As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, Alexander Mattison, and every other notable Viking, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Kirk Cousins led qualifying quarterbacks in fourth-quarter fantasy points per game. He was the QB23 per game in the first three quarters.
- From Week 9 on – when he joined the Vikings – T.J. Hockenson was second among all tight ends in targets and the TE4 in half-PPR fantasy points per game.
- Alexander Mattison has averaged 3.7 yards per carry and 2.78 yards per carry after contact over the last two seasons. Those numbers would have ranked 39th and 27th out of 42 qualifying running backs last year.
2022 Vikings Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 424 (7th)
- Total Offense: 6,145 (7th)
- Plays: 1,123 (6th)
- Offensive TDs: 48 (8th)
- Points Per Drive: 2.04 (12th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 0.4 (17th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 29.47 seconds (5th)
2023 Vikings Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Kevin O’Connell
- Offensive Coordinator: Wes Phillips
The Vikings will have a new defensive coordinator, but OC Wes Phillips spurned an interview request from the Chargers to stay on staff.
He and Kevin O’Connell will be back for their second season running the offense.
A sharp and expected departure from the offense under previous coach Mike Zimmer, the Vikings were ninth in neutral pass rate and sixth with an overall pass rate 2.5 percent over expected.
The results, though, were just average.
While they finished top 10 in points and total offense because of how many plays they ran, the Vikings were more middle of the pack in efficiency. Their running game was even worse, ranking 29th in EPA per rush.
That efficiency mediocrity is more concerning given the offense’s outlier performance in the fourth quarter last season.
As Rich Hribar highlighted in his yardage to touchdowns article:
“Minnesota averaged 146.5 yards per offensive touchdown in the first three quarters of games of last season and just 92.3 yards per touchdown in the fourth quarter, in which they led the NFL with 19 touchdowns.”
Those 19 scores represented 40% of their offensive touchdowns, and the 92.3 yards per touchdown rate would have easily ranked first last season – the Eagles and Cowboys tied for first at 116 yards per TD.
While the Vikings were still a relatively pass-heavy offense in neutral situations, those fourth quarters also spiked their passing volume.
Replacing the 2022 version of Adam Thielen with Jordan Addison could help that efficiency, but there are some concerning regression flags for this offense.
2022 Vikings Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 729 (4th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 56.0% (9th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: 2.5% (6th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 23.3% (23rd)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 57% (21st)
2023 Vikings Passing Game Preview:
The Vikings will face the 15th-easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Kirk Cousins, Nick Mullens
- WR: Justin Jefferson, Jalen Reagor
- WR: Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor
- WR: K.J. Osborn, Brandon Powell
- TE: T.J. Hockenson, Josh Oliver
Find a quarterback like 2022 fourth-quarter Kirk Cousins.
Cousins was fifth in EPA per dropback in the fourth quarter last season and tied for the league lead with 13 passing scores in the final quarter.
That number represents 45% of his total passing touchdowns, and nearly 30% of his total passing yards came in the fourth quarter.
Cousins led the league in fourth-quarter fantasy points. His 111.4 fourth-quarter fantasy points represented 38% of his total.
Cousins led qualifying quarterbacks in fourth-quarter fantasy points per game. He was the QB23 per game in the first three quarters.
Assuming the Vikings see a more normal season of game script, Cousins will have some regression in his fourth-quarter numbers.
Even with those last season, he was the QB12 in fantasy points per game among qualifying quarterbacks, and he has never finished above that during his time in Minnesota.
Even with a full season of T.J. Hockenson and a better situation at the No. 2 receiver slot, it is tough to see the upside for more this year.
Like Cousins, Justin Jefferson also led the wide receivers in fourth-quarter fantasy points.
Unlike Cousins, he was still the No. 3 fantasy receiver in the other three quarters.
Jefferson has averaged 16.2 half-PPR points per game throughout his career, and his per-game average has increased every season.
That 16.2 mark would have been the WR7 last season, and that is his CAREER AVERAGE.
Even with Hockenson on the team over the final 10 weeks, Jefferson still commanded a 28.6% target share and was targeted on 27.6% of his routes.
K.J. Osborn and Adam Thielen combined for a 29.3% target share over that span, so there is room for Jordan Addison to see targets without affecting Jefferson’s volume.
Arguably the best receiver in the league, Jefferson is the safest fantasy bet on the board.
After joining the team, T.J. Hockenson saw 21.8% of the targets and was targeted on 23.8% of his routes.
From Week 9 on – when he joined the Vikings – Hockenson was second among all tight ends in targets and the TE4 in half-PPR fantasy points per game.
Unlike Jefferson, there is some concern about what happens to Hockenson’s target share if Addison comes out of the gate strong, and Hockenson relied more on that volume than efficiency (1.43 yards per route run and 8.7 yards per reception) after joining the team.
That said, those efficiency numbers were his worst since his rookie season, so it is possible he bumps those up after getting in a full offseason with the team.
There are some concerns here, but Hockenson is fairly being drafted as the TE3 thanks to his potential target volume.
The battle for the No. 2 receiver slot could be interesting. As mentioned above, Osborn and Thielen combined for a 29.3% target share after Hockenson joined the team, so there is room in this offense for a third option in the passing game.
Jordan Addison is the favorite for that role after the Vikings selected him No. 23 overall in the draft.
Addison won the Biletnikoff Award while playing with Kenny Pickett at Pitt in 2021, and he was still one of the most efficient receivers in the league after transferring to USC last season.
He was sixth in his draft class in yards per route run in 2022 (2.78) and eighth against man coverage (3.28).
He also showed the versatility to play both outside and in the slot at USC.
There are some athletic concerns after he posted a relative athletic score of 5.94 out of 10 at the Combine thanks in large part to his 5-foot-11, 171-pound frame.
Addison produced in multiple major conferences, however, and has a path to a good target share.
K.J. Osborn is the other candidate for the No. 2 spot.
He finished last season strong, catching 32-of-41 targets for 408 yards and four touchdowns over his final six games. He was targeted on 18.5% of his routes over that span.
Osborn comes off the board 74 picks after Addison over at Underdog, a gap that reflects too much certainty about Addison’s place on the depth chart even if the most likely outcome is Addison as the No. 2.
Jalen Nailor also deserves a short mention for those in deeper leagues.
The sophomore flashed with seven catches for 151 yards and a score over the final two games of last season, and he has drawn positive reviews early in camp.
2022 Vikings Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 389 (23rd)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.5 (23rd)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.24 (24th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 71% (16th)
2023 Vikings Running Game Preview:
The Vikings will face the easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Alexander Mattison, Ty Chandler, DeWayne McBride
- OL: Christian Darrisaw, Ezra Cleveland, Garrett Bradbury, Ed Ingram, Brian O’Neill
Given their lack of success on the ground last year, it is not a surprise the Vikings moved on from Dalvin Cook this offseason.
It is a bit of a surprise their only offseason moves to address the position were re-signing Alexander Mattison and drafting DeWayne McBride in the seventh round.
Mattison has averaged 3.7 yards per carry and 2.78 yards per carry after contact over the last two seasons.
Those numbers would have ranked 39th and 27th out of 42 qualifying running backs last year.
That said, Mattison has produced fantasy points when given the opportunity.
He has averaged 18.1 half-PPR points in his six career starts.
He has eight career games with at least 15 touches. He has averaged 13.8 half-PPR points in those games.
With the lack of established options behind him, it is possible he gets that kind of workload again and pays off his late RB2 draft cost.
However, fantasy graveyards are littered with teams that drafted an inefficient back just because of the situation.
It is also not a given Mattison gets those kinds of workloads.
First, there are several veteran running backs available as free agents, and there is a very interesting running back that just became available in the trade market (Jonathan Taylor).
Second, both DeWayne McBride and Ty Chandler have interesting profiles and could force the issue with a strong training camp or start to the season.
There are certainly avenues for Mattison to be a quality draft pick including him just playing better as the full-time starter, but he feels too much like so many cautionary fantasy tales of the past.
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