With 2023 NFL training camps on the horizon, we’re starting to get an idea of how 2023 NFL draft classes will impact each roster this season.
Let's look at the Green Bay Packers, breaking down the most likely instant-impact rookies from each class, while also providing some insight into why certain early picks may not see the field.
These insights are an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 500+ page book “2023 Football Preview” which is now available for download.
In the book, you can find a comprehensive breakdown of the rookie class for all 32 NFL teams by draft guru Ryan McCrystal.
Who are the Green Bay Packers rookies?
- Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa | Round 1, Pick 13
- Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State | Round 2, Pick 42
- Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State | Round 2, Pick 50
- Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State | Round 3, Pick 78
- Colby Wooden, LB, Auburn | Round 4, Pick 116
- Sean Clifford, QB, Penn State | Round 5, Pick 149
- Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Virginia |Round 5, Pick 159
- Karl Brooks, LB, Bowling Green | Round 6, Pick 179
- Anders Carlson, K, Auburn | Round 6, Pick 207
- Carrington Valentine, CB, Kentucky | Round 7, Pick 232
- Lew Nichols III, RB, Central Michigan | Round 7, Pick 235
- Anthony Johnson Jr, S, Iowa State | Round 7, Pick 242
- Grant DuBose, WR, Charlotte | Round 7, Pick 256
Green Bay Packers Draft Class Grade:
The Packers received a B+ rookie class draft grade from PFF, a B+ from ESPN, and a B from NFL Network.
Which Packers Rookies Will Make An Impact?
Lukas Van Ness (first round) is the prototypical Packers edge rusher, fitting the same physical profile as Preston Smith and Rashan Gary. Unfortunately for Van Ness, defensive coordinator Joe Barry likely will not value his versatility.
Van Ness is athletic enough to stay on the edge, but Iowa took advantage of his versatility. He ranked third in the Big Ten in pressure rate while lined up on the interior (10.9%) and third on the edge (15.2%). Last year in Green Bay, however, Smith had exactly one snap from the interior, while Gary had none.
Under Brian Gutekunst, the Packers have valued blocking from their tight ends, so the selection of Luke Musgrave (second round) came as no surprise. Musgrave is a prototypical in-line tight end and will immediately compete for the starting job.
If Musgrave wins the job, it will be on the strength of his blocking. Based on route-adjusted data, Musgrave’s catch rate was 2.5% below expected over the last two seasons, and his yards after catch was 2.6% below expected.
Tucker Kraft (third round) will also be in that competition. Kraft looks like a more dynamic athlete than Musgrave and may offer more upside as a pass catcher, but his developing blocking skills may hinder his ability to immediately get on the field in Green Bay.
Green Bay reached for Jayden Reed (second round) to add depth to the receiving corps. Reed lacks ideal size at 5-foot-11, 187 pounds and is, at best, an average athlete for the position.
Reed’s ordinary athletic traits show up in his poor after-catch production. Over the past two seasons, Reed generated 0.2% fewer yards after the catch than expected based on route-adjusted data, the only receiver selected in the first two rounds with a negative number in that metric.
Colby Wooden (fourth round) and Karl Books (sixth round) both saw significant action on the edge in college but will likely play on the interior in Green Bay. Wooden saw 58% of his snaps on the interior in 2022 while Brooks was inside on just 36% of his snaps.
The selection of Sean Clifford (fifth round) was bizarre. Based on route-adjusted metrics, Clifford’s career on-target rate was 4.0% below expected. Only nine Power Five quarterbacks over the last four seasons (minimum 500 pass attempts) were worse.
Dontayvion Wicks (fifth round) is a 6-foot-1 deep threat 一 27% of his targets were at least 15 yards downfield last year 一 and he is capable of using his size to his advantage.
Wicks will be joined by Grant DuBose (seventh round), a developmental receiver. At 6-foot-2 and 201 pounds, he fits the mold of the bigger receivers Gutekunst tends to draft.
Anders Carlson (sixth round) will be expected to win the starting job at kicker, but he is coming off a surprisingly ordinary career for a kicker to hear his name called in the draft. Trusting a kicker with an ordinary leg and mediocre production in SEC country seems like an odd choice for a team that plays in Wisconsin.
Carrington Valentine (seventh round) is a young prospect who entered the draft after his true junior year. He has the length and speed to play as an outside corner. His extensive experience on special teams will help him earn a roster spot.
Lew Nichols (seventh round) will compete for a job in the backfield behind Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Despite his size (5-foot-10, 220 pounds), Nichols consistently goes down on first contact.
Anthony Johnson (seventh round) was a four year starter at Iowa State playing throughout the secondary. He closed out his career in the strong safety role but has experience as an outside corner as well.
As expected, Gutekunst drafted to his board with little regard for value. Due to a lack of talent on the roster, multiple rookies have a path to playing time, but Gutekunst’s tendency to value a high floor over upside makes it difficult to envision this class producing any impact players outside of Van Ness.
