As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, D'Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny, and every other notable Eagle, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Jalen Hurts finished 23rd among all quarterbacks in second-half dropbacks and 31st in fourth-quarter dropbacks. He had fewer fourth-quarter dropbacks than Joe Flacco, who played five games.
- A.J. Brown was targeted 61 times in the second half of games (19th among receivers), and DeVonta Smith was targeted 56 times (22nd).
- Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert handled 75 percent of Philly’s targets when all three were healthy last season.
2022 Eagles Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 477 (2nd)
- Total Offense: 6,614 (2nd)
- Plays: 1,124 (5th)
- Offensive TDs: 57 (2nd)
- Points Per Drive: 2.5 (3rd)
- EPA+ Per Play: 10.0 (3rd)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 28.86 seconds (1st)
2023 Eagles Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Nick Sirianni
- Offensive Coordinator: Brian Johnson
The Eagles paid the success tax this offseason.
DC Jonathan Gannon left to be the Cardinals head coach, taking LBs coach Nick Rallis with him, and OC Shane Steichen landed the top job with the Colts.
Gannon will be replaced by ex-Seahawks assistant head coach Sean Desai while Steichen will be succeeded by QBs coach Brian Johnson.
The internal hire suggests the Eagles will keep things about the same on offense, but about the same might not be as run-heavy as the numbers look on the surface.
The Eagles were just 0.9% under their expected pass rate last season, making them the 10th most “pass-heavy” attack in the league adjusted for the situation.
They also had the sixth-highest neutral pass rate and played fast with the No. 1 situation-neutral pace.
As Rich Hribar has pointed out, the 2022 Eagles were an aggressive, pass-heavy team in the first half.
“Philadelphia dropped back on 64.8% of their first-half plays last season (eighth), which signaled that they were going to be an aggressive offense.”
But after putting most games away early, the Eagles did not ask Jalen Hurts to throw much in the second half last season.
“In the third quarter, that dropback rate for the Eagles fell to 14th (58.9%) and then down to dead last in the fourth quarter (38.6%) since the Eagles put games away early.”
The Eagles did score 12.6 more touchdowns than expected given their yardage total last season, something that led to every notable fantasy player on the team going over their expected fantasy total.
That is a concern moving forward, but increased second-half volume could help bridge that gap as long as Johnson retains the smart passing and quick pace of the previous coordinator.
2022 Eagles Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 626 (19th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 58.8% (6th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -0.9% (10th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 17.7% (8th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 62% (9th)
2023 Eagles Passing Game Preview:
The Eagles will face the 10th-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Jalen Hurts, Marcus Mariota
- WR: A.J. Brown, Britain Covey
- WR: DeVonta Smith, Devon Allen
- WR: Quez Watkins, Olamide Zaccheaus
- TE: Dallas Goedert, Jack Stoll
The best quarterback value last season, Jalen Hurts was the QB1 in per-game scoring, bettering Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes by over a half-point per game.
Hurts was only behind Justin Fields in rushing fantasy points per game, contributing 760 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. He has 23 rushing touchdowns in 30 games over the last two seasons.
He was the QB11 in per-game passing fantasy points, but as hinted at in the coaching section, there is reason to expect improvement in that area.
Hurts finished 23rd among all quarterbacks in second-half dropbacks and 31st in fourth-quarter dropbacks.
He had fewer fourth-quarter dropbacks than Joe Flacco, who played five games.
If he does get more chances to pass, that should be good news for Hurts. He finished 9th among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per pass attempt last season, third in yards per attempt, and 13th in touchdown rate.
He did run a little hot from an expected fantasy points stance, but increased volume should help bridge that gap.
Hurts proved last season he can be an elite fantasy option even without elite passing numbers, and there is a pathway for him to see more passing volume this season. He makes up an elite top three with Allen and Mahomes.
The second-half passing numbers also depressed opportunity for the receiving corps.
A.J. Brown was targeted 61 times in the second half of games (19th among receivers), and DeVonta Smith was targeted 56 times (22nd).
Brown was targeted 84 times in the first half (4th) while Smith earned 80 first-half targets (6th).
In his first season with the Eagles, Brown exploded for 1,496 yards and 11 touchdowns on 88 receptions.
He was third among qualifying receivers in yards per route run (2.6), fifth in yards per target (10.3), and sixth in yards after the catch per reception (6.23).
He finished 7th in per-game fantasy scoring and fifth overall.
Like the rest of this offense, Brown beat his expected totals given his usage in every important fantasy category – he was the WR15 in expected fantasy points per game according to PFF – but more second-half volume could alleviate regression concerns.
The real threat to Brown producing another ceiling season is Smith, who from Week 10 until the Super Bowl saw at least eight targets in all but one game, the team’s drubbing of the quarterback-less 49ers in the playoffs.
Over those nine games, Smith (30.1%) had a larger target share than Brown (27.5%). He averaged 14.54 fantasy points per game to 14.03 for Brown.
Both of those numbers would have been good enough for the top 10 last season, so there is reason to believe both Browns and Smith can produce WR1 numbers, especially if the Eagles are forced to throw more in the second half.
Smith (WR13) comes off the board around the same time as Jaylen Waddle (WR11) and Tee Higgins (WR14) in fantasy drafts.
All three receivers carry significant contingency value should something happen to the lead receiver on their team, and all three have produced WR1 fantasy points for stretches on their own.
Unlike Higgins, whose numbers with Ja’Marr Chase last season were concerning, and Waddle, whose scoring was more volatile last season, Smith looks like a safe bet at cost even if Brown stays healthy.
Dallas Goedert was the third member of Philly’s receiving trio, finishing with a 55-702-3 line in 12 games.
He saw 19.7% of the targets when healthy, the only Eagle besides the two receivers with better than an 8% target share in those games.
Goedert finished as the TE5 in per-game scoring last season despite finishing 24th in targets per route (18%) and 10th in targets per game (5.8).
While he only had two weekly finishes in the top 5, he was the TE14 or better in 10 of 12 games, offering reliability that is difficult to find at the tight end position.
Goedert does have a couple of paths to elite fantasy output – an injury to one of the top two receivers or the Eagles throwing a lot more in the second half of games – but his fantasy upside is capped somewhat as long as Brown and Smith are healthy.
Even so, his TE6 valuation in early drafts is fair.
Brown, Smith, and Goedert handled 75 percent of Philly’s targets when all three were healthy last season, which did not leave much room for a fantasy-viable third receiver.
Quez Watkins led the pack last year, finishing with 51 targets, but he was losing snaps to Zach Pascal by the end of the season.
Olamide Zaccheaus could push Watkins for the No. 3 job after catching 40 passes for the Falcons last season, but none of it really matters from a fantasy perspective as long as the top three are healthy.
2022 Eagles Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 498 (4th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 3.3 (4th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.66 (6th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 75% (2nd)
2023 Eagles Running Game Preview:
The Eagles will face the second-toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: D’Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott
- OL: Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, Jason Kelce, Cam Jurgens, Lane Johnson
*Preseason Update: As I wrote below, Kenneth Gainwell could turn into a fantasy steal as early as training camp, and it seems like that is happening.
While D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny, played in the first preseason game, Gainwell was given the night off following a week of reports that he was working as the lead back.
Gainwell got the start in the second preseason game while Swift sat out. Penny played behind Boston Scott.
Swift is an avoid at cost right now given the uncertainty, and Penny could be fourth on the depth chart. Gainwell is a must draft until his ADP rises.
Unlike the passing game, the backfield is difficult to predict.
After losing Miles Sanders in free agency, the Eagles signed Rashaad Penny in free agency and traded for D’Andre Swift on draft weekend.
A former second-round pick, Swift averaged 5.5 yards on 520 touches in three years with the Lions, but he missed multiple games in every season and could not establish himself as the clear lead back.
A former first-round pick, Penny averaged 8.4 games per season during his five years with the Seahawks, but he was electric when on the field.
Penny has averaged 5.9 yards per touch thus far in his career including 5.7 yards per carry. Over the last two seasons, Penny is first among qualifying running backs in yards after contact per rush. His 4.43 mark is over a half-yard better than Nick Chubb in second place.
Both backs are explosive when available – Penny is second and Swift is ninth in the rate of 10-yard runs over the last two seasons – and struggle to stay healthy.
Neither back cost the Eagles much of anything, either.
Penny signed a one-year, $1.35 million contract. Swift is owed a little more at $1.77 million, but he only cost the Eagles a 2025 fourth-round pick.
Swift has more fantasy upside as a receiver, but the Eagles were dead last in running back target share last season, not surprising given they are led by a mobile quarterback.
Swift also has competition in that area with Kenneth Gainwell still in the picture.
Gainwell led the backfield with 29 targets last season and had a mini-breakout with 236 total yards and a touchdown on 40 touches in the playoffs.
Another concern for every member of this backfield is Jalen Hurts, who has 23 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons. Hurts has handled 42 of Philly’s 125 goal-to-go carries over that span.
Both Swift and Penny bring undeniable upside given their per-touch efficiency, the elite offensive line they will get to run behind, and the offensive environment.
Right now, however, the most likely outcome is a value-sapping committee that loses passing-down work to Gainwell and touchdown opportunities to Hurts.
Swift has more theoretical upside given his pass-catching ability – Penny has 36 career targets in 42 games – but his early RB23 draft cost is tough to swallow.
Penny has proven to be an elite runner in recent seasons, and his RB37 draft cost is easier to stomach even if he gets injured or things go poorly.
Currently the RB52 and outside the top 150 overall, Gainwell is a good late dart throw that could prove to be a steal as early as training camp.
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