Running Back Stats That Matter for Fantasy Football

As we are pushing into July and further downhill towards the 2023 fantasy season, we are going to extend our top-down approach that has already examined leaguewide production at each position group and team output.

The goal is that when it is time for your drafts, we have covered all corners of the fantasy earth from a team, player, position, and game theory stance to accurately calibrate our draft strategy.

This week, we are going to dive into the stats that matter the most for weekly fantasy output and which of those stats have the largest rollover year over year.

Highlights:

• In our sample of games since 2012, 58.7% of the backs to receive 20 or more touches in a game have posted an RB1 scoring week with those backs averaging 19.7 PPR points and 18.1 half-PPR points per game.
• In addition to how important touches are for impacting weekly scoring, touches per game are also the most stable metric for running backs year-over-year.
• Touchdowns have the weakest correlation year-over-year for counting stats outside of games played. Be cautious about overweighting touchdown performance from the season prior

Stats that Matter:

• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends

Running Back Fantasy Related Articles:

• Running Back Tiers
• Running Back Rankings
• Running Back Trends
• Red Zone Points vs Expectation: Running Backs

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Highest Correlation to Weekly Fantasy Points Scored For Running Backs:

This one is largely obvious, but nothing correlates to scoring (or not scoring) fantasy points in both PPR and half-PPR formats more than touching or not touching the football. You cannot accrue counting stats without first touching the ball.

Opportunity is the name of the game at running back, which is why gamers get downright giddy when there is a DFS slate with a backup running back elevated into a lead role during the week after pricing has already been posted.

Touchdowns can be fickle and tough to predict, but we are largely good at predicting where the football is going on a given week.

In our sample of games since 2012, 58.7% of the backs to receive 20 or more touches in a game have posted an RB1 scoring week with those backs averaging 19.7 PPR points and 18.1 half-PPR points per game.

When we went under the hood dissecting running back trends across the league, we highlighted that running back touches are at a premium now more than ever.

In 2022, there were 191 games in which a running back received 20 or more touches.

61.2% of those backs were top-12 scorers that given week, above the base rate of our entire sample.

14 of the 18 backs to outright lead their week in scoring handled 20 or more touches in that game. This is where targeting game scripts and backs that play three-down roles play a large role in weekly outcomes.

It is not a surprise to see total touchdowns follow up right behind touch counts as the next most important stat for backs.

Just falling into the end zone just once comes close to ensuring that back lands as a weekly RB2 or better. Over our sample, 79.9% of all running backs to score at least one touchdown were top-24 scorers that given week.

If you end up scoring multiple times, then you are in the money. Just once since 2012 did a back score multiple times and fail to land in the top-24 weekly scores, which was Darrell Young in Week 16 of 2014. Young had two carries for two yards and two touchdowns, catching one pass for three yards.

92.7% of all backs to score multiple times ended up as RB1 scorers.

It is hard to crack the top-12 in leagues that reward catches without a touchdown.

Just 14.4% of all top-12 weekly scorers over that span have gotten there without a touchdown in the game. There have been just seven times that the RB1 in overall weekly scoring did so without a touchdown since 2012, with five of those backs catching at least 10 passes in those games.

When splitting touchdowns up, the position scores on the ground at a three-to-one rate compared to through the air, placing more of an emphasis on getting those rushing touchdowns.

If you do happen to get a receiving score or have a back that has more acumen in reaching the end zone through the air, it is a huge swing since nearly every primary scoring system now rewards something for the actual catch itself to go along with the touchdown and inherent yardage.

Remember, a top-scoring running back provides the largest positional leverage you can put into your lineup, so top-scoring running backs matter. It is the baseline scorers at the position which has been exploitable on a weekly level.

Even in both PPR and half-PPR formats, the next two areas with a correlation of over 50% to weekly scoring come from the running game. While that on the surface is interesting in formats that reward receptions, remember that 82.3% of all running back touches in 2022 came via handoffs.

Receiving work for running backs is at close to an all-time low while running back targets per game have dropped from the previous season in five straight seasons. We will surely see a dead-cat bounce in that department at some point, but with the crux of all running back touches coming via handoffs, that is where the weight of scoring points is at the position.

There is not as large of a gap between the numbers of haves and have-nots for running backs that catch the football and do not compare to mobile quarterbacks and those passers who are not running, but it is along those same lines.

If you are one of the backs catching the football, you are inherently getting more production per touch since the catch itself is a reward while the yardage gained on an average reception is greater than the average handoff.

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Year-Over-Year Correlation Categories for Running Backs:

I took a look at 30 different running back metrics from the previous 10 seasons and tested how predictable they were for the next season.

Fantasy football more than any other fantasy sport loves to look back on the past as gospel for the future. While the strongest correlations for year-over-year stability clock in just under the 60% mark for running backs, you can already see a massive difference compared to what we covered with quarterbacks yesterday.

We covered that the top quarterback metrics in yearly rollover were a lie since so many passers still do not run, but there is a lot more stability here at the top of things.

While just above we highlighted how important touches are for impacting weekly scoring, touches per game are also the most stable metric for running backs year-over-year.

This is what makes it hard to outright avoid someone like Joe Mixon, who was not particularly good in 2022, but still projects to handle a lot of work.

With touches per game sitting at the top of the yearly rollover, it is not shocking to see rushing attempts (due to where running backs receive most of their touches) and yards from scrimmage sit highly as well.

If you are also looking at things, then you immediately have caught notice that per-game statistics are far and away better to use than anything related to the full-season outcomes.

Per-game metrics occupy the top-eight spots in yearly rollover and nine of the top 10 spots.

It is not until you reach rushing attempts that we get our first seasonal stat that carries tangible rollover.

The per-game output should always be your focus over bulk stats and can have added viability in taking advantage of any pricing discounts for players that register highly on those per-game metrics but missed time during the season.

We do not have a ton of backs being penalized for injuries this season, but this is the main case for Breece Hall still impacting fantasy seasons at a depressed cost, even if the Jets and Dalvin Cook do come to an agreement.

A few other players that have fractional seasons with outstanding per-game usage totals are Travis Etienne, Kenneth Walker, and Cam Akers.

James Conner is arguably the back that checks off the most boxes above as being undervalued.

While you should emphasize the rollover for per-game stats over seasonal output, you should also be careful not to be overweighting anything tied to efficiency from the prior season over the volume-based usage metrics, which are far more stable.

It is not often we get a player like Nick Chubb, so be cognizant that you could be overweighting efficiency, especially if it came on limited touch opportunity as is the case with Khalil Herbert or Jaylen Warren.

Putting this together paired with the evidence that volume matters the most at the position is the best case to make for backs that project to have high workloads but have efficiency concerns.

If you are making the bull case for Alexander Mattison or Rachaad White, here is your ammunition. This can even be a case to make for a deeper play such as Brian Robinson.

Yards per carry, yards per reception, and yards per touch are the bottom of the barrel here in yearly correlation to the following season while the touchdown rate per touch is dead last.

We all want efficient players on our roster, but be aware of overweighting efficient and inefficient players from the season prior. If you are a portfolio builder in the best ball leagues you have more opportunities to remedy this being a potential leak in our games.

Running backs are largely reliant on their offenses getting the ball to a specific area of the field to reach the end zone, contributing to the yearly variance that touchdowns have at the position.

Running backs on average score on 3.1% of their touches.

We understand regression and implement that much more than in years past. Gamers are obviously not stocking the touchdown output from players such as Jerick McKinnon (who scored on 7.8% of his touches in 2022) or Jamaal Williams (6.2%), but what if there is more volatility for a back such as Austin Ekeler (5.8%) this season?

Ekeler at least has a multi-year run operating above baseline output, but so much of his fantasy scoring comes via touchdowns over actual touches that there is potential that if we do run cold in the touchdown department that the floor is fragile.

Takeaways:

• The name of the game is opportunity. Follow the touches to find fantasy points.
• Touchdowns are the most important stat for running backs outside of touches. Unfortunately, touchdowns have the weakest correlation year-over-year for counting stats outside of games played. Be cautious about overweighting touchdown performance from the season prior
• Prioritize touches and opportunities over prior efficiency, especially within tiers.
• Rushing statistics are more stable than receiving ones for backs due to the crux of touches coming from the running game but do not discount the weekly viability for the backs that do catch the football.
• Focus on per-game output over bulk stats from the season prior.

This is a FREE PREVIEW of the Sharp Fantasy Football Draft Kit, one of the best resources to get you prepared for the 2023 fantasy football season.

Click here to get the Draft Kit for just $1!