As we push into July and further downhill toward the 2023 fantasy season, we are extending our top-down approach that began with a look at the state of leaguewide production and usage at each skill position for fantasy by looking at team performance and output.
The goal is that by late August we have covered all corners of the fantasy earth from a team, player, position, and game theory stance to accurately calibrate our draft strategy for this upcoming season.
Kicking things off, we are looking at how the league and teams performed on a per-possession basis a year ago.
Highlights:
- Offenses scored points on just 37.9% of their possessions and a touchdown on 21.9% of drives. Those were the second-lowest and lowest rates since 2017.
- Since the 2010 season, 68.0% of the teams that were below average in scoring rate per drive improved the following season.
- Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018, the Chiefs have finished second (55.2%), second (53.3%), fourth (50.7%), first (51.6%), and first (48.8%) in scoring rate per drive.
- Detroit was third in the NFL last season in yards gained per drive (38.1), fourth in scoring rate per drive (45.5%), fourth in touchdown rate per drive (31.1%), third in punt rate per drive (31.1%), and second in turnover rate per possession (8.4%) last season.
Leaguewide Scoring and Touchdown Rates per Drive Since 2010:
| Year | Drives/Gm | Off TD/Game | Score% | TD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10.4 | 2.28 | 37.91% | 21.94% |
| 2021 | 10.4 | 2.48 | 39.46% | 23.94% |
| 2020 | 10.4 | 2.74 | 41.71% | 26.43% |
| 2019 | 10.6 | 2.40 | 37.54% | 22.79% |
| 2018 | 10.8 | 2.53 | 37.93% | 23.41% |
| 2017 | 11.1 | 2.21 | 35.16% | 19.92% |
| 2016 | 11.0 | 2.42 | 37.01% | 21.95% |
| 2015 | 11.2 | 2.38 | 35.72% | 21.19% |
| 2014 | 11.2 | 2.33 | 35.43% | 20.92% |
| 2013 | 11.6 | 2.39 | 35.04% | 20.53% |
| 2012 | 11.3 | 2.29 | 34.87% | 20.21% |
| 2011 | 11.5 | 2.26 | 34.02% | 19.73% |
| 2010 | 11.4 | 2.29 | 33.62% | 20.06% |
*Excluding drives ending in kneel downs
As we highlighted when taking a top-down look at the league as a whole in 2022, last season saw a scoring recession as the league came out of the pandemic and defenses adjusted their play style.
Offenses scored points on just 37.9% of their possessions and a touchdown on 21.9% of drives. Those were the second-lowest and lowest rates since 2017.
There was more that played into the decline of scoring last season than just the pandemic, but if you are just looking at things through the lens that covered the past three seasons — the 2020 season was heavily influenced by the pandemic, the 2021 season still carried an impact, and then the last season had no effect — you can see the stark steps down based on the varying degrees of how COVID played into those seasons.
Last year was the first time since the 2015 season that no NFL team scored on 50% of their drives.
Year-Over-Year R-Squared Correlation Per Drive Since 2010:
| Category | All | Top-10 | Bottom-10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score/Drive% | 0.2527 | 0.2056 | 0.1456 |
| TD/Drive% | 0.2441 | 0.1476 | 0.1105 |
| Off TD/Game | 0.1900 | 0.0928 | 0.0483 |
As we start to move towards a more team-specific outlook, looking at the predictability of per-drive metrics offers a mixed bag.
Since 2010, just around 25% of a team’s scoring rate per drive can be explained by the output from the season prior. Touchdown performance per drive is just below that mark while offensive scores per game take a step below the 20% mark.
When looking at just the teams at the top and bottom of the league in those seasons in the major categories, we can see that the more efficient offenses are more stable.
While our top-down correlations are not so strong that we are going to go all in on them from a blanket stance, top-10 teams in scoring efficiency fare better than bottom-rung teams in terms of rolling over their efficiency while teams at the bottom of the league are not as stable in being awful again.
That alone is inherently useful.
Not just for us having stronger convictions on offenses that were good, but it is easy to just look at a team and their lackluster output from a year prior and just write them off as being terrible again. There is surely a good amount of rebounding and recession towards the mean.
Despite there not being extremely reliable year-over-year correlations on the team level, there are still bulk trends to take away from things here that play into those splits.
Since the 2010 season, 68.0% of the teams that were below average in scoring rate per drive improved the following season.
Those teams also averaged an increase in average touchdown rate per drive of +4.3% with an average increase of 9.5 offensive touchdowns per season.
While subpar offenses are good bets for improvement the following season, the bad news there is just 35.7% of those teams that were in the bottom half of the league in scoring rate per drive then came back the following season and were in the top half of the league.
18.0% made the jump into the top 10.
While neither of those rates is going to get you worked up, that is still saying that on average roughly six teams in the bottom half of the league from the year prior are going to be top-half scoring offenses while nearly three teams per season are going to flip from being a bottom-half scoring offense to becoming a top-10 one.
On the other side of things, 64.8% of teams in the top half of the league in scoring rate per drive sustained top-half output the following season.
Just 18.2% of those teams dropped down to a bottom-10 offense the following season.
With some of those bulk trends noted, let us dive into per-drive team production from the 2022 season with some takeaways.
Team Per Drive Rates 2022:
| wdt_ID | Team | Drive/G | Yards/Drive | Score% | TD% | Punt% | TO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 10.7 | 29.0 | 33.0 | 17.6 | 36.8 | 13.2 |
| 2 | ATL | 9.5 | 33.3 | 40.7 | 21.0 | 38.3 | 11.7 |
| 3 | BAL | 9.9 | 33.6 | 41.4 | 19.5 | 33.7 | 12.4 |
| 4 | BUF | 10.0 | 39.5 | 48.1 | 31.3 | 28.1 | 16.3 |
| 5 | CAR | 10.6 | 28.4 | 36.5 | 18.2 | 44.8 | 9.9 |
| 6 | CHI | 10.2 | 29.2 | 35.6 | 21.3 | 37.9 | 13.2 |
| 7 | CIN | 10.1 | 35.2 | 45.1 | 30.2 | 36.4 | 10.5 |
| 8 | CLE | 10.1 | 33.9 | 36.0 | 22.1 | 35.5 | 11.6 |
| 9 | DAL | 10.9 | 32.6 | 43.5 | 28.0 | 36.6 | 11.3 |
| 10 | DEN | 11.4 | 28.6 | 29.5 | 15.0 | 49.7 | 10.9 |
| 11 | DET | 9.8 | 38.1 | 45.5 | 31.1 | 31.1 | 8.4 |
| 12 | GB | 9.9 | 34.3 | 38.1 | 23.2 | 31.0 | 11.9 |
| 13 | HOU | 11.2 | 25.7 | 30.0 | 14.7 | 46.3 | 14.2 |
| 14 | IND | 11.1 | 27.8 | 30.2 | 13.2 | 37.0 | 17.5 |
| 15 | JAC | 10.2 | 34.8 | 41.0 | 23.7 | 33.5 | 12.7 |
| 16 | KC | 10.0 | 40.3 | 48.8 | 34.7 | 31.2 | 10.6 |
| 17 | LAC | 10.5 | 34.4 | 40.2 | 22.9 | 40.8 | 10.1 |
| 18 | LAR | 9.8 | 28.5 | 35.5 | 18.7 | 42.8 | 13.9 |
| 19 | LV | 9.9 | 34.6 | 43.2 | 23.1 | 34.9 | 12.4 |
| 20 | MIA | 10.1 | 35.6 | 40.1 | 25.0 | 34.9 | 12.2 |
| 21 | MIN | 11.1 | 33.1 | 37.6 | 24.9 | 38.1 | 12.2 |
| 22 | NE | 10.6 | 28.4 | 34.8 | 17.1 | 43.6 | 12.7 |
| 23 | NO | 10.5 | 31.3 | 33.1 | 20.2 | 43.3 | 13.5 |
| 24 | NYG | 10.1 | 32.3 | 38.6 | 21.6 | 42.7 | 7.6 |
| 25 | NYJ | 11.0 | 28.2 | 31.0 | 15.0 | 44.4 | 12.3 |
| 26 | PHI | 10.2 | 37.5 | 45.7 | 32.9 | 31.8 | 11.0 |
| 27 | PIT | 9.9 | 31.5 | 36.7 | 16.6 | 40.8 | 10.1 |
| 28 | SEA | 10.5 | 32.8 | 42.5 | 23.5 | 36.9 | 11.7 |
| 29 | SF | 10.3 | 34.7 | 44.0 | 28.6 | 34.9 | 9.7 |
| 30 | TB | 10.8 | 30.9 | 33.7 | 16.8 | 42.9 | 10.9 |
| 31 | TEN | 10.8 | 26.0 | 29.0 | 18.0 | 49.2 | 10.9 |
| 32 | WAS | 11.2 | 29.6 | 30.5 | 17.4 | 43.7 | 12.1 |
*Excluding drives ending in kneel downs
While scoring was down in 2022, we still did have five teams reach the end zone on over 30% of their possessions. That total was down from 2021 (seven teams) and 2020 (10 teams), but that was still more teams to reach the end zone at that arbitrary rate in any season outside of those 2020 and 2021 seasons in the 2000s.
Kansas City Chiefs
You do not need me to tell you how good the Chiefs have been on offense under Patrick Mahomes, but their overall front-end consistency is staggering.
The Chiefs were first in the league in scoring rate per drive (48.8%) and rate of drives to reach the end zone (34.7%).
Since Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018, the Chiefs have finished second (55.2%), second (53.3%), fourth (50.7%), first (51.6%), and first in scoring rate per drive.
Just four other teams over those five years have multiple seasons with top-five finishes in scoring rate per drive, and no other team has more than three such seasons.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are that team, finishing in the top five in scoring rate per drive in each of the past three seasons.
Only the Chiefs scored a higher rate per drive than the Bills last season while only Kansas City and the Eagles scored a touchdown at a higher rate per drive than the Bills.
While it is not shocking for me to tell you that the Bills were good at scoring points, what is impressive about those rates is when you pair them with the fact that the Bills were 31st in the league in turnover rate per drive (16.3%).
That was the highest turnover rate per drive that Buffalo has had since the 2012 season after carrying rates of 12.0% in 2021 and 13.0% in 2020.
Detriot Lions
The Lions are a popular team circled to make significant strides this season, and when you look at their top-down offensive efficiency from a year ago, it is easy to see why.
Detroit was third in the NFL last season in yards gained per drive (38.1), fourth in scoring rate per drive (45.5%), fourth in touchdown rate per drive (31.1%), third in punt rate per drive (31.1%), and second in turnover rate per possession (8.4%).
The Lions only have one really expensive player in fantasy drafts: Amon-Ra St. Brown (13.6 overall). Jahmyr Gibbs has a current average draft position of 38.1, but then you have to go to David Montgomery (78.7) to find the next Lion.
Jameson Williams (97.3), Jared Goff (130.3), and Sam LaPorta (165.3) are all cheap avenues to tap into this offense while they have a trio of back-end wideouts in Marvin Jones (211.7), Josh Reynolds (215.3), and Kalif Raymond (215.9) that are worthy dart throws to close out drafts.
20% TD Club
Scoring touchdowns was at a premium last NFL season.
We had 13 different teams fail to score a touchdown on 20% of their drives. That was the highest number of teams in that bucket since the 2017 season (15 teams).
Over the previous decade, 75.6% of those teams raise their touchdown rate per drive the following season with an average increase of +5.6% and an average spike of +9.0 touchdowns per season.
We will not run down all of the players here with depressed ADP based on their anemic offenses last season, but you should be looking for a dead-cat bounce for three-fourths of those teams in the table when value hunting as fantasy drafts move on.
30% Scoring Club
The Broncos and Titans were the only teams that scored on fewer than 30% of their drives last season.
Unsurprisingly, both of those teams went in a different direction this offseason with play-callers.
That lower-end threshold has been a strong area to target turnarounds.
Since 2010, there have been 76 other teams that have fallen below that threshold. 63 of them (81.8%) scored at a higher rate the following season. Those teams saw an average increase in their scoring rate per drive of +8.4% while averaging +9.0 offensive touchdowns.
Looking back at the teams last season, the Giants, Jaguars, and Texans fit that criteria.
Houston was still at the bottom of the league, but the Giants and Jags provided us with fantasy values.
The Giants went from a +9.9% increase in scoring rate per drive while the Jaguars had a +13.8% jump.
There is excitement for the Broncos once again this offseason with the hire of Sean Payton.
Payton has nowhere to go but up considering how much of a disaster the 2021 season was with Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson.
Denver was 31st in scoring rate per drive (29.5%) and 30th in touchdown rate per drive (15.0%) while they punted on a league-high 49.7% of drives that did not end in kneel downs.
It was the highest rate of punts per drive for a team since the 2018 Cardinals (51.6%), who started rookie Josh Rosen.
The Titans were a disaster on just about every front last season. Ryan Tannehill missed a chunk of the season, Malik Willis was pressed into playing time before he was acclimated to the league, and the team used Joshua Dobbs in his first career start in a must-win game to close the season in an attempt to salvage a season that saw them lose the final seven games.
At the end of things, Tennessee closed the season 31st in yards per drive (26.0), dead last in scoring rate (29.0%), 31st in punt rate (49.2%), and 23rd in touchdown rate per drive (18.0%).
Indianapolis Colts
Another team with new hires across the board, the Colts almost have to fall forward based on their output in 2022.
The Colts scored a touchdown on a league-low 13.2% of drives.
They were just the 21st team since 2010 that scored a touchdown below 14.0% of their possessions. All but two of those teams scored more touchdowns the following season with an average increase of +13.0 touchdowns the next season.
Last year’s Giants were one of those teams. After scoring a touchdown on just 12.7% of drives in 2021, the Giants rose to a 21.6% rate with 14 more touchdowns.
Not only did the Colts fail to put the ball into the end zone, but they also turned the ball over on a league-high 17.5% of possessions. That was the highest rate for a team since the 2019 Buccaneers (21.9%).
Of the 31 teams since 2010 that turned the football over at the same rate or higher than the Colts last season, only two of those teams had as many turnovers the following season with an average decrease of -12.0 giveaways.
I am always hesitant on offenses that I anticipate to be helmed by rookie passers for the crux of a season, but the Colts should be able to fall out of bed and be more efficient by default in 2023.
Scoring Distribution
Bringing this one home, the last section is not only going to look at the team scoring rate per drive but how often those teams were converting those scores into touchdowns and who was solely kicking field goals when they did score points.
2022 Team Dispersal of Scoring Plays:
| wdt_ID | Team | Score/Drive% | TD% | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 33.00% | 53.30% | 46.70% |
| 2 | ATL | 40.70% | 51.50% | 48.50% |
| 3 | BAL | 41.40% | 47.10% | 52.90% |
| 4 | BUF | 48.10% | 64.90% | 35.10% |
| 5 | CAR | 36.50% | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 6 | CHI | 35.60% | 59.70% | 40.30% |
| 7 | CIN | 45.10% | 67.10% | 32.90% |
| 8 | CLE | 36.00% | 61.30% | 38.70% |
| 9 | DAL | 43.50% | 64.20% | 35.80% |
| 10 | DEN | 29.50% | 50.90% | 49.10% |
| 11 | DET | 45.50% | 68.40% | 31.60% |
| 12 | GB | 38.10% | 60.90% | 39.10% |
| 13 | HOU | 30.00% | 49.10% | 50.90% |
| 14 | IND | 30.20% | 43.90% | 56.10% |
| 15 | JAC | 41.00% | 57.70% | 42.30% |
| 16 | KC | 48.80% | 71.10% | 28.90% |
| 17 | LAC | 40.20% | 56.90% | 43.10% |
| 18 | LAR | 35.50% | 52.50% | 47.50% |
| 19 | LV | 43.20% | 54.10% | 45.90% |
| 20 | MIA | 40.10% | 62.30% | 37.70% |
| 21 | MIN | 37.60% | 64.90% | 35.10% |
| 22 | NE | 34.80% | 49.20% | 50.80% |
| 23 | NO | 33.10% | 61.00% | 39.00% |
| 24 | NYG | 38.60% | 56.70% | 43.30% |
| 25 | NYJ | 31.00% | 48.30% | 51.70% |
| 26 | PHI | 45.70% | 72.20% | 27.80% |
| 27 | PIT | 36.70% | 45.20% | 54.80% |
| 28 | SEA | 42.50% | 55.30% | 44.70% |
| 29 | SF | 44.00% | 64.10% | 34.60% |
| 30 | TB | 33.70% | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 31 | TEN | 29.00% | 62.30% | 37.70% |
| 32 | WAS | 30.50% | 56.90% | 43.10% |
Even in a depressed scoring season for the league as a whole, we did still have four teams — the Eagles (72.2%), Chiefs (71.1%), Lions (68.4%), and Bengals (67.1%) — have over two-thirds of their scoring plays be touchdowns.
Not only did the Chiefs and Eagles score at a high rate per drive, but they scored touchdowns when they did.
Both had over 70% of their scoring plays come via touchdowns.
Since 2010, there have been 34 other teams to convert over 70% of their scoring plays into touchdowns. Just seven of those teams matched their touchdown totals the following season with an average decrease of -10.7 offensive scores per season.
Even for the Chiefs, this has happened once over this dominant run.
In 2018, 73.3% of the Kansas City scoring plays were touchdowns. They scored a league-high 66 touchdowns that season.
The following season, 57.5% of their scoring plays were touchdowns as they scored 46 touchdowns. Now, they were still sixth in the league in touchdowns, but the odds are against both of these teams running as pure as they did a year ago in converting scores into touchdowns.
Sub 50%
Working in the other direction, we had six teams — the Patriots, Texans, Jets, Ravens, Steelers, and Colts — that had over 50% of their scoring plays come via field goals.
Since 2010, there have been 52 other teams to have over half of their scoring plays come via kicks. Of those teams, 41 of them (78.8%) scored more touchdowns the following season with an average increase among those teams of +11.7 touchdowns per season.
Only 10 of those teams came back the following season and had 50% of their scoring plays come via field goals again with an average rate of 59.8% of their scores coming via touchdowns.
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