the season while Stevenson himself highlighted that he wore down with more touches last season.

Whereas I do have a hard time seeing any of these current backups in New England push Stevenson heavily, I do question whether Stevenson can run back his target total from last season while having Elliott as a potential goal line thorn.

Every Patriots wide receiver missed time last season, which created a runway for those targets. We may not be enamored with the additions of JuJu Smith-Schuster or Mike Gesicki here for their fantasy appeal, but these are players taking targets in this offense in 2023.

Stevenson had a 15.7% target share on third down last season, which was third in the NFL among running backs.

Although Stevenson did accrue a lot of targets a year ago, they still were not overly beneficial to the offense.

He averaged just 6.1 yards per catch and 4.8 yards per target. 48.9% of his targets were at or behind the line of scrimmage. His volume was elevated purely through check downs and not designed passing game usage, which makes it harder to project and lean on entering this season.

We will continue to follow Joe Mixon’s standing with the organization and his off-field transgressions, but for now, Mixon has dodged every obstacle this offseason and still sits on top of the Cincinnati depth chart by himself.

With the loss of Samaje Perine, his situation even appears to be better at the moment. We still need to see if the Bengals ask him to take a pay cut or add a veteran as insurance, but his upside is not fully priced in right now, either.

That may be warranted since his 2022 output was rough as a rusher.

Despite leading the league in the percentage of runs to come against light boxes (42.2%), Mixon averaged:

  • 3.9 yards per carry (36th among all backs with 100 or more carries)
  • 2.61 yards after contact per carry (39th)
  • 8.4% of his carries went for 10 or more yards (34th)

Mixon rushed for 100 yards in just two games. Over the back half of the season, Mixon was outplayed at times by Perine, who posted higher efficiency metrics across the board.

On a positive note, as a byproduct of the amount of two-high coverages Cincinnati saw last season, Mixon did set career-highs in targets (75), receptions (60), and receiving yards (441).

Behind Mixon, however, Chris Evans (35 touches), Trayveon Williams (55 touches), and rookie Chase Brown have combined for 90 career touches in the NFL.

Does this lack of experience open up a larger role for Mixon in 2023?

Mixon has never been a zero in the passing game and has not been at Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry levels of reception output, but Mixon also has not been a three-down back as you’d assume in the NFL.

Perine operated as the long down and distance and two-minute back in this offense the past two seasons.

Mixon ran 18 total pass routes on third down last season with three catches on. In 2021, he ran just 27 routes on third down with six receptions.

Mixon does not come without risk given his 2022 performance, but he is still set up to be a workhorse back on a team we are projecting to win double-digit games. Mixon himself has finished as an RB1 in four of the past five seasons.

We are not entirely out of the clear with Mixon from a legal standout (his civil trial is August 14), so we do have to operate with some trepidation given his history off of the field and getting served a suspension.

If Mixon does not face any ramifications then he can be one of the better values at the position.

Seattle selected Kenneth Walker as the 41st pick last season. After Rashaad Penny was ruled out for the season in Week 6, Walker took over this backfield time and delivered on his investment.

From that time forward, Walker was third in the NFL in carries (205), fifth in rushing yards (904), and tied for fifth with eight rushing scores while even missing a game.

Coming out of Michigan State as a boom-or-bust runner, Walker was exactly that as a rookie. 12.7% of his runs gained 10 or more yards (17th out of 66 running backs to have 50 or more carries).

His 31.1% success rate ranked 60th while 23.7% of his carries failed to gain yardage (63rd).

Walker was a non-factor as a pass catcher. He was 103rd in receiving grade among running backs per Pro Football Focus in 2022, and his 0.67 yards per route run ranked 57th at the position.

In games in which Walker scored a touchdown, he averaged 19.9 points per game and was the average RB11 in weekly scoring. In games without a touchdown, he averaged 9.2 points per game and was the average RB33.

Walker gets a boost in leagues that do not reward receptions, but with the addition of Zach Charbonnet, Walker could be more touchdown dependent if conceding a handful of touches per game that he was not giving away to close last season after Penny’s injury.

After missing his entire rookie season due to a foot injury, Travis Etienne handled 255 touches for 1,441 yards and five touchdowns during his first regular season in the NFL.

Etienne was stuck in a timeshare until James Robinson was traded or his counting stats could have been larger.

After Robinson was traded before Week 8, Etienne rushed 152 times (11th) for 710 yards (ninth). Out of 47 running backs with 50 or more carries over that span, Etienne ranked 18th in success rate (41.4%) while 20.4% of his carries failed to gain yardage (39th) so there is still meat on the bone for this running game moving forward.

Where Etienne was at his best was maxing out his big gains. 51.1% of his rushing yardage came on carries that gained 10 or more yards, which was 10th in the league.

The initial pushback with Etienne potentially getting over the hump for fantasy is scoring opportunities and receiving work.

He converted just 2-of-10 carries inside of the 5-yard line for touchdowns (the league rate was 45.2% among backs).

Etienne did not have a single game last season with more than three receptions despite running 314 pass routes, which was 12th at the position. He was targeted on just 14.3% of his routes run, which ranked 51st among 69 running backs to run 100 or more routes last season. For context, it was right above Kenneth Walker, who we just previously covered.

I do believe Tank Bigsby is more of a threat for the goal line work than out of the backfield since rookie running backs generally have a hard time earning pass protection snaps, but Etienne was 94th among running backs in receiving grade per Pro Football Focus, which does not inspire a large turnaround in that department.

Najee Harris saw a universal decline in his second season from his rookie campaign any metric or counting stat you can find. The one area where he remained strong was matching the 10 touchdowns he scored over his rookie season.

When the season ended, Harris still turned in 1,263 yards from scrimmage on 313 touches.

Harris began the season with a Lisfranc injury that he picked up over the summer. He played the first five games of the season with a steel plate in his cleats to insulate the injury and then took a few more weeks to start to come back around.

Through eight games, Harris rushed 108 times for 361 yards (3.3 YPC) and one touchdown. Over that span, he ranked 44th out of 46 backs in expected points added per rush (-0.22), 45th in success rate (28.7%), and 44th in yards before contact per carry (0.69).

Then Harris rebounded as a workhorse.

Over the final nine games of the season, Harris rushed 164 times for 673 yards (4.1 YPC) with six touchdowns. He was sixth in the league in rushing over that span. The yards per carry were still lacking, but he climbed to 24th in EPA per rush (-0.07), 16th in success rate (40.9%), and 30th in yards before contact per carry (1.33).

Through two seasons, Harris has still been dependent on being a grinder, however. Where he is lacking is in explosive plays. Over the past two seasons, there have been 74 running backs with 100 or more carries. Harris has a run of 10 or more yards on 8.1% of his carries, which ranks 60th among that group. No running back with a lower rate of explosive runs than Harris over that span has as many carries as him. The next closest is AJ Dillon, who has 211 fewer rushing attempts.

Harris is still the frontman for the Steelers, but he conceded far more snaps and passing opportunities in his second season to Jaylen Warren than he did to any back as a rookie. Harris is still a touchdown and volume-based fantasy play.

Harris played 217 fewer snaps in his second season, primarily giving away his role in obvious situations. After running 129 routes on third down as a rookie, Harris only ran 48 routes on third down in 2022 compared to 89 for Warren.

James Conner is a solid back when he is available, but that was once again an issue in 2022 when he missed another four games. Through six NFL seasons, Conner has now missed multiple games in each of those years.

A 28-year-old running back missing multiple games per season does not do Arizona a lot of favors, but Conner did close the season on a positive note in an offense that was overall lackluster.

Coming back from injury in Week 9 through Week 17 when he was last active in 2022, Conner was eighth in the NFL in rushing yards (582), seventh in EPA per carry (-0.00), and seventh in success rate per carry (41.9%).

This team still has next to nothing behind Conner. Arizona did not add any competition to this backfield, signaling that Conner is set up to once again be a bell cow back while he is available to suit up.

Non-Conner running backs turned 130 carries into 509 yards (3.9 YPC) with one touchdown in 2022. Those running backs had a run of 10 or more yards on just 7.7% of those attempts, which was 29th in the league.

The team selected Keaontay Ingram in the sixth round last season, but he managed just 60 yards on his 27 carries as a rookie.

As much as I believe that Conner exceeds his current ADP, he is still a tough click unless he falls below projection since we are not counting on Arizona being a good offense paired with his injury history.

Rachaad White is another back who has dodged several bullets this offseason but is still standing as the feature back for the Buccaneers at the moment. Tampa Bay is another hot spot to potentially add another veteran body.

There is fragility in that regard if drafting now, but that also is being priced into his current ADP.

As part of their initial wave of releasing veteran players, the Buccaneers cut Leonard Fournette.

This seemingly will give the keys to the backfield over to White, whom the team selected in the third round (91st overall) a year ago.

We want to target young year 2-3 running backs in fantasy with opportunity, and White has a stellar receiving background as a prospect.

As a rookie that did not fully translate as he was targeted on 22.6% of his routes (16th) for 1.13 yards per route (26th). He averaged just 5.8 yards per catch and 5.0 yards per target.

As a runner things were just as inefficient.

Among 44 backs with 100 or more carries in 2022, White ranked:

  • 38th in yards per carry (3.8 YPC)
  • 33rd in EPA per rush (-0.11)
  • 42nd in the rate of runs for 10 or more yards (6.6%)
  • 43rd in yards created after contact per carry (2.29)

The only back worse in terms of generating yards after contact per carry was Fournette.

There is only room for improvement for White in year two and he is the only back here that is signed beyond the 2023 season.

Volume is the name of the game and White has that in front of him.

White only had two games all season in which he played over 52% of the team snaps.

In Week 10 (playing with Fournette), White played 64% of the snaps and posted 105 yards on 22 touches.

In Week 12 with Fournette sidelined, White was the RB9 with 109 yards on 23 touches.

White has a pass-catching pedigree as a prospect to create a high floor in full-PPR formats and is set up for a workload to provide value, but the Tampa offensive line looks worse on paper this season while the offense as a whole could be bad again in 2023 under the combination of Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask, which could make him more of a weekly baseline play that exceeds ADP overall but fails to make a weekly impact on outcomes.

If we do get Mayfield, there is added appeal.

Mayfield has targeted running backs 20.2% of the time, which ranks 15th among 42 qualifying passers since he entered the league in 2018.

Alexander Mattison is set up to be thrust into the largest workload of his career with the release of Dalvin Cook.

Mattison is coming off a career-low 89 touches in his first season with the new regime in Minnesota and has yet to clear 166 touches in a single season through four years in the NFL.

Mattison has made six starts with Cook sidelined over his career, finishing as the RB13 or higher in five of those games. In those weeks, he has averaged 23.3 touches for 115.5 yards from scrimmage per game while scoring five touchdowns.

Mattison has been great for fantasy when Minnesota has had to press volume through him but has also been lackluster in the efficiency department, which could make his grip on retaining the role big picture.

In those six games, although Mattison has stacked production, he has averaged -0.8 yards per carry below expectation.

There is a difference between Mattison being elevated to the starting job in the season when the team is missing Cook compared to entering a new season without Cook at all.

Over the past two seasons, 74 running backs have had 100 or more rushing attempts. Among those backs, Mattison ranks:

  • 68th in yards per carry (3.7)
  • 45th in success rate (37.5%)
  • 43rd in explosive run rate (9.1%)
  • 42nd in yards after contact per carry (2.78)

Last season, Mattison failed to gain yardage on 24.3% of his carries, which was ahead of only James Robinson and Zonovan Knight.

We also have Minnesota’s continued reduction of using their running backs in the passing game.

Cook himself was coming off career-low output as a pass catcher while Mattison was among the league’s worst pass catchers last season at the position.

Out of 69 running backs to run 100 or more pass routes, Mattison ranked 52nd in yards per catch (6.1), 59th in yards per route run (0.58), and 58th in target rate per route run (11.4%).

This raises the question of whether Mattison can hang onto a high workload now that he has it.

Does this just push him into being a quintessential “dead zone” back since he does not have front-end college pedigree or draft capital and has not been an efficient player at the NFL so far or can he be a greater value while the field pauses on those factors?

The Vikings have little to no experience behind Mattison. Ty Chandler, Kene Nwangwu, and DeWayne McBride have combined for 34 NFL touches on offense.

Mattison is not the same level of trap as Mike Davis was a few years ago in that he will be a value solely because the Vikings do not have much else, but Mattison will have to be better than he has been to remain the clear bell cow in the Minnesota offense.

Javonte Williams is a tough one because of just how major his injury was last October.

Not only did Williams suffer tears in both his ACL and LCL, but he also tore the posterolateral corner of his right knee. His recovery could limit the front half of his season if not the entire 2023 campaign even when he can return to the field.

Williams is someone I would reserve strictly for pure Zero-RB rosters at this point, but the early drumbeat for his recovery has been positive.

We also know Sean Payton has had no issues using a combination backfield. When Williams does return, his path to being a high-workload running back is compromised.

Playing devil’s advocate, the Broncos also did not go out to add another young back in the draft, leaving Williams to work with Samaje Perine, who has been a passing-down specialist the past few seasons in Cincinnati outside of necessity.

Williams is back in action this preseason and we have seen him on the field.

This indicates that he is further along then where J.K. Dobbins was a year ago.

Tier 5 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Breece Hall

Without injury concerns, Breece Hall would be a Tier 1 fantasy back, which is why he resides in his special tier.

The Jets selected Hall as the first running back taken in the 2022 draft and he immediately showcased his explosion and versatility to justify the choice.

Hall averaged 5.8 yards per carry and 11.5 yards per reception with five touchdowns. His 2.0 yards per route run was second at the position.

No running back that handles as many touches averaged more yards per touch than Hall’s 6.9 yards per touch last season.

Unfortunately, Hall only appeared in seven games and handled 99 touches since he tore his ACL in October.

He had his surgery on November 18th, putting the Week 1 start of the season right around 10 months of recovery. That is on the shorter end of the typical timeline of recovery.

With the Jets adding Dalvin Cook to the roster, they could be uncomfortable with Hall's timeline while also adding insurance after the reserves on this roster struggled after Hall went down a year ago.

Non-Hall running backs rushed for the Jets last season rushed 258 times for 947 yards (3.7 YPC) and a 28.2% success rate.

We should expect Hall to have a slow start to the season, but he also has a range of outcomes to deliver a difference-making second half of the season.

I already had non-Hall running backs projected for 210 carries this season prior to the team signing Cook. Hall can be an effective back on limited touches, but the signing of Cook does impact his ceiling in an offense that could also potentially slow-paced under Aaron Rodgers.

In the end, Hall will likely be a target in auction formats over snake drafts unless he dips mightily, but Hall also fits the mold of backs that exceed expectations post-ACL injury given his age, high-testing athletic scores, and high draft capital.

Even with the risk, this is the firewall at the position. Even considering Hall solely due to his potential to close the season says something about the ceiling he has, but also the depth of the running back market as a whole.

Tier 6 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Aaron Jones
  • Jahmyr Gibbs
  • James Cook
  • D’Andre Swift
  • Alvin Kamara

This is arguably the trickiest tier at the position this season since this archetype of running back has such a wide range of outcomes.

All of these backs are capable of being elite pass catchers, which is their primary appeal since targets are worth so much more than carries at the base level.

In several cases, I prefer the backs in this tier and their ceiling potential to a host of backs in the previous tier. Especially in PPR formats.

If I am a heavy-WR drafter, this is a tier I am going to look towards often.

Almost all of these backs are affordable and play in offense we anticipate to be good.

If things break the correct way for any of the backs in this tier, they have the type of potential to have elite fantasy seasons as we saw from Austin Ekeler a few seasons ago.

But all of these backs are under-to-mid-sized options that also come with the inherent risk of sharing workloads and losing out on the money touches near the end zone, which could restrain their ceiling output.

In non-PPR formats, this group comes with added volatility and fragility despite the alluring ceiling outcomes at their apex.

Aaron Jones was efficient again in 2022, racking up 1,516 yards and seven touchdowns on 272 touches.

Jones caught another 59 passes. He now has increased his reception total every season of his NFL career.

With 5.6 yards per touch, Jones has averaged over 5.0 yards per touch every year of his career.

Where things keep Jones as a boom-or-bust RB2 for fantasy is that he still lives solely as his touchdowns go.

In the five games in which Jones reached the end zone, he was an RB1 in all five games and averaged 24.7 points per game. In the other 12 games without a score, Jones was an RB2 or better just four times and averaged 10.4 points per game.

Jones now has 45 career games without a touchdown and has been an RB2 or better in just 12 of those weeks.

To compound matters in that department, Jones does not get a lot of true scoring chances due to AJ Dillon.

Jones has just six rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons due to the involvement of Dillon near the end zone. Dillon out-carried Jones 10-to-2 inside of the 5-yard line in 2022 and 20-to-8 over the past two seasons.

While Dillon is an immediate thorn, Jones has a weekly ceiling you will ride with more weeks than not, and he has front-end RB1 overall contingent value should Dillon miss any action.

Jahmyr Gibbs is 100% as advertised.

He was the best speed and space player at the running back position that was available in this draft class.

Out of the backfield, Gibbs averaged a class-high 3.3 receptions per game over his college career at Georgia Tech and Alabama. His receptions rose all three seasons. This past year, he was targeted on 21.4% of his routes (second in the class), catching 44-of-52 targets for 444 yards and three touchdowns.

That is also simultaneously the hardest archetype at the position to correctly calibrate when accounting for Gibbs being 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds.

This archetype of player often gets limited by a coaching staff next level in a compartmentalized role.

Especially landing in Detroit, a team that was reluctant to extend D’Andre Swift’s workload.

Swift was 212 pounds at the Combine as a prospect and regularly used in tandem with Jamaal Williams situationally.

Gibbs may be a better and healthier player than Swift was in Detroit, inspiring more confidence in feeding him touches, but David Montgomery also could be a better player than Williams was in his role as well.

There is a wide range projecting how much rushing volume and true touchdown opportunities that Gibbs receives in his rookie season.

On the ground is where we saw his potential limitations due to role and archetype. Just 25.8% of Gibbs’ carries were inside runs, the lowest rate in this class.

On runs in which Gibbs was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, he averaged just 0.9 yards per carry, the third-lowest rate in this class.

When he was contacted beyond the line of scrimmage he averaged a robust 10.8 yards per tote, the highest rate in this class.

Just 8.6% of his carries in 2022 came in short-yardage situations (non-first downs needing 1-3 yards), which was also the lowest rate in the class. On those carries he averaged just 1.5 yards per carry, the lowest rate in the class.

When Alabama was inside of the 5-yard line this season, Gibbs handled just three of the 16 team carries among running backs.

We are going to need those touches at the next level to turn Gibbs into a ceiling producer versus a floor-based PPR scorer.

Gibbs is often compared to Alvin Kamara, but he came in 15 pounds lighter than Kamara did as a prospect.

His closest comps from a ceiling perspective are Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler, but each of those players was a high-workload player coming out of college.

The more obvious comparison with draft capital and potential early usage would be C.J. Spiller.

The draft capital investment gives Gibbs extra support in cracking through more playing time than expected, even if Montgomery remains in the mix to take over the dirty work. If Gibbs is just too good to keep off of the field or Montgomery misses time, Gibbs has a soft bed of receiving ability to expand on.

James Cook does not project as favorably as Jones or Gibbs, but that is already priced in.

His highest range of outcomes is also inherently thinner than the previous two backs, but his upside is just as high in a perfect outcome at a much cheaper cost.

Cook only totaled 110 touches during his rookie season, but he averaged 6.2 yards per touch.

27.0% of Cook’s 89 carries resulted in a first down or touchdown, which ranked sixth among 66 running backs last season with 50 or more carries.

In the passing game, Cook averaged 1.43 yards per route run, which was 16th among all backs to run 100 or more routes last season. He was targeted on 25.4% of his routes, which ranked 10th among the same group.

With Cook, we are talking about higher-value targets as well.

78.1% of Cook’s targets as a rookie came beyond the line of scrimmage, which ranked seventh among all running backs to run 100 or more pass routes. No other running back with as many targets as Cook had in 2022 had a higher rate of targets come beyond the line of scrimmage.

While Cook did not get a lot of touches as a rookie, he was hyper-efficient with them. Now with Devin Singletary no longer on the roster, Cook is set up to have his role expand in year two.

The rub is that the Bills have not used their running backs all that much, particularly as runners. Buffalo running backs combined for 291 carries in 2022, the fewest in the league.

Cook also will have to contend with both Josh Allen and Damien Harris for short-yardage and goal-line opportunities. Buffalo running backs had just seven total carries inside of the 5-yard line last season, which was 31st in the league. In 2021, they had just 12, which was 23rd.

All of those things are keeping Cook’s ADP on par for his median range of outcomes, but what if the Bills do finally cut back on Allen’s rushing attempts? What if Damien Harris is not a significant impact player? Those outcomes lead to a higher-end path of production in one of the league’s best offenses.

D’Andre Swift is not a running back that is going to project well or have a strong median outcome going to the Eagles, but his range of outcomes remains high.

Swift has been productive on his limited NFL sample, averaging 5.5 yards per touch over his three years in the league.

He has also scored a touchdown in 55.0% of his career games, which trails only Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, and Derrick Henry among active backs to play multiple seasons.

He joins the most efficient running game in the NFL with an elite offensive line on top of things.

The downside is that Swift has missed multiple games in all three years in the league and has exceeded 15 rushing attempts just twice so far in his early career.

The Eagles can rotate him with Rashaad Penny to preserve both backs when healthy, but this system also limits Swift’s receiving upside.

The Eagles were dead last in the NFL in targets to their running backs (61) last season.

Even if Swift elevates that total, it is hard to see them pressing the league’s base rate in that department.

Swift still has major upside given the potential of Penny missing any time and is efficient enough on his own to make the most of a backfield split, but he will be a target for specific builds throwing multiple bodies at their RB2 spot.

Despite posting 1,387 yards from scrimmage, 2022 was another mild season for Alvin Kamara.

Kamara averaged just 4.0 yards per carry, which was 31st among 42 running backs to have 100 or more carries on the season. His 36.3% success rate ranked 30th among the same group.

To give Kamara some leeway, he ran against eight or more defenders in the box on 46.6% of his carries. That was the seventh-highest rate among those backs and followed up the 51.2% rate he had in 2021.

Those two rates of running against stacked boxes are by far the highest of Kamara’s career as opposing teams have not respected the New Orleans passing game. Kamara ran against a lighter box (six or fewer defenders) on just 16.1% of his carries, a career low.

There is a clear signal based on the acquisition of Jamaal Williams that the Saints are going to get Kamara back into a role that resembles his early-career usage, at least as a runner. He will no longer have to handle the grunt work.

That said, Kamara’s decline in rushing output also extends into the passing game. He did catch 10 more passes in 2022 than he did in 2021, but his 3.8 receptions per game were still well off the pace of his early career when he averaged over 5.0 catches per game in each of his first four seasons in the league.

On top of all of that, Kamara also scored a career-low four touchdowns.

The addition of Williams paired with Taysom Hill already being an effective goal-line option makes it hard to buy a massive spike in goal-line touches for Kamara.

A three-game suspension to open the season does give Kamara the needed caution on his ADP, but if that is overly reflected in his ADP and he falls outside of the top-24 running backs in drafts there is plenty of value opportunity to take swings on him as a RB2/FLEX for teams that open WR-heavy.

Tier 7 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Jonathan Taylor

2022 was a season to forget for Jonathan Taylor.

A year after he was the runner-up for the offensive player year with a league-leading 2,171 yards from scrimmage and league-high 20 touchdowns, Taylor mustered up 1,004 yards and four touchdowns over his 11 games played.

Among the 42 running backs with 100 or more carries last season, Taylor was 39th in EPA per rush (-0.16) and 37th in success rate (34.4%). 19.3% of his runs failed to gain yardage (34th). All of these struggles came attached to 38.5% of his carries coming against light boxes, which was the second-highest rate in the league.

Now, Taylor deserves a few passes here, especially following up on his monstrous 2021 season and elite collegiate pedigree. First, he injured his ankle in Week 4 and was just never the same.

He missed the next two games and then re-injured the same ankle coming back, which forced him out in Week 9.

He then re-injured that ankle once again upon return in Week 15 and was shut down for the remainder of the season.

Taylor had offseason surgery to repair his ankle in late January and is looking to be 100% to kick off this season.

The Colts also were just a terrible offensive environment overall in 2022. That issue still stands to potentially exist this season when Taylor is in the final year of his rookie contract.

With Taylor being a second-round draft pick, there is no fifth-year option available here as the two sides attempt to work out a long-term deal. Taylor has already stated that he is willing to bet on himself this season and not hold out for a new contract.

Taylor was the RB1 overall in scoring in 2021, but remember it was the lowest-scoring season for an RB1 since 2012.

77.5% of Taylor’s scoring that season came directly via rushing, which is fragile.

Especially with Anthony Richardson now on board, how many receptions can we get out of Taylor this season?

Adding a mobile quarterback with accuracy issues inherently creates issues in the passing game, but there also is not a great track record for running backs with rookie quarterbacks.

Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, there have been 51 first-round rookie quarterbacks that have made five or more starts in a season.

At running back there have been 12 top-12 scoring seasons with 73.9% of the leading backs seeing a dip in scoring from the previous season attached to those passers.

Tiki Barber in 2004 was the only running back to lead the position in scoring attached to a rookie passer with just four other backs finishing inside of the top six in seasonal scoring.

It will be hard for Taylor to be a worse fantasy option than he was a year ago. The bar was moved that low. But even with a rebound, does Taylor have the overall ceiling that he was believed to have entering last season?

The final month of the summer has compounded matters.

Taylor has had a schism with owner Jim Irsay, asked for a trade, and has some type of (real or fake) back issue. He has not done anything in camp and we are just weeks away from the season.

Taking everything into account here, it will be extremely hard to pull the trigger on selecting Taylor unless there is a slide in ADP or we get an 11th-hour trade.

Now with Taylor out at least the opening four games, we will be on watch to see if he is traded returning from the PUP or he and the Colts take things all the way up until Week 8 when he will need accrue enough time to log what registers as a season played.

Tier 8 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • J.K. Dobbins
  • Miles Sanders
  • Cam Akers
  • Isiah Pacheco
  • Dameon Pierce

This is a solid tier of RB2 options, but the overall upside of this group comes with questions due to this group collectively lacking receiving opportunities. These backs have much greater value as RB2 plays in non-PPR formats.

Returning from a torn ACL that cost him all of the 2021 season, J.K. Dobbins played in just eight games.

When on the field, Dobbins did showcase his upside as a runner, however.

Among all backs with 100 or more carries last season, Dobbins ranked:

  • First in expected points added per rush (0.07)
  • First in the rate of runs to result in a first down or touchdown (27.6%)
  • First in the rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (18.1%)
  • First in yards before contact per carry (2.50)

While Dobbins has flashed, he does enter the 2023 season in the final season of his rookie contract with just one career game having more than 15 carries.

Dobbins also has just 25 career catches in 23 regular season games.

Since entering the league, Lamar Jackson is 40th out of 42 qualifying passers in target rate to running backs (15.2%).

While the Los Angeles Rams’ running game was an overall disappointment, there were signs of life from Cam Akers to close the season.

Coming back from an Achilles injury that limited him to just one game in 2021, Akers had limited playing time and production over the front half of the season.

He played 40% of the offensive snaps or fewer in nine of the opening 11 games of the season and was even shut down for two weeks before the trade deadline due to being unhappy with his role in the offense.

Then the team released Darrell Henderson and swerved into throwing Akers into the fire with nothing left on offense.

Over the final six games of the season, Akers played 72% or more of the snaps in five of those games.

Over that span, Akers led the NFL in rushing (512 yards), eighth in expected points added per rush (0.05), and 10th in success rate (45.2%) carrying the football.

While that late-season success is something the Rams hope is a sign of what a healthy version of Akers can provide and can carry over into 2023, he has only provided spurts of production thus far in his career and has not given us a full season of output.

While the rushing increase was positive, we also still need a lot more in the passing game.

Akers was targeted on just 10.9% of his routes run, which was 62nd out of 69 backs with 100 or more routes run on the season. His 0.71 yards per route run ranked 53rd among the same group.

Miles Sanders ended 2022 as the RB15 in overall scoring and RB22 in points per game.

He bounced back with career-highs with 1,269 rushing yards, 1,347 yards from scrimmage, 11 touchdowns, and 279 touches.

Sanders has been one of the most touchdown-dependent fantasy backs in his career since his receiving output has dwindled each season in the NFL.

Sanders averaged 20.3 points per game last season in weeks with a tip to the end zone as opposed to 6.0 points per game in his weeks without a score.

A move to Carolina opens up the door for Sanders to catch more passes, but he still takes a step of faith in that department while playing in a worse NFL scoring offense than what he was in a year ago.

There is no guarantee that we see Sanders play in passing situations, either, since he has been one of the worst receiving backs in the league in recent seasons.

Sanders has averaged fewer yards per reception than the year prior in every year of his career. The good news is that he will be hard-pressed to average worse than 3.9 yards per catch like a year ago, which was dead last among all qualifying running backs.

Isiah Pacheco improved the output of the Kansas City running game once he took over as the primary ball carrier in Week 10.

From that point forward, Pacheco was seventh among all running backs in success rate (44.4%) and seventh in yards per carry (5.0). Just 7.9% of his carries over that span failed to gain yardage, the lowest rate among 44 backs to have 50 or more carries over that period.

The downside is that just 8.7% of his carries gained 10 or more yards (30th) while Pacheco played just 50% of the offensive snaps in three games (with a high of 57%).

Pacheco was underserved in the passing game, which is the primary area of focus for this backfield to begin with.

He caught just 13 passes all season and did not log a single reception on third down since he ran just five total pass routes on third down as a rookie during the regular season.

Pacheco was a liability in pass protection as a rookie, allowing pressure on 28.0% of his snaps in protection, the second-highest rate at the position.

The positive end is the Kansas City offense supplies no shortage of scoring opportunities if you are a touchdown-based fantasy option. The Chiefs have ranked sixth and fifth in the league in running back rushing attempts inside of the 5-yard line the past two seasons.

Dameon Pierce had a polarizing rookie season.

Through 10 weeks, Pierce was third in the NFL in carries (165) and fifth in rushing yards (722).

The downside is that he had just three rushing scores over that span due to the Houston offensive environment and was averaging 2.4 catches per game.

He then rushed for 167 yards the next four weeks before being shut down for the season.

Over that front stretch at his best, Pierce had accounted for 79.7% of the Houston rushing attempts.

Pierce was 43rd in yards per route run among running backs (0.85) while averaging just 5.5 yards per catch (61st) as a full-time asset when available.

The addition of Devin Singletary compromises that overload workload while we still cannot count on a major spike in the passing game or touchdowns.

Tier 9 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • David Montgomery
  • Antonio Gibson
  • Jamaal Williams
  • Raheem Mostert
  • Samaje Perine

This is the Anchor-RB/Zero-RB dream Tier.

All of these backs offer a path to standalone value while also having avenues to logging three-down workloads for a portion of the season should things play out accordingly for them.

David Montgomery is just good enough to remain a viable source of production and just pedestrian enough to prevent a true allure of spike fantasy asset without a source of a major workload.

Montgomery has posted over 1,000 yards from scrimmage in all four of his NFL seasons, but his rushing yardage per game has dropped from the season prior in each of the past two seasons.

Over his rookie contract, Monty had 18 RB1 scoring weeks, but just one of those games on fewer than 15 touches with two handling fewer than a third of the overall team touches.

Sharing a backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs makes Montgomery a bet that will be forced to lean on touchdown output or an injury to the rookie giving him contingency upside.

That said, Montgomery will be inheriting a role that provided a plethora of high-value touches for Jamaal Williams last season.

Williams led the NFL in carries inside of the 5-yard line (28) and carries in goal-to-go situations (38).

Antonio Gibson saw his workload slashed last season while operating in a committee.

He dipped down to 9.9 rushing attempts and 13.0 touches per game while Washington increasingly ramped up the involvement of Brian Robinson.

If looking for the silver lining, Gibson was still a far more productive back per touch than Robinson. He also no longer has to contend with J.D. McKissic in the passing game.

That gives a runway for a solid receiving floor while offering an upside angle should Robinson miss any time.

The downside is that Gibson has now stacked multiple injuries (he is coming off foot surgery this offseason) in the final season of his rookie contract. This regime may have lost enough faith in him overall to prevent any major breakout.

Jamaal Williams is not overly explosive or flashy but gives the Saints a reliable workhorse if Alvin Kamara misses any time and allows for a combination that could get Kamara more touches out in open space like in his early career.

Williams led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns in 2022 to go along with his first 1,000-yard season on the ground.

Only 8.4% of his carries resulted in a run of 10 or more yards (31st), but Williams ran against stacked boxes on 51.1% of his carries and still averaged more yards after contact per carry (2.78 yards) than Kamara did (2.72).

On runs against stacked boxes, Williams posted a 41.8% success rate compared to a 32.7% success rate for Kamara.

With Kamara suspended the opening three games of the season, Williams makes for an intriguing draft play for teams that draft extremely WR-heavy to open and are looking to add an immediate opportunity to their backfields to open the year while waiting on other situations to gain clarity.

Williams did not catch a lot of passes in Detroit playing alongside D’Andre Swift, but he was a player that opened his career with 25-plus receptions in each of his first four seasons in Green Bay and operated as their two-minute back even with Aaron Jones on the roster.

Do we believe that the Saints would trust Kendre Miller in passing situations to open his career? That’s not a bet I am making when rookie backs that do not come without elite draft capital have a hard time earning passing snaps out of the box.

What Williams does have to deal with, however, is Taysom Hill.

Over the past three seasons, Hill has converted 54.5% of his goal-to-go carries for touchdowns (12-of-22), which is the highest rate for any player with as many attempts as Hill has.

Raheem Mostert gets a bump to start the season with Jeff Wilson placed on injured reserve (missing at least the opening four games) and De'Von Achane picking up a shoulder issue.

After acquiring Wilson at the trade deadline, Wilson (84 carries) and Mostert (80 carries) shared the workload.

Over that span, Mostert ranked third among running backs in success rate per carry (46.3%) while Wilson was ninth (42.9%).

Wilson failed to gain yardage on just 11.9% of his carries with the Dolphins, which was the third-best rate among backs over that span.

13.1% of his carries with Miami went for 10 or more yards (eighth) while 16.3% of Mostert’s carries over that period resulted in gains of 10 or more yards (third).

The Miami passing schedule has some early-season roadblocks as well, which could push them to feature the running game earlier in the season.

Samaje Perine was one of the biggest winners of the offseason.

At what appears to be the worst outcome, Perine is a dual-threat back in a part of a Sean Payton committee backfield.

At best, Perine is a dual-threat workhorse should Javonte Williams be absent for a portion to open the season if not longer. Williams is already back in action, so the latter outcome is reduced.

Perine could still play passing downs all season and be a soft FLEX play in full-PPR formats, but loses on his early-season bellcow opportunity.

Perine is drawing live to outright outscore Williams in 2023 if the latter is not ready to play to open the year.

When we saw Perine get any type of workload with Joe Mixon out last season, he had games as RB10 and RB3 in fantasy those weeks.

Denver also was a sneaky source of running back targets last season, targeting their backs 22.6% of the time (fifth) even without Sean Payton directing control of the offense.

Tier 10 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Rashaad Penny
  • Khalil Herbert
  • AJ Dillon
  • Dalvin Cook
  • Brian Robinson
  • Damien Harris

We are now in the primary rushing-only backs.

Most of these backs share work with a back from a previous tier. They have contingent value should any of those backs miss time but do not carry the full-on upside as their backfield mates in a scenario where an injury inversely occurs.

Most of these backs are so lackluster in the receiving game or generating explosive plays (or both) that they still may concede sharing a backfield even with an injury to the other back that they are initially sharing opportunities.

Both Rashaad Penny and Khalil Herbert are at least explosive runners.

Penny is a former first-round draft pick that has been a hyper-efficient back for the past two seasons in Seattle.

Penny has the highest EPA per rush (0.13) among all running backs with 100 or more carries the past two seasons while leading all of those 71 backs in yards after contact per carry (4.43) and overall yards per carry (6.2).

The Eagles led the NFL with 85.1% of their running back runs coming from shotgun a year ago. Penny has a limited sample of just 62 attempts from the shotgun the past two seasons, but he has averaged a gaudy 7.0 yards per carry on those attempts.

The bugaboo for Penny is that he also has struggled to stay on the field. Penny missed 12 games a year ago and has not appeared in more than 10 games in a season since his rookie campaign in 2018.

Penny also has yet to have an NFL season with double-digit reception and joins a team that was dead last in targets to their running backs, just added a pass-catching back, and already had a pass-catching first back that they drafted two years ago.

To compound matters limiting his usage in the passing game, Penny ranked 99th in pass blocking grade per Pro Football Focus last season.

Herbert is a high-floor and high-ceiling rusher.

17.1% of his carries last season went for 10 or more yards, which trailed only J.K. Dobbins.

Just 13.2% of his carries failed to gain yardage, which was the fifth-lowest rate in the league.

While Herbert has incredible upside should he be the lead back with the Bears, he also stands to be part of a massive backfield committee with D’Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson, and potentially even Travis Homer on passing downs.

Not only were the Bears 31st in targets (62) to the position, but Herbert also himself was a non-factor in the passing game.

He ranked 62nd out of 69 qualifying backs in yards per route run last season (0.54). When he was targeted, 91.7% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate from that same group.

AJ Dillon has settled in as more of a touchdown-dependent FLEX play while sharing a backfield with Aaron Jones and is best kept as a contingency bet should anything happen to the latter.

Over the early part of Dillon’s career, he has averaged 18.3 points per game with a touchdown as opposed to 6.6 points per game without.

Over the past two seasons, just 6.3% of Dillon’s runs have gained 10 or more yards, which is dead last among the backs that have as many carries as him over that span.

Dalvin Cook appeared in every game last season for the first time in his career, but his output did take a hit. Cook averaged a career-low 4.4 yards per carry while his 69.0 rushing yards per game were his fewest in a season since 2018 when he was coming off an ACL injury. As a receiver, Cook averaged a career-low 2.3 receptions per game.

Cook really nosedived as the season wore on.

From Weeks 11 through the Wild Card round, Cook had 134 carries and posted:

  • 3.8 yards per carry (38th out of 44 backs with 50 or more carries over that span)
  • -0.23 EPA per rush (43rd)
  • 30.6% success rate (41st)
  • 8.2% of carries for 10 or more yards (32nd)
  • 24.6% of runs for no yardage gained (40th)
  • 2.54 yards after contact per carry

To give Cook some benefit of the doubt here, the Minnesota offensive line was completely ravaged as the season pressed on. Of those 134 carries, just eight of them came with all of Christian Darrisaw, Garrett Bradbury, and Brian O’Neill on the field at the same time.

Cook had 146 carries in 2022 with all three of those linemen on the field together and had extremely different results. On those carries Cook averaged:

  • 5.1 yards per carry
  • 38.4% success rate
  • 13.0% of runs for 10 or more yards.
  • 19.2% of runs failed to gain yardage.
  • 3.77 yards after contact per carry

Cook has an opening-season runway to carry thew load for the Jets while they wait on Breece Hall to return.

The real question is what happens after that point?

Cook is a back to target for WR-heavy teams looking for production in the front of the season, but also has the potential to be a touchdown-dependent FLEX play to close the year if and when Hall is set to take the brunt of the money touches.

The Jets also have a brutal opening schedule. Prior to their Week 7 bye, they draw the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos, and Eagles.

Brian Robinson was one of the better stories of the season returning from a preseason gunshot injury, but unfortunately, great stories don’t pay off for fantasy.

Over his eight games active as a rookie, Robinson was an RB2 or better just twice.

He was a non-factor in the passing game (nine total receptions for 60 yards) while one of the league’s most inefficient runners. Robinson averaged 3.9 yards per carry. 8.8% of his runs went for 10 or more yards (30th) while averaging 2.79 yards after contact per carry (35th).

The Bills added Damien Harris on a one-year contract to be more of an early and short-yardage situation runner.

Harris had eight 100-yard rushing games over his rookie contract with the Patriots, with three of those coming against the Bills. They have first-hand experience in seeing the best of what Harris has to have to offer.

56.1% of Harris’s career carries have come with eight or more defenders in the box during his career (sixth in the NFL since entering the league). Devin Singletary was selected in the same draft as Harris and had just 25.3% of his career carries come against stacked boxes.

While the Bills can offer more runway for Harris, where his true impact can be made is aiding the power running game, which has largely just been all Josh Allen the past few seasons.

Since Harris entered the league, he has had a 77.3% success rate on short-yardage carries (non-first down runs needing 1-3 yards) while Singletary had a 69.7% rate.

Tier 11 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Leonard Fournette
  • Kareem Hunt

This tier is reserved for the brand-named running backs that are still unsigned at the moment.

This tier (hopefully) will not exist come to the start of the season as these backs join rosters and find themselves slotted into other tiers based on their situations.

The remaining guys are against the age cliff at the position and are coming off of seasons in which they produced at some of the worst rates of their respective careers.

Not only are we holding out hope that these guys can reclaim some of their earlier output, but there just is a shortage of clear opportunities for them right now, which is why they largely remain unsigned.

The best bet that these backs have right now is to hang tight and see if an injury over the summer opens a lane to a larger opportunity.

In most cases, these backs are likely going to sign somewhere to be specialists. Whether that be at the goal line or in the passing game.

There is closing line value to be gained here on all of these backs right now if you are currently drafting, but how much actual upside is there?

Leonard Fournette could not find any success in a miserable rushing situation last season.

Fournette ended the season ranking 62nd out of 67 running backs in EPA per rush (-0.18) to run the ball 50 or more times.

Among the same group, he ranked 65th in yards created after contact per carry (2.31) so his shortcomings were not all inflicted by the Tampa Bay offensive line.

Fournette has never been a hyper-efficient runner or receiver, needing volume in both departments to clear a runway for accruing fantasy points over creating them himself.

Kareem Hunt averaged a career-low 9.3 touches per game and a career-low 4.3 yards per touch last season with the Browns.

Hunt did produce a run of 10 or more yards on 11.4% of his carries (25th among backs with 50 or more carries) with 2.91 yards after contact per carry (33rd). Those rates are better than some of the other backs in this tier, but Hunt failed to gain yardage on 22.0% of his carries (60th) while 33.3% of his carries came against light boxes (19th).

Hunt was third in the NFL in routes run among backs on third down, but he still averaged a career-low 2.1 receptions per game, 6.0 yards per catch, and 4.8 yards per target.

Tier 12 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Devon Achane
  • Roschon Johnson
  • Tank Bigsby
  • Tyjae Spears
  • Zach Charbonnet

We have reached our tier of rookie options at the position.

Nearly all of these rookies are contingency options big picture, needing the opportunity to open up for front-end usage, but all have positive cases you can make in betting on the upside angles.

Devon Achane and Roschon Johnson have the best immediate paths to output since their situations are so ambiguous and wide open to begin with.

Achane is an electric open-field back that takes some projection in finding a high workload in the NFL.

At 5-foot-8 and 188 pounds, he looks like a Raheem Mostert clone, which is fitting given his landing spot. Mostert was 190 pounds at his Pro Day back in 2015.

Achane logged the fastest forty (4.32 seconds) at the Combine.

His 2.3 receptions per game over his career rank fourth in this class. 66.1% of his carries came on the perimeter, the fifth-highest rate in this class a year ago. Achane averaged 6.2 yards per carry on those attempts compared to just 4.5 YPC on inside runs, which was the second-lowest rate in this class.

Despite his size and that disparity in those splits, Achane was good at creating extra yardage when forced to. 21.9% of his carries this past season came with eight or more defenders in the box (fifth) and he averaged 3.4 yards after contact per carry on those attempts (third).

When Achane was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, he averaged 4.5 YAC per attempt and turned 24.7% of those carries into first downs or touchdowns. Both of those rates were the highest in this draft class in 2022.

Johnson never handled more than 107 touches in a season over his final three years in college due to the arrival of Bijan Robinson, but he was an effective back on his limited opportunities.

Checking in at 6-foot-0 and 219 pounds, he also had an 86th percentile 10-yard split (1.58) at the Combine.

He is big and can go downhill. Johnson forced a missed or broken tackle on a class-high 35.5% of his carries in 2022.

On inside runs, only Robinson had a higher missed tackle rate than Johnson (31.6%). He converted 83.3% of his short-yardage carries for a first down or touchdown, which was second in this class.

56.3% of his carries against eight or more defenders in the box resulted in a first down or touchdown, which also led the class.

The Chicago backfield is certainly messy on the surface, but ambiguous backfields have provided the best values. If Johnson gets extended work, the Chicago running game is strong enough to offer upside, but this team does not have a lot of avenues to create passing value to their backs.

Tank Bigsby has more size (210 pounds) than most of the backs in this draft class and could immediately be a threat to Travis Etienne in short-yardage situations.

Living up to his name, Bigsby converted 78.3% of his short-yardage carries into first downs or touchdowns in 2022, which ranked seventh in this class.

He also was objectively reliable in pass protection, allowing zero sacks and just one pressure on 92 pass-blocking snaps a year ago.

Etienne was one of the lowest-graded passing-down backs in the NFL last season and converted just 2-of-10 carries inside of the 5-yard line for scores, opening the door for Bigsby to threaten either or both roles.

This past season, Tyjae Spears averaged 4.0 yards after contact per carry, which is third among all backs in this class.

His 4.1 yards after contact per attempt on runs in which he was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage ranked fourth.

Against boxes with seven or more defenders, Spears averaged a class-high 7.5 yards per carry. He also converted 78.8% of his short-yardage runs for first downs or touchdowns, which ranked sixth.

Derrick Henry has not shared much work over the past few seasons, which leaves Spears as more of a contingency bet than someone with standalone value, but Henry also has a non-zero chance of being traded during the season.

Landing in Seattle, Zach Charbonnet impacts Kenneth Walker’s outlook, but we do not know if there is enough meat on the bone for him to have standalone value on his own.

Pete Carroll has talked up Charbonnet’s receiving ability. While better than Walker’s coming out of college, Charbonnet still leaves a lot to be desired on that front.

He plucked 51 receptions (2.3 per game) the past two years, but the types of targets that Charbonnet received were more of the tertiary check downs. Charbonnet’s -55 air yards this past season was ahead of just one back in this class.

Seattle may find Charbonnet to be a more consistent short-yardage back than the strikeout or home run style of Walker, though. As a runner, 39.5% of Charbonnet’s carries in 2022 resulted in a first down or touchdown, which was the highest rate in this draft class. He failed to gain yardage on just 9.7% of his carries, the lowest rate in this class.

Tier 13 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Kenneth Gainwell
  • Ezekiel Elliott
  • Jerick McKinnon
  • Devin Singletary
  • Jaylen Warren
  • Elijah Mitchell
  • Tyler Allgeier
  • Chuba Hubbard
  • Jerome Ford
  • Gus Edwards
  • Malik Davis
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire

There is a case to be made for a few of the backs here having standalone value to open the 2023 season, but we are firmly in the handcuff zone of the position.

Nearly all of these backs need to have something open for them for you to actively want to put them into weekly lineups.

Kenneth Gainwell has averaged 5.4 yards per touch in each of his first two NFL seasons, but his lighter frame may always hinder him from extending into a high workload back.

Gainwell has 177 touches through two seasons.

There is some late-summer buzz that Gainwell has an inside track on carrying the load for the Eagles. That seems like a stretch to fully buy into since D'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny have shown to efficient backs on their own, but Gainwell does have some positive metrics over his small NFL sample.

Among all backs with 100 or more carries over the past two seasons, Gainwell ranks first in rushing success rate (50.4%) and first in rate of runs to gain a first down or touchdown (29.8%). He also has lowest rate of negative rushing attempts (9.1%) while only having a modest rate of those carries come against light boxes (31.4%, which is 23rd of the same group).

Jerick McKinnon is one of the few passing-down-only backs we have on the board this season.

Kansas City running backs were second in the NFL in receiving yards (826) in 2022 while leading the league with 12 receiving touchdowns.

McKinnon was a huge part of that as he accounted for a 56-512-9 receiving line on 71 targets a year ago.

He had just seven receiving touchdowns over his first six years in the league, so it will be hard to bank on a repeat scoring performance.

In games in which McKinnon did not score a touchdown, he averaged 6.2 points per game.

Devon Achane is still the bet I am making if throwing a dart in this backfield, and Miami has also been linked as a potential landing spot for Dalvin Cook.

Through injuries and performance, Ezekiel Elliott lacked the upside and explosive output to compete with Tony Pollard and was let go this offseason.

Just 7.4% of Elliott’s carries resulted in a run of 10 or more yards. That ranked 56th in the league and was the lowest rate of his career.

Elliott also averaged just 2.74 yards after contact per carry (the second-lowest rate of his career) while just 22.5% of his carries resulted in a first down or touchdown (also a career low).

Say what you want about Zeke as a full-time rusher, but he was still effective at chain moving on short yardage.

He had a 68.9% 1D/TD rate on non-first downs needing 1-3 yards (13th of 42 RBs with 100-plus carries) and a 72.0% conversion rate on 3rd downs (8/42).

Zeke was also 62.5% rate inside of the 5-yard line (10/42).

Elliott’s best bet for any standalone value outside of injury to Rhamondre Stevenson is as a touchdown vulture.

Devin Singletary takes a big hit going from the Buffalo offense to the Houston one.

The only times that Singletary has been a useful fantasy asset is when he has had a backfield to himself.

He has averaged 18.6 touches per game over his RB1 scoring weeks during his career and 12.0 touches per game in the other weeks. Not an elite rusher and a subpar pass catcher, it is hard to see a clear path for Singletary to be a strong fantasy play outside of an injury to Dameon Pierce.

Jaylen Warren had a strong rookie season.

Warren chipped in 593 total yards on 105 touches as a rookie and was more efficient than Harris in just about every department. Among backs with 50 more carries (he handled 77), Warren averaged 4.9 yards per carry (15th) with a run of 10 or more yards on 14.3% of his carries (10th) and 45.5% success rate (sixth).

Warren can continue to chip away at Najee Harris’ workload, but does he have enough appeal as a standalone asset?

Elijah Mitchell has had his value nuked through the trade of Christian McCaffrey but is arguably the best pure handcuff back in the league that has next to no standalone value outside of cleaning up games.

Mitchell did have 60 touches over his four full games played with McCaffrey last season, but just 13 of them came in the first half of those games.

Tyler Allgeier was second in the NFL in EPA per rush among all running backs with 100 or more carries on the season while his 3.58 yards after contact per carry ranked fifth. Over the final four weeks of the season, the Falcons leaned into seeing what Allgeier had. Over that span, he led the NFL in rushing yards (431) while averaging 5.5 yards per carry (tied for first) and 4.19 yards after contact per carry (first).

While Atlanta’s overall team rushing volume keeps the door open for Allgeier to have some touches weekly, the selection of Bijan Robinson pushes him back to being a handcuff option.

Cleveland selected Jerome Ford in the fifth round last season, who should have a larger role behind Nick Chubb this season and compete to be the team’s RB2 and primary handcuff.

Ford did not log an offensive snap during the regular season, operating as the primary kickoff returner on the team. Ford checked out physically at the Combine as a rookie (5-foot-10 and 210 pounds) while registering a 74th percentile speed score (4.46 forty).

Gus Edwards was also returning from an ACL injury last season and only appeared in nine games in 2022. He returned in Week 7 last season and then missed another two games due to a hamstring injury. Edwards was once again efficient in the Baltimore scheme, averaging 5.0 yards per carry in the regular season. Through four seasons in the league, Edwards has never been below 5.0 yards per carry on the ground.

Right now, Malik Davis looks like he has the clearest path to be the RB2 in Dallas since he can also play special teams (something Ronald Jones does not). Dallas still is a team that could add another veteran back (or bring back Ezekiel Elliott), but the handcuff will be valuable since Tony Pollard is not a running back that Dallas will grind into dust.

Davis averaged 5.1 yards per touch in clean-up duty last season in games with Elliott or Pollard sidelined.

Tier 14 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Israel Abanikanda
  • Kendre Miller
  • Trayveon Williams
  • Chase Brown
  • Keaontay Ingram
  • Jeff Wilson
  • DeWayne McBride
  • Ty Chandler
  • D’Onta Foreman
  • Chase Edmonds
  • Zamir White
  • Cordarrelle Patterson
  • Michael Carter
  • Kyren Williams
  • Joshua Kelley
  • Ty Montgomery

Bringing things home, these are the primary remaining dart throws at the position.

Kendre Miller was the second youngest back in this class, coming off a season in which he produced 1,515 yards and 17 touchdowns on 240 touches (6.3 yards per touch).

Only three backs in this class averaged more yards per carry than Miller’s 6.7 YPC over his career.

As a receiver, we do not have to work off. Miller caught 16 passes for 116 yards this season. His 0.61 yards per route run ranked 20th in this class.

I do not believe he has a role in the passing game as a rookie and New Orleans kicking the tires on Kareem Hunt could be an added signal here.

Miller also is coming off meniscus surgery this spring.

His best bet is that the suspension of Kamara gives him an opportunity to force playing time and he forces his way into more action, but I struggle to find a true consistent role for him in this backfield (paired with Taysom Hill) for 2023 when it is at full strength.

As mentioned with Joe Mixon, the Bengals have never used him as a three-down option yet to this point.

Just in case that does not happen again, either Chase Brown, Trayveon Williams, or Chris Evans would have a path to playing third downs and in the hurry-up offense.

While Brown remains the best option as a potential three-down replacement for Mixon since he did everything in college, all of the early buzz out of Cincinnati has orbited Williams having the early lead at playing in the passing game.

The situation in Minnesota became a lot more interesting with the release of Dalvin Cook. If Alexander Mattison struggles with efficiency again, the door for Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride open up.

After failing to post more than 813 yards through four seasons at Tennessee, Chandler produced 1,308 yards and 14 touchdowns at North Carolina in his final season, averaging a career-high 6.6 yards per touch with career marks in yards per carry (6.0) and yards per reception (14.4).

That late-career breakout is always a red flag, but Chandler was one of the highest-graded runners in the preseason last year if that means anything and has already made an NFL roster. He stood out by running a 4.38 forty at the Combine at 204 pounds, while also having 73 career receptions on his resume.

McBride was a later-round draft pick, but he was one of the best runners in this draft class.

No running back in this class averaged more yards per carry over their collegiate career (7.3 YPC) while McBride was second among all backs in this class with 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game over his tenure at UAB.

It was not just the cumulative output, but how McBride did so. Everyone knew he was getting the ball and they couldn’t slow him down.

No back in this draft class had a lower rate of carries against light boxes than McBride at 27.0%.

72.9% of his carries came with seven or more defenders in the box while 31.8% came with eight or more in the box, the highest rate in this class. Even with eight or more in the box, McBride had 5.9 yards per carry, second in the class.

On inside runs he averaged 7.1 YPC (third) while his 3.2 YPC when hit at or behind the line was just behind Bijan Robinson’s 3.3 YPC. McBride forced a missed tackle on 37.9% of his carries hit at or behind the line compared to 38.4% for Robinson.

McBride did all of this in the Conference USA, so a grain of salt should be applied, but his rushing profile is as strong as anyone in this class.

Now, the bad.

McBride caught just five passes over his three years in college. His 0.14 yards per route run in 2022 were easily the lowest of any back in this class. He ran just 69 total pass routes in 2022.

He also had five fumbles on his 233 carries (2.1%), which was the highest rate in the class.

Israel Abanikanda is now buried with the signing of Dalvin Cook.

Abanikanda is an upright, boom-or-bust runner in the same throwback style of Tevin Coleman coming out of Indiana.

After 954 yards and 10 touchdowns on 177 touches over his first two seasons at Pitt, he exploded for 1,577 yards and 21 scores on 251 touches a year ago. No back in this draft class found the end zone at a higher rate per touch than the 8.3% rate Abanikanda had. He led the country with 13 touchdown runs of 10 or more yards. At 5’11” and 216 pounds, he also is one of the few backs towards the top of this class with a projectable three-down size.

The rest of his game needs some growth entering the NFL.

Abanikanda forced a missed tackle on just 14.6% of his carries per SiS, the lowest rate in this draft class. On inside runs, that rate was 14.3%, also the lowest rate among all backs invited to the Combine. When hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, that mark was 12.2%, once again the lowest.

Abanikanda also needs to work on improving in all areas of the passing game. His 11.8% drop rate was the second highest in this class in 2022 (albeit he only had a small sample of 17 targets) while he allowed pressure on 10.9% of his snaps in pass protection, the third-highest rate in this class.

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