Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Dolphins Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Dolphins are predicted to win 9.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Dolphins Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Dolphins were 8-1 in Tua Tagovailoa’s first nine starts of the season with the only loss the game he left due to a concussion.
With Tua under center, the offense averaged 0.18 EPA per dropback and a 44.9% success rate compared to -0.17 EPA per dropback and a 37% success rate when the backups played.
Tua averaged 0.32 EPA per dropback and 9.0 yards/attempt in the first 12 weeks and had a 19 to 3 TD-to-INT ratio.
Mike McDaniel had this offense as one of the best in the league when Tua was on the field in the first twelve weeks.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The defense lost Jalen Ramsey for a chunk of the season, but they should still improve with Vic Fangio as the defensive coordinator.
The Ramsey injury is a blow, but a defense that struggled with injuries last year, finishing with the sixth-most adjusted games lost, is also likely to benefit from improved injury luck.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
The Dolphins are likely to have significant improvement in turnovers and field goal luck.
They finished the season with a -7 turnover differential and finished with -2.0 net fumble recoveries above expectation.
Improvement in field goal luck is also expected as the Dolphins finished with -2.0 net field goals over expectation.
» Bet the Dolphins Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Dolphins Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
Tyreek Hill is in the news and could potentially face a suspension given his history. The offense revolves around Hill and Jaylen Waddle. If Hill was to miss time, the offense is likely to take a step backward.
In 2023, the offense struggled when one of Hill or Waddle was not on the field, averaging -0.21 EPA per dropback on the 178 dropbacks in which one of the receivers was not on the field.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
Similar to last year, the Dolphins are projected to have the third-most difficult schedule in 2023.
The Dolphins have the second-most difficult road schedule and open the season with three of their first four games on the road including back-to-back road games to start the season.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
The offensive line was a problem last season, ranking 24th in ESPN’s pass block win rate, and the quarterback needed to get rid of the ball quickly, averaging 2.66 seconds to throw.
Projected starting guard Liam Eichenberg allowed 26 pressures. The line has three solid starters but lacks depth if injuries occur.
» Bet the Dolphins Win Total Under
Miami Dolphins Strength of Schedule:
The Dolphins are ranked #30 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the third-toughest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
