As we continue to lay the foundation for the fantasy football landscape for 2023 we are following up our look at league and team performance in the red zone last season, and spilling that over into individual player analysis.
In that top-down team post, we covered that the crux of touchdowns scored in the NFL come from inside of the red zone and that not all red zone touches are created equal.
Just to reiterate some notes from that article that pertain to running backs:
- 86.7% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside of the red zone.
- 74.4% of all rushing touchdowns scored overall come from inside of the 10-yard line.
- 57.8% of all rushing touchdowns overall come from inside the five-yard line.
- 43.8% of all rushing touchdowns overall come from the 1-2 yard lines.
We inherently know that a rushing attempt from the one-yard line is far more valuable than a carry from the 19-yard line, but they are often lumped together in analysis. A carry from the one-yard line is worth six times as much for fantasy production compared to an attempt from the 19.
With that, the next step is then diving into the red zone production versus an expectation for fantasy skill players based on their actual opportunities and weighing in where those opportunities came from inside of the red zone.
We have already covered the quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends.
Today, we are diving into the running backs.
2022 RB Red Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation:
| wdt_ID | Running Back | RZ FF PTS | EXPECTED PTS | DIFFERENCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cordarrelle Patterson | 62.6 | 39.1 | 23.5 |
| 2 | Miles Sanders | 72.9 | 51.2 | 21.8 |
| 3 | Nick Chubb | 70.3 | 49.7 | 20.6 |
| 4 | Austin Ekeler | 131.0 | 110.4 | 20.6 |
| 5 | Ezekiel Elliott | 83.0 | 62.5 | 20.5 |
| 6 | Derrick Henry | 87.6 | 67.7 | 20.0 |
| 7 | Alexander Mattison | 48.9 | 29.1 | 19.8 |
| 8 | James Conner | 54.8 | 37.1 | 17.7 |
| 9 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 47.0 | 31.0 | 16.0 |
| 10 | David Montgomery | 52.0 | 36.7 | 15.3 |
| 11 | Samaje Perine | 41.8 | 27.6 | 14.2 |
| 12 | Najee Harris | 78.9 | 67.5 | 11.4 |
| 13 | Tony Pollard | 58.4 | 47.5 | 10.9 |
| 14 | Cam Akers | 52.3 | 42.2 | 10.1 |
| 15 | Christian McCaffrey | 82.4 | 72.7 | 9.7 |
| 16 | D'Andre Swift | 63.5 | 54.6 | 8.9 |
| 17 | Kenneth Walker III | 58.5 | 51.4 | 7.1 |
| 18 | Aaron Jones | 51.5 | 44.5 | 7.0 |
| 19 | Josh Jacobs | 67.7 | 61.4 | 6.3 |
| 20 | Chuba Hubbard | 17.4 | 12.3 | 5.1 |
| 21 | Khalil Herbert | 31.8 | 26.8 | 5.1 |
| 22 | Gus Edwards | 19.7 | 14.8 | 4.9 |
| 23 | Isiah Pacheco | 40.5 | 36.5 | 4.0 |
| 24 | Saquon Barkley | 58.0 | 54.2 | 3.8 |
| 25 | Pierre Strong | 6.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
Expected Red Zone Points Leaders:
You do not lead the NFL in touchdowns scored in back-to-back seasons without maxing out efficiency on your scoring opportunities.
For the second consecutive season, Austin Ekeler led the position in points scored and expected points in the red zone.
Ekeler amassed 70 total red zone touches while the next closest running back had 59.
31 of those came from inside of the 10-yard line, which also led the league.
The interesting part is that 11 came from inside of the five-yard line, which was tied for ninth at the position, but he cashed in on the short-scoring chances he did have.
Ekeler had seven total targets or carries from the one-yard line. All seven were touchdowns.
He converted 6-of-8 carries inside of the five-yard line for touchdowns after converting 7-of-12 a year ago, converting 65% of his carries in that area of the field for scores the past two years compared to a 45.3% rate for the rest of the league.
Before 2021, Ekeler himself had converted just 4-of-14 carries inside of the five for touchdowns.
On top of running hot on his carries near the end zone, Ekeler also converted all three of his targets inside of the five for touchdowns last season.
For his career, Ekeler now has 10 targets inside of the five. Seven have resulted in touchdowns. The rest of the running back position over that span has converted 48.5% of their targets in that area of the field for touchdowns.
At the end of the season, Ekeler converted 81.8% of his opportunities inside of the five for touchdowns, the highest rate in the league for a player with double-digit chances.
I came into this exercise anticipating Jamaal Williams to be at the top of the pile in expected points, but he was right behind Ekeler, although he was not an outlier in outproducing his actual opportunities.
Williams led the NFL with 42 carries and 15 touchdowns inside of the 10-yard line. The next closet player had 28 carries inside of the 10.
Williams led the NFL with 16 rushes from the one-yard line, double that of the next closest player.
He converted 10 of them for scores and totaled 60.8 fantasy points just from the one-yard line, the most scored from a yard out by any player since LeGarrette Blount in 2016.
His 52.9 expected rushing points scored from the one-yard line led the NFL. The next closest player was Jalen Hurts at 26.5.
Williams also led the league with another 12 carries from the 2-4 yard lines, converting another four of those for touchdowns.
Totaling it all up, the 28 carries that Williams had inside of the five-yard line were the most in a season by a player in the 2000s. His 14 rushing scores inside of the five were the most in a season from that area since Larry Johnson in 2006.
We should not be expecting Williams to run back the sheer volume of scoring opportunities that he had a year ago with the Saints, but his addition paired with the presence of Taysom Hill are significant factors in why it is hard to fully dive in on Alvin Kamara resurrecting his early-career touchdown totals.
Overachievers:
Seeing Cordarrelle Patterson outkick his expected point total by the widest margin may be a surprise.
Patterson had just five carries inside of the five (and just two from the 1-2 yard lines) but he turned four of them into touchdowns. The rest of the league was at 45.5 % in 2022 in turning those carries into scores.
With the addition of Bijan Robinson paired with the late-season surge from Tyler Allgeier, Patterson will be hard-pressed to accrue a high number of touches near the end zone in 2023.
Regression can move swiftly in the NFL, and Miles Sanders immediately went from the outhouse in 2021 to the penthouse in 2022.
Sanders was dead last in points below expectations in this department in 2021 and was second in points scored above expectations a year ago.
After failing to convert any of his 10 carries inside of the 10 and any of his five carries inside of the five-yard line for touchdowns in 2021, Sanders converted 7-of-22 carries inside of the 10 and 5-of-11 carries inside of the five-yard line for touchdowns a year ago.
The Eagles ran 35 more plays inside of the 10 and 24 more plays inside of the five than Carolina did last season, so Sanders will need Bryce Young to get out of the gates hot to run into similar scoring opportunities this upcoming season.
Both Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry are excellent in this area and score a lot of short rushing scores, but both backs did run hotter last season than their career production near the paint.
Chubb converted 50% (6-of-12) of his carries inside of the five for touchdowns after a career rate of 37.2% entering last season. He now has a rushing quarterback to potentially contend with scoring opportunities.
It was a small and poor sample of production from Deshaun Watson, but Chubb had just one rushing attempt inside of the five and three carries inside of the 10-yard line over the six games that Watson played.
We are going to need Watson to play much better in 2023 to create even more short-scoring opportunities to combat Watson’s rushing ability himself and potential regression in converting those carries for Chubb.
Henry converted 66.7% (10-of-15) of those carries for touchdowns after a 53.4% career rate before last season. Henry’s 10 rushing scores inside of the five were a career-high.
One of the more interesting elements within the table is the discrepancy between Alexander Mattison and Dalvin Cook.
I would assume the results both players had near the end zone played a part in the decision-making in Minnesota this offseason to move forward with Mattison as the primary back and outright release Cook.
Mattison was 22nd in red zone points scored while checking in 41st in expected points.
He converted 33.3% (6-of-18) of his red zone opportunities for touchdowns after an 8.4% rate (7-of-83) entering last season.
Mattison converted 4-of-10 carries inside of the 10 and 2-of-3 carries inside of the five for touchdowns compared to Cook converting 6-of-22 carries inside of the 10 and 5-of-15 carries inside of the five. Cook converted just 2-of-6 carries for scores from the one-yard line.
Mattison had converted 5-of-34 carries inside of the 10 and 3-of-10 inside of the five-yard line for scores before last season.
This continued a downward trend for Cook near the end zone.
Dalvin Cook Red Zone Points vs. Expectations:
| Year | RZ Points | Expected | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 57.6 | 80.4 | -22.8 |
| 2021 | 42.6 | 57.9 | -15.3 |
| 2020 | 103.8 | 92.3 | 11.5 |
| 2019 | 85.7 | 65.2 | 20.5 |
| 2018 | 18.8 | 21.3 | -2.5 |
Over the past two seasons, Cook has converted just 8-of-27 (29.6%) of his carries inside of the five-yard line for scores after having a rate of 43.6% (17-of-39) inside of the five prior.
Underachievers:
Joe Mixon was third among all running backs in expected points in the red zone but was seventh in actual points scored.
Mixon was second in the league in rushing attempts inside of the 10-yard line (28) but converted just six (21.4%) for touchdowns. Before last season, Mixon had converted 28.1% (25-of-89).
Inside of the five-yard line, Mixon converted 5-of-14 (35.7%) compared to the league average of 45.5%.
This has been a problem area for Mixon before. For his career, he has converted 34.8% (23-of-66) of those carries for touchdowns with just two of his six seasons above the league rate.
That said, while the Bengals continue to provide so many scoring opportunities, we have to account for Mixon getting a ton of chances. Only three players have more carries inside of the five-yard line the past two seasons than Mixon while only four have more carries from the one-yard line.
It will be interesting to see how Jacksonville handles Travis Etienne’s role this season.
On one hand, Etienne should be a bet to have better efficiency near the end zone.
On the other, Etienne only has a one-year sample and his performance in 2022 may have compromised receiving those touches in 2023.
Etienne had just four touchdowns on 22 carries inside of the 10 (18.2%), 2-of-10 (20%) inside of the five-yard line, and 2-of-5 (40%) from the one-yard line.
League conversion rates on those carries were 30.4%, 45.5%, and 61.0%.
Tank Bigsby was strong in short-yardage situations exiting Auburn. Bigsby converted 78.3% of his short-yardage carries into first downs or touchdowns in 2022, which ranked seventh in this draft class.
He did not underachieve in the red zone overall because he scored more touchdowns from mid-range, but Kenneth Walker is in a similar position.
Walker converted just 1-of-9 carries inside of the five-yard line for a touchdown as a rookie and 1-of-5 from the 1-2 yard lines.
With a larger sample, we surely will see Walker progress in this department with more opportunities. That could make him a value now that his ADP has sunk after the draft.
But the one-year sample and investment in Zach Charbonnet are unknown factors that could impact his 2023 usage in that area of the field.
As a runner, 39.5% of Charbonnet’s carries in 2022 resulted in a first down or touchdown, which was the highest rate for any back in the 2022 draft class. He failed to gain yardage on just 9.7% of his carries, the lowest rate in this class. 22.6% of his attempts were in short-yardage situations (second), which he converted 79.5% of the time into first downs or scores (fourth).
We have a couple more backs here that underachieved that require high draft capital this offseason.
Rhamondre Stevenson converted just 66.0% of his expected points and had the third-lowest output below expectations in the red zone last season.
Stevenson had just four red zone touchdowns on 37 opportunities.
After converting 5-of-11 carries inside of the 10-yard line for scores as a rookie, Stevenson cashed in 3-of-19 carries in that area of the field in 2022.
Not much went right for Jonathan Taylor last season and red zone struggles were part of his 99 problems.
Taylor scored three times on 34 red zone opportunities (8.8%) a year after scoring a touchdown on 17.7% (9-of-51) and 16.1% (14-of-87) of his red zone touches over his first two seasons in the league.
The only running back with a worse red zone scoring rate with as many opportunities as Taylor had in 2022 was Tyler Allgeier (3-of-38).
Taylor converted just 20% (3-of-15) carries inside of the 10-yard line for scores after rates of 37.5% (9-of-24) and 30.8% (12-of-39) his first two seasons.
Inside of the five-yard line, he converted just 3-of-8 (37.5%) after rates of 50% (6-of-12) and 42.3% (11-of-26) before last season.
Quick Hits:
- James Cook had just one touchdown on 17 red zone opportunities. The only back with a lower rate with more than 10 touches was Caleb Huntley (1-of-19).
- It was an abbreviated sample for Javonte Williams in 2022, but he was tied with Zack Moss for the most opportunities inside of the 10-yard line without a score (seven).
- Derrick Henry (10-of-20), Latavius Murray (5-of-10), and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (5-of-10) were the only backs with double-digit touches to convert 50% of their touches into touchdowns inside of the 10-yard line.
- Ezekiel Elliott was third in the NFL in fantasy points scored from the one-yard line (42.6) behind Austin Ekeler (45.7) and Jamaal Williams (60.8).
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