As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and every other notable Raven, in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- To this point in his career, only 58.2% of Lamar Jackson’s fantasy points have come via passing. Only Justin Fields had a lower percentage of his fantasy points come from passing last season. The Ravens finally invested in receiver this offseason, signing Odell Beckham and drafting Zay Flowers in the first round. Jackson will also get back Rashod Bateman from injury. Along with Mark Andrews, that group represents the best pass-catching unit the Ravens have provided Jackson.
- Andrews has dominated targets over the last four seasons. He has been targeted on 26.6% of his routes and has handled 24.1% of Baltimore’s targets overall since 2019. Those numbers would have ranked third and second among tight ends who ran at least 100 routes last season. He pairs that volume with downfield usage. His career 10.2 air yards per target mark would have ranked sixth among that same group of tight ends last season.
- While he only carried the ball 92 times last season, J.K. Dobbins averaged 5.7 yards on those carries and for his career has averaged 5.9 yards on 226 carries. Among backs with at least 90 carries last season, Dobbins ranked first in EPA per rush (0.09), second in success rate (44.6%), and first in rate of 10+ yard runs (17.4%). Unfortunately, he also ran just 71 routes in eight games last season and has 32 career targets in 23 games.
2022 Ravens Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 350 (19th)
- Total Offense: 5,760 (16th)
- Plays: 1,052 (18th)
- Offensive TDs: 33 (20th)
- Points Per Drive: 1.9 (17th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 0.4 (17th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 32.1 seconds (22nd)
2023 Ravens Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: John Harbaugh
- Offensive Coordinator: Todd Monken
Baltimore’s offense dominated the league in Greg Roman’s first season in charge, easily leading the NFL in EPA per dropback and EPA per rush in 2019.
Lamar Jackson earned his MVP that year, throwing for 3,127 yards, rushing for 1,206 more, and scoring 43 total touchdowns.
The offense remained elite in 2020, but it slipped into the middle of the pack over the last two seasons as Jackson struggled with injuries and Roman struggled to build an effective passing game, issues that led to Roman and the Ravens splitting in January.
Baltimore tabbed Georgia OC Todd Monken to replace him.
The Monken hire is interesting because of his varied history. Monken oversaw a high-volume passing attack when he was allowed to call plays in Tampa Bay, but his Georgia offenses were more run-heavy and utilized two tight ends.
The Ravens have two quality tight ends if Monken wants to take that approach, but they now also have their best receiving corps in years, at least on paper, after signing Odell Beckham and spending a first-round pick on Zay Flowers.
Monken’s 2018 Bucs team was 4.6% over their expected pass rate (4th) and finished fourth in neutral pass rate. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston combined for a 5,358-36-26 line that season.
While it is unlikely the Ravens reach that level of pass heaviness, Jackson should get to throw more this season.
No matter his approach, Monken will need to get more from the passing game if he is going to be successful.
2022 Ravens Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 562 (26th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 52.7% (12th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -4.8% (23rd)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 18.1% (10th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 66% (5th)
2023 Ravens Passing Game Preview:
The Ravens will face the 11th-easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley
- WR: Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor
- WR: Odell Beckham, Devin Duvernay
- WR: Zay Flowers, James Proche
- TE: Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely
2022 started out great for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense.
Over the first 12 weeks, he threw for 2,231 yards and 17 touchdowns, rushed for 755 yards and three scores, and was sixth in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks.
He finished as a QB1 in six of those 11 games.
The Ravens were seventh in EPA per play during the first 12 weeks.
Unfortunately, Jackson suffered a knee injury in Week 13 that ultimately ended his season. It is the second season in a row he was limited to just 12 games.
That will continue to be a concern for Jackson, but there is a chance he is even better for fantasy in the games he is active moving forward.
To this point in his career, only 58.2% of Jackson’s fantasy points have come via passing. Only Justin Fields had a lower percentage of his fantasy points come from passing last season.
The Ravens finally invested in receiver this offseason, signing Odell Beckham and drafting Zay Flowers in the first round. Jackson will also get back Rashod Bateman from injury.
Along with Mark Andrews, that group represents the best pass-catching unit the Ravens have provided Jackson.
The quarterback will also get a new coordinator with Todd Monken coming over from Georgia. Monken had a great season coordinating a pass-heavy Bucs offense in 2018.
That kind of pass volume would be a massive change for this offense, but it is reasonable to think Jackson will get more passing opportunities.
20th in passing fantasy points per game last season (12.8), Jackson has room to grow as a passer while still being one of the most productive quarterbacks on the ground – 8.32 rushing points per game last season, third most.
Jackson is rightfully the fourth quarterback off the board in early drafts and has the profile to challenge the top three at the position if things break right for him.
As for his pass catchers, Mark Andrews also started hot last season before injuries derailed his campaign.
Through six weeks last season, Andrews had 39 catches for 455 yards and five touchdowns. Shoulder and knee injuries limited him the rest of the way, and he finished with a 73-847-5 line. All of those totals paced the Ravens.
Andrews has dominated targets over the last four seasons. He has been targeted on 26.6% of his routes and has handled 24.1% of Baltimore’s targets overall since 2019.
Those numbers would have ranked third and second among tight ends who ran at least 100 routes last season.
He pairs that volume with downfield usage. His career 10.2 air yards per target mark would have ranked sixth among that same group of tight ends last season. Andrews finished seventh himself (9.8).
31% of his targets were in the intermediate range last season, fifth among that group. His career average in that metric is 27.4%.
With all the new weapons in the passing game, there has to be some concern about Andrews maintaining his target share, but his usage profiles should allow him to remain an elite tight end even if his targets drop off a bit.
Also, he could lose some target share but still get a bump to his raw target total if the Ravens pass significantly more under a new offensive coordinator.
Andrews is rightfully the overall TE2 in fantasy drafts and has the upside to challenge Travis Kelce for the top spot.
Rashod Bateman only managed six games in 2022 after playing just 12 in his rookie season.
He was extremely efficient when healthy last season, averaging 19 yards per reception and 2.38 yards per route run. Both of those numbers were inflated by two long touchdowns that made up 45.7% of his yardage total.
He was targeted on a healthy 23.3% of his routes last season (23rd), but that was with Andrews and not much else in the passing game.
Bateman has draft capital on his side and solid numbers when healthy, but he also has health uncertainty and significantly more competition for targets. He is a risk-reward pick outside the top 40 receivers.
First-round pick Zay Flowers is going around the same time as Bateman in early drafts.
Flowers was the alpha receiver for Boston College last season, handling 29.8% of the team’s receptions, 36.4% of the receiving yardage, and 57.1% of the touchdown catches.
At only 5-foot-9, 182 pounds, he does not profile as that kind of No. 1 receiver in the NFL, and his 31.9% slot rate last season is likely to spike at the next level.
To return fantasy value in that role, Flowers will need the Ravens to play more three-receiver sets.
Last season, the Ravens only ran 150 offensive plays with three or more receivers on the field. The next-lowest team (Falcons) ran 349 plays with three or more receivers.
After sitting out 2022, Odell Beckham signed with the Ravens this offseason.
Beckham was mostly just fine during his time with the Browns, and he did not have a strong finish to the 2021 regular season with the Rams.
He came on strong during the Super Bowl run, however, catching 21 passes for 288 yards and two scores in three and a half games. He was potentially on his way to a Super Bowl MVP with two catches for 52 yards and a touchdown in less than two quarters of work before suffering a knee injury.
That small sample does not negate the fact his yards per route run has fallen every season since he left the Giants, he is coming back from a full season on the sidelines, and he will turn 31 during the season.
The good news is those concerns are priced in, and Beckham showed in that Super Bowl run there was at least something left in the tank back in 2021.
Beckham has the look of an upside bench stash in standard-sized leagues.
The Ravens have other options if any of those four falter.
Isaiah Likely caught 36 passes for 373 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie. He did not get a ton of opportunities playing behind Andrews, but he was targeted on 22.4% of his routes.
That target rate suggests Likely will be a fantasy factor if something happens to Andrews, and he showed a glimpse of that last season.
In the three games he played at least 50% of the snaps, Likely posted 6-77-1, 1-24-1, and 8-103-0 lines.
After playing over 70% of his snaps in the slot or out wide last season, Likely could also get more time if one of the top three receivers does not work out.
Baltimore also signed Nelson Agholor this offseason.
Aside from one big year with the Raiders, Agholor has been mostly inefficient throughout his NFL career. In two seasons with the Patriots, he averaged 1.18 yards per route run while catching 58.1% of his targets.
He would be nothing more than a volume bet in fantasy if something happens to the receivers at the top of the depth chart.
2022 Ravens Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 487 (7th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 3.5 (2nd)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.35 (20th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 77% (1st)
2023 Ravens Running Game Preview:
The Ravens will face the 14th-toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill
- OL: Ronnie Stanley, Ben Cleveland, Tyler Linderbaum, Kevin Zeitler, Morgan Moses
Coming back from a serious knee injury, J.K. Dobbins only played eight games last season and never played more than 50% of the offensive snaps.
While he only carried the ball 92 times, he averaged 5.7 yards on those carries and for his career has averaged 5.9 yards on 226 carries.
Among backs with at least 90 carries – to be fair, he just qualified – Dobbins ranked first in EPA per rush (0.09), second in success rate (44.6%), and first in rate of 10+ yard runs (17.4%).
The offensive line played a role in his success – he was first in yards before contact per rush – but he was fifth in rushing yards over expected per attempt according to Next Gen Stats.
There is a big enough sample of Dobbins being an extremely efficient running back, and he still gets to play with Lamar Jackson and behind that offensive line this season.
The concern is he has 251 total touches over his three-year career, has just six games where he played more than 50 percent of the offensive snaps, and has never touched the ball more than 17 times in a single game.
He also ran just 71 routes in eight games last season and has 32 career targets in 23 games.
Jackson has targeted running backs on 15.2% of his career throws, a rate that would have ranked 27th last season. Jackson himself ranked 28th last year with a 14.8% RB target rate.
So Dobbins is rarely in the route pattern, Jackson rarely throws to running backs, and Dobbins has yet to do anything to change either of those realities.
Among the 94 backs with at least 50 routes run last season, Dobbins ranked 77th in yards per route run and 45th in air yards per target.
There is also some concern about touchdowns.
In the 19 games the pair have played together, Dobbins has just one more carry than Jackson in goal-to-go situations. Dobbins has 10 rushing scores to eight for Jackson in those contests.
Dobbins also has to worry about Gus Edwards, who has one fewer touch on goal-to-go situations since 2020 in only two more games.
Dobbins did score nine times in 2020, but he out-shot his expected touchdown total by around four that season.
On top of all that, Dobbins missed the start of training camp because of an issue with his knee, although it is likely he was just “holding in” as he looks for a new contract.
The upside bets for Dobbins are he maintains his efficiency on an expanded workload and gets more scoring opportunities in a better offense. Even if that hits, though, the lack of receiving work puts a cap on his fantasy upside.
Edwards had an even tougher time recovering from his serious injury, not returning until Week 7 last season and managing nine games.
He was also highly efficient with his carries, though, averaging five yards per attempt. He has averaged at least five yards per carry in every season of his career.
Edwards has the same concerns as Dobbins – he has 24 targets in 52 career games – but does not project to get as many touches while both players are healthy.
In the four games the two played together last year, Dobbins averaged 14.5 touches per game to 8.5 for Edwards.
Edwards should be able to replicate Dobbins’ value if something happened to the starter, but he will have a tough time returning standalone value if he remains the clear No. 2 in the pecking order.
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