As we push into July and further downhill toward the 2023 fantasy season, we are extending our top-down approach that began with a look at the state of leaguewide production and usage at each skill position for fantasy by looking at team performance and output.
The goal is that by late August we have covered all corners of the fantasy earth from a team, player, position, and game theory stance to accurately calibrate our draft strategy for this upcoming season.
We opened things up with a look at how the league and teams performed on a per-possession basis a year ago and followed up with a look at how good or bad teams were converting yardage into touchdowns.
Now we are digging into how good teams were at reaching and converting in the red zone, and whether teams needed to reach the red zone to score touchdowns.
Highlights:
- Just 29.9% of all leaguewide possessions reached the red zone last season. That was the lowest rate since the 2018 season.
- From 2010-2021, 81.2% of all teams that failed to score on half of their red zone trips came back and increased their red zone conversion rate the following season with an average spike of +12.6%.
- Pittsburgh averaged 6.8 yards on their touchdowns in 2022. No team over the past 30 years has averaged fewer yards on touchdown plays.
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Leaguewide Red Zone Production Since 2010:
| Year | RZ/Drive | RZ TD% | NFL TD% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 29.94% | 56.81% | 75.82% |
| 2021 | 31.74% | 58.23% | 77.62% |
| 2020 | 32.92% | 62.00% | 75.87% |
| 2019 | 30.03% | 56.10% | 73.15% |
| 2018 | 29.37% | 58.82% | 74.18% |
| 2017 | 26.78% | 52.42% | 71.36% |
| 2016 | 29.57% | 55.26% | 74.86% |
| 2015 | 27.28% | 55.77% | 72.49% |
| 2014 | 27.91% | 53.28% | 71.86% |
| 2013 | 27.13% | 55.20% | 73.48% |
| 2012 | 27.05% | 53.75% | 72.97% |
| 2011 | 27.30% | 51.98% | 72.31% |
| 2010 | 26.84% | 52.16% | 71.48% |
*All Drives exclude possessions that end in kneel downs
Last week we covered how the 2022 season was a scoring recession coming out of the pandemic and with NFL defenses adjusting to the best offenses.
Knowing the low-scoring statistics in that post, you should already be prepared to see that red zone production across the league suffered as well.
Just 29.9% of all leaguewide possessions reached the red zone last season. That was the lowest rate since the 2018 season.
Not only did fewer drives reach the red zone, but teams were also worse at converting the red zone trips they did get into touchdowns. The league touchdown rate on red zone possessions was 56.8%, the lowest rate over the past three years.
If you are wondering why the red zone is so important to us for fantasy football, the answer is that's where the touchdowns are scored. 75.8% of all offensive touchdowns came in the red zone last season. That rate was lower than the 2021 season, but it was the third consecutive year that over three-fourths of all offensive touchdowns came from the red zone.
It is not a secret the closer you get to the end zone, the easier it is to produce a touchdown. Still, since 2010, here are some numbers to consider:
- 74.6% of all touchdowns scored have come from inside of the red zone.
- 72.9% of all red zone touchdowns are scored from inside of the 10-yard line.
- 47.3% of all red zone touchdowns are scored from inside of the 5-yard line.
- 86.7% of all rushing touchdowns and 66.8% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside of the red zone.
- 74.4% of all rushing touchdowns and 43.5% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside of the 10-yard line.
- 57.8% of all rushing touchdowns and 22.4% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside of the 5-yard line.
- 31.3% of all red zone touchdowns are scored from the 1-2 yard lines.
- 23.1% of all NFL touchdowns are scored from the 1-2 yard lines.
- 43.8% of all rushing touchdowns and 11.8% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from the 1-2 yard lines.
It is harder to run the ball in for a touchdown from long distances, but even two-thirds of the league’s passing touchdowns come from inside of the red zone.
The numbers above also further illuminate why the decline in rushing opportunities for running backs closer to the end zone has had a significant impact on fantasy within the position.
2022 Team Red Zone Rates:
| wdt_ID | Team | RZ Drive% | RZTD% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 24.3 | 56.8 |
| 2 | ATL | 33.6 | 55.6 |
| 3 | BAL | 35.2 | 44.4 |
| 4 | BUF | 36.0 | 60.0 |
| 5 | CAR | 25.4 | 56.5 |
| 6 | CHI | 28.3 | 56.0 |
| 7 | CIN | 34.6 | 63.6 |
| 8 | CLE | 32.6 | 53.6 |
| 9 | DAL | 30.2 | 71.4 |
| 10 | DEN | 18.5 | 55.6 |
| 11 | DET | 40.7 | 66.2 |
| 12 | GB | 32.4 | 51.9 |
| 13 | HOU | 25.1 | 47.9 |
| 14 | IND | 25.2 | 45.8 |
| 15 | JAX | 33.4 | 55.4 |
| 16 | KC | 42.0 | 71.1 |
| 17 | LAC | 35.1 | 54.6 |
| 18 | LAR | 26.6 | 55.6 |
| 19 | LV | 28.2 | 48.9 |
| 20 | MIA | 29.7 | 59.3 |
| 21 | MIN | 34.2 | 63.2 |
| 22 | NE | 24.4 | 42.2 |
| 23 | NO | 26.7 | 52.1 |
| 24 | NYG | 27.8 | 64.8 |
| 25 | NYJ | 24.6 | 43.5 |
| 26 | PHI | 37.3 | 68.0 |
| 27 | PIT | 31.2 | 51.9 |
| 28 | SEA | 30.4 | 48.3 |
| 29 | SF | 35.0 | 52.8 |
| 30 | TB | 26.8 | 50.9 |
| 31 | TEN | 23.2 | 64.3 |
| 32 | WAS | 25.1 | 51.1 |
If you are matching up the rate of drives a team reached the red zone above with the top-down scoring rate per drive chart from Tuesday, you will find a lot of overlap between the haves and have-nots from a year ago.
The four teams with the highest rates of reaching the red zone per drive were the Chiefs (42.0%), Lions (40.7%), Eagles (37.3%), and Bills (36.0%).
Then things get a bit interesting and give us our first glimpse into potential regression candidates.
The Ravens were fifth in the league in rate of drives to reach the red zone (35.2%), but they were 30th in converting red zone possessions into touchdowns (44.4%).
From 2010-2021, 81.2% of all teams that failed to score on half of their red zone trips came back and increased their red zone conversion rate the following season with an average spike of +12.6%.
The Raiders, Seahawks, Texans, Colts, Jets, and Patriots were the other teams that were below a 50% conversion rate in the red zone a year ago.
New England’s 42.2% red zone conversion rate was dead last in the NFL and their lowest rate as a team in the 2000s.
There have been 22 teams since 2010 with a worse red zone touchdown rate than the 2022 Patriots. All but one of them increased their touchdown rate the following season with an average increase of +18.5%.
On the other end of things, it is hard to sustain a high conversion rate in the red zone.
Both the Cowboys and Chiefs converted over 70% of their red zone trips into touchdowns last season.
There have been just 14 other teams since 2010 to convert in the red zone with that type of success. Every single one of those teams had a lower rate the following season with an average decrease of -14.8%.
In the first two posts in this series, the 2022 Chiefs were comparable to the 2018 Kansas City team, and that is true here again.
That 2018 team converted 73.1% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns. The following season, it was still strong at 60.0% (11th in the league that season) but played a major role in the team scoring 20 fewer overall touchdowns. You do not have to run from all regression, but we should bet on the Chiefs scoring at a lower rate this season than they did in 2022.
There are a few other standouts here as well.
The Chargers were sixth in the NFL in rate of drives to reach the red zone (35.1%) but were 18th in red zone touchdown rate (54.6%).
The 49ers were seventh in red zone drive rate (34.9%) but 20th in touchdown conversion rate (52.8%) of those drives.
In the inverse direction, the Giants were fifth in the league in converting 64.8% of their red zone drives into touchdowns but were 20th in the league in the rate of drives to reach the red zone (27.8%).
The Titans were once again good in the red zone, converting 64.3% of their red zone trips into touchdowns (sixth), but were 31st in the league in rate of drives to reach the red zone (23.2%).
Tennessee has now converted 60% or more of their red zone trips into touchdowns in four consecutive seasons.
No team reached the red zone at a lower rate per drive last season than the Broncos at 18.5%. That was the lowest rate for a team since 2018.
The good news is that all 11 teams with a worse rate than the Broncos since 2010 came back the following season and had an increase in the rate of drives to reach the red zone. Those teams averaged an increase of +10.5% spike in that department.
2022 Team Red Zone Play Splits:
| wdt_ID | Tm | RZ Plays | DB% | Inside 10 | RZ Play% | DB% | In. 5 | RZ Play% | DB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 132 | 52.7 | 54 | 40.9 | 50.7 | 23 | 17.4 | 35.1 |
| 2 | ATL | 166 | 38.8 | 73 | 44.0 | 44.6 | 32 | 19.3 | 47.4 |
| 3 | BAL | 168 | 51.2 | 63 | 37.5 | 48.8 | 24 | 14.3 | 45.7 |
| 4 | BUF | 160 | 57.2 | 73 | 45.6 | 51.1 | 36 | 22.5 | 50.0 |
| 5 | CAR | 119 | 41.7 | 51 | 42.9 | 38.7 | 23 | 19.3 | 33.3 |
| 6 | CHI | 124 | 42.8 | 56 | 45.2 | 41.5 | 28 | 22.6 | 47.1 |
| 7 | CIN | 171 | 59.4 | 86 | 50.3 | 46.3 | 44 | 25.7 | 44.8 |
| 8 | CLE | 158 | 53.6 | 65 | 41.1 | 48.7 | 33 | 20.9 | 43.6 |
| 9 | DAL | 141 | 52.1 | 73 | 51.8 | 47.9 | 33 | 23.4 | 32.6 |
| 10 | DEN | 90 | 60.3 | 56 | 62.2 | 56.3 | 26 | 28.9 | 56.3 |
| 11 | DET | 189 | 54.7 | 97 | 51.3 | 46.2 | 55 | 29.1 | 41.9 |
| 12 | GB | 144 | 58.0 | 66 | 45.8 | 58.6 | 27 | 18.8 | 50.0 |
| 13 | HOU | 135 | 59.0 | 48 | 35.6 | 50.9 | 22 | 16.3 | 45.8 |
| 14 | IND | 147 | 51.8 | 62 | 42.2 | 50.0 | 32 | 21.8 | 43.2 |
| 15 | JAX | 163 | 55.1 | 74 | 45.4 | 46.5 | 37 | 22.7 | 41.5 |
| 16 | KC | 209 | 66.3 | 110 | 52.6 | 65.9 | 57 | 27.3 | 60.3 |
| 17 | LAC | 178 | 59.9 | 82 | 46.1 | 57.1 | 36 | 20.2 | 56.8 |
| 18 | LAR | 124 | 59.7 | 58 | 46.8 | 59.7 | 28 | 22.6 | 50.0 |
| 19 | LV | 126 | 56.4 | 59 | 46.8 | 53.1 | 26 | 20.6 | 48.6 |
| 20 | MIA | 121 | 58.0 | 46 | 38.0 | 58.1 | 25 | 20.7 | 48.3 |
| 21 | MIN | 174 | 65.2 | 89 | 51.2 | 53.3 | 44 | 25.3 | 41.8 |
| 22 | NE | 117 | 51.2 | 62 | 53.0 | 50.0 | 22 | 18.8 | 50.0 |
| 23 | NO | 123 | 55.2 | 46 | 37.4 | 46.7 | 21 | 17.1 | 47.8 |
| 24 | NYG | 122 | 46.2 | 63 | 51.6 | 40.8 | 30 | 24.6 | 21.9 |
| 25 | NYJ | 136 | 57.4 | 55 | 40.4 | 50.7 | 24 | 17.7 | 41.4 |
| 26 | PHI | 178 | 36.1 | 86 | 48.3 | 26.8 | 47 | 26.4 | 15.7 |
| 27 | PIT | 141 | 53.1 | 61 | 43.3 | 47.1 | 34 | 24.1 | 38.9 |
| 28 | SEA | 143 | 45.1 | 50 | 35.0 | 60.8 | 18 | 12.6 | 59.4 |
| 29 | SF | 172 | 58.2 | 92 | 53.5 | 43.8 | 45 | 26.2 | 35.3 |
| 30 | TB | 152 | 70.3 | 76 | 50.0 | 64.0 | 32 | 21.1 | 59.0 |
| 31 | TEN | 109 | 61.8 | 44 | 40.4 | 55.6 | 23 | 21.1 | 28.0 |
| 32 | WAS | 147 | 51.4 | 70 | 47.6 | 44.2 | 32 | 21.8 | 57.9 |
Knowing that all of those red zone plays are not equal, we can take a look at the types of red zone plays teams had a year ago and their play-calling splits in each area of the field.
Right away, we can see why the Ravens ended up having such a poor touchdown conversion rate in the red zone. While they were eighth in the NFL in total red zone plays run, just 37.5% of those red zone plays came inside of the 10-yard line, which was 29th in the NFL. They had a ton of drives reach the red zone and then immediately stall out.
No team had a lower rate of red zone plays from inside of the 10-yard line than the Seahawks (34.9%). Seattle ran just 18 plays from inside of the 5-yard line, which was the fewest in the NFL.
The Chiefs ran more plays from inside of the 10-yard line (110) than all but one team in the 2000s, which was the 2012 Patriots. The only teams in the 2000s to run more plays inside of the 5-yard line than the Chiefs last season were the 2002 Vikings and the 2011 Patriots.
From a play-calling stance, no team threw the ball at a lower rate in the red zone than the Bears (32.3%). It was the fifth-lowest pass rate of the 2000s, but since the NFL counts scrambles as rushing plays, there is some manipulation there via Justin Fields’ rushes.
The Eagles (36.1%), Falcons (38.8%), and Panthers (41.7%) all had lower true dropback rates than the Bears inside of the red zone.
The only team that had a lower dropback rate than Philadelphia’s last season in the 2000s was the 2020 Patriots when they were spamming Cam Newton runs in the red zone.
Using the strengths of Jalen Hurts, the Eagles had just a 26.8% dropback rate on plays inside of the 10-yard line and a 15.7% rate on plays inside of the 5-yard line. No team has had a lower dropback rate inside of the five since 2016.
The Giants were also ultra-conservative and used their mobile quarterback near the end zone. New York had a dropback rate of 46.2% in the red zone (27th), 40.8% inside of the 10-yard line (30th), and 21.9% inside of the 5-yard line (31st).
The Chiefs were on the opposite end, putting the ball in the hands of Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City dropped back to pass 66.3% of the time in the red zone, which was only behind the Bucs. The Chiefs then led the NFL in dropback rates inside of the 10 (65.9%) and inside of the five (60.3%).
I have been on the upside angle of the Seattle passing game all summer, and this is another example of what could create fantasy points. Seattle did not have a lot of plays near the end zone last season, but when they were down there, they were throwing the ball, ranking third in the NFL in dropback rate inside of the 10 and second to only the Chiefs inside of the five.
Which NFL Teams Needed the Red Zone?
| wdt_ID | Tm | Year | oTD | RZ TD | RZTD% | >RZTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 2022 | 32 | 25 | 78.1 | 7 |
| 2 | ATL | 2022 | 34 | 30 | 88.2 | 4 |
| 3 | BAL | 2022 | 33 | 27 | 81.8 | 6 |
| 4 | BUF | 2022 | 50 | 35 | 70.0 | 15 |
| 5 | CAR | 2022 | 32 | 25 | 78.1 | 7 |
| 6 | CHI | 2022 | 37 | 28 | 75.7 | 9 |
| 7 | CIN | 2022 | 49 | 37 | 75.5 | 12 |
| 8 | CLE | 2022 | 38 | 30 | 79.0 | 8 |
| 9 | DAL | 2022 | 52 | 40 | 76.9 | 12 |
| 10 | DEN | 2022 | 29 | 20 | 69.0 | 9 |
| 11 | DET | 2022 | 52 | 44 | 84.6 | 8 |
| 12 | GB | 2022 | 39 | 26 | 66.7 | 13 |
| 13 | HOU | 2022 | 27 | 22 | 81.5 | 5 |
| 14 | IND | 2022 | 25 | 22 | 88.0 | 3 |
| 15 | JAX | 2022 | 41 | 31 | 75.6 | 10 |
| 16 | KC | 2022 | 59 | 50 | 84.8 | 9 |
| 17 | LAC | 2022 | 41 | 33 | 80.5 | 8 |
| 18 | LAR | 2022 | 31 | 25 | 80.7 | 6 |
| 19 | LV | 2022 | 40 | 22 | 55.0 | 18 |
| 20 | MIA | 2022 | 42 | 30 | 71.4 | 12 |
| 21 | MIN | 2022 | 48 | 40 | 83.3 | 8 |
| 22 | NO | 2022 | 36 | 25 | 69.4 | 11 |
| 23 | NE | 2022 | 31 | 19 | 61.3 | 12 |
| 24 | NYG | 2022 | 38 | 31 | 81.6 | 7 |
| 25 | NYJ | 2022 | 28 | 20 | 71.4 | 8 |
| 26 | PHI | 2022 | 57 | 40 | 70.2 | 17 |
| 27 | PIT | 2022 | 28 | 26 | 92.9 | 2 |
| 28 | SEA | 2022 | 42 | 25 | 59.5 | 17 |
| 29 | SF | 2022 | 50 | 34 | 68.0 | 16 |
| 30 | TB | 2022 | 31 | 26 | 83.9 | 5 |
| 31 | TEN | 2022 | 32 | 26 | 81.3 | 6 |
| 32 | WAS | 2022 | 33 | 24 | 72.7 | 9 |
Seattle did not run a lot of plays near the end zone in part because they were scoring so much from long range. Only the Raiders had more touchdowns and a higher rate of offensive touchdowns scored from outside of the red zone than the Seahawks last season.
The Patriots were the only other team to join the Seahawks and Raiders in having over one-third of their touchdowns come from outside of the red zone.
91.3% of the teams that relied on scoring from long range to that degree in the 2000s came back and scored a higher rate of their touchdowns from inside of the red zone. 68% of those teams also scored more red zone touchdowns overall, with an average increase of 8.9 more red zone touchdowns.
It should be downright scary how good the Eagles were in both departments last season. Not only did they reach the red zone and convert in that area of the field to a high degree, but they also were tied for second in the NFL with 17 touchdowns scored from outside of the red zone.
Outside of the Eagles, the Bills, Cowboys, Bengals, Dolphins, and Jaguars all had double-digit touchdowns from outside of the red zone but still had at least 70% of their touchdowns come from inside of the red zone.
Last season, we saw immediately the way that the Chiefs were going to have to manufacture more touchdowns on sustained drives after trading Tyreek Hill. And they did so successfully.
84.8% of the Kansas City touchdowns came from inside of the red zone, their highest rate of the 2000s. Mahomes averaged 12.2 yards per touchdown pass, the shortest of his career.
We also immediately saw the impact that Hill had going to Miami paired with Mike McDaniel opening the offense up. Miami went from just three touchdowns from outside of the red zone in 2021 (with 90.9% in the red zone) to scoring 12 times from outside of the red zone last year, with Hill himself accounting for six of those scores.
No team needed the red zone to score last season more than the Steelers.
Last season, the Steelers scored just two touchdowns from outside of the red zone, the fewest in the NFL. Only two teams since 2000 have scored fewer in a season with two other teams also scoring just two.
Pittsburgh averaged 6.8 yards on their touchdowns in 2022. No team over the past 30 years has averaged fewer yards on touchdown plays.
The Falcons are in some rare air as well.
Atlanta had just four touchdowns from outside of the red zone (30th in the league) after just two in 2021 (32nd). With that, they became just the fifth team in the 2000s to have back-to-back seasons with fewer than five touchdowns from outside of the red zone. The only team to do that three years in a row in the 2000s has been the 2003-2005 Bears.
