The start of the 2023 NFL season is fast approaching and training camps are in full swing.
Below, we break down the current and opening NFL Team win totals, odds, biggest movers and best bets.
2023 NFL Team Win Totals & Odds
| Team | Current Win Total | Over Vig | Under Vig | Opening Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 10.5 | -140 | 115 | 11.5 |
| Bears | 7.5 | -130 | 110 | 7.5 |
| Bengals | 11 | -110 | -115 | 11.5 |
| Bills | 10.5 | -140 | 115 | 10.5 |
| Broncos | 8.5 | -105 | -115 | 8.5 |
| Browns | 9.5 | 110 | -130 | 9.5 |
| Buccaneers | 6.5 | 120 | -145 | 6.5 |
| Cardinals | 4.5 | 100 | -120 | 5.5 |
| Chargers | 9.5 | -125 | 105 | 9.5 |
| Chiefs | 11.5 | -130 | 110 | 11.5 |
| Colts | 6.5 | -120 | 100 | 6.5 |
| Commanders | 6.5 | -105 | -115 | 7.5 |
| Cowboys | 10.5 | 110 | -140 | 9.5 |
| Dolphins | 9.5 | -110 | -110 | 9.5 |
| Eagles | 11.5 | 110 | -130 | 10.5 |
| Falcons | 8.5 | -145 | 120 | 8.5 |
| Giants | 7.5 | -105 | -115 | 8.5 |
| Jaguars | 9.5 | -150 | 125 | 10.5 |
| Jets | 9.5 | -125 | 105 | 9.5 |
| Lions | 9.5 | -130 | 110 | 9.5 |
| Packers | 7.5 | -125 | 105 | 7.5 |
| Panthers | 7.5 | -110 | -110 | 7.5 |
| Patriots | 7 | -110 | -115 | 7.5 |
| Raiders | 6.5 | 110 | -130 | 7.5 |
| Rams | 6.5 | 100 | -120 | 7.5 |
| Ravens | 10.5 | -105 | -125 | 9.5 |
| Saints | 9.5 | 105 | -125 | 9.5 |
| Seahawks | 8.5 | -150 | 125 | 8.5 |
| Steelers | 9 | -110 | -115 | 8.5 |
| Texans | 6.5 | 110 | -135 | 5.5 |
| Titans | 7.5 | -125 | 105 | 7.5 |
| Vikings | 8.5 | -120 | 100 | 8.5 |
Biggest Team Movers in NFL Win Totals
Since opening, 11 teams have seen their win total move at least one game, which we have factored into NFL Strength of Schedule.
Teams Totals Win Total Movement:
- Las Vegas Raiders decreased by 1 win
- San Francisco 49ers decreased by 1 win
- Arizona Cardinals decreased by 1 win
- Washington Commanders decreased by 1 win
- New York Giants decreased by 1 win
- Jacksonville Jaguars decreased by 1 win
- Los Angeles Rams decreased by 1 win
- Dallas Cowboys increased by 1 win
- Philadelphia Eagles increased by 1 win
- Baltimore Ravens increased by 1 win
- Houston Texans increased by 1 win
Early Best Bets for NFL Win Totals
New England Patriots, Under 7 -110 BETMGM
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Patriots are projected to have the most difficult NFL schedule in 2023.
The increased difficulty is a potential problem as the Patriots' eight wins came in 2022 came against Zach Wilson twice, Mitch Trubisky, Jared Goff, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Ehlinger, Colt Mccoy, and the tandem of Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson.
The first four weeks of the schedule are against teams projected to finish the season with a winning record.
Bill Belichick-led defenses tend to dominate rookie or inexperienced quarterbacks, but as it currently stands, the only quarterbacks the Patriots are projected to play with fewer than 30 starts are Anthony Richardson, Kenny Pickett, and Sam Howell.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Patriots finished with a 4-4 record in one-score games. However, they had an unsustainable +9 turnover differential in those eight games.
Negative luck regression in terms of health is probable, especially on defense where they finished the season with the fourth-fewest adjusted games lost to injury.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
The offensive line finished last in ESPN’s run block win rate and 15th in pass block win rate in 2022.
The line was below average in 2022 and lost Isaiah Wynn and Marcus Cannon over the offseason.
The schedule of opposing pass rushes projects as the third-most difficult.
- Continued reading: Patriots Win Total Over/Under & Why You Should Bet It
Las Vegas Raiders Under 6.5 +110 BETMGM
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The AFC West schedule is brutal this season.
Even though the Raiders get the third-place schedule of opponents, they have the second-largest jump in year-over-year difficulty.
The Raiders are projected to face the second-most difficult schedule of opponents. Their schedule includes six divisional games and four games against the strong AFC East.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
Regression is likely in the luck department for the Raiders as their field goal and fumble luck from 2022 is likely unsustainable.
Daniel Carlson is among the league’s best kickers, but he made 3.97 field goals over expectation, which will be difficult to repeat.
Opponents missed 3.35 field goals over expectation, and the Raiders finished with the second-highest net field goal over expectation.
The Raiders also finished fourth in fumble luck, finishing the season with 3.5 fumble recoveries over expected.
- Continued reading: Raiders Win Total Over/Under & Why You Should Bet It
Win Totals for all 32 NFL teams & Why You Should Bet It:
Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team, which you can access for free below:
- 49ers Win Total Over/Under
- Bears Win Total Over/Under
- Bengals Win Total Over/Under
- Bills Draft Win Total Over/Under
- Broncos Win Total Over/Under
- Browns Win Total Over/Under
- Buccaneers Win Total Over/Under
- Cardinals Win Total Over/Under
- Chargers Win Total Over/Under
- Chiefs Win Total Over/Under
- Colts Win Total Over/Under
- Commanders Win Total Over/Under
- Cowboys Win Total Over/Under
- Dolphins Win Total Over/Under
- Eagles Win Total Over/Under
- Falcons Win Total Over/Under
- Giants Win Total Over/Under
- Jaguars Win Total Over/Under
- Jets Win Total Over/Under
- Lions Win Total Over/Under
- Packers Win Total Over/Under
- Panthers Win Total Over/Under
- Patriots Win Total Over/Under
- Raiders Win Total Over/Under
- Rams Win Total Over/Under
- Ravens Win Total Over/Under
- Saints Win Total Over/Under
- Seahawks Win Total Over/Under
- Steelers Win Total Over/Under
- Texans Win Total Over/Under
- Titans Win Total Over/Under
- Vikings Win Total Over/Under
Get the Best Odds Available
Whether betting for a hobby or trying to win money in the current betting landscape the most important fundamental is getting the best available odds.
Don't leave money on the table by betting at one sportsbook, sign-up and take advantage of the sign-up bonuses available from multiple sportsbooks. Take advantage of the offers available, but also know the rules of each offer.
When Should you bet on NFL Win Totals?
Win totals in the past were typically not available until after the NFL draft. Sportsbooks are now offering these bets earlier and you the bettor should understand why.
Sportsbooks are holding any money wagered on NFL team totals until early January 2023, which adds time value to the sportsbooks hold of 4.7%. Holding money for 10 months gives the sportsbooks to increase profits greater than the regular vig of a -110 wager.
In addition, sportsbooks are also getting early exposure to the market while limits are relatively low and adjusting lines, reducing exposure and risk when limits are raised.
When placing a future bet such as NFL Win Total months prior to the season starting an important concept to understand is the time value of money.
The concept that money is worth more now than the same sum will be worth in the future due to its earning potential in the interim. Sportsbooks are enticing bettors to place wagers earlier and earlier on future bets.
Wagering now comes at an opportunity cost as NFL Win Total Wagers will not be graded until January 2023 tying up funds wagered for nearly 9 months.
Also, as information regarding the schedule is missing, which includes travel and net rest, waiting for complete information will help reduce variance.
Other NFL Futures Bets to Consider
