Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Cowboys Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Cowboys are predicted to win 10 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Cowboys Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The Cowboys' defense ranked fourth in both EPA per dropback and EPA per rush. However, one position opponents attacked was the cornerback spot opposite Trevon Diggs.
The Cowboys significantly upgraded by adding veteran Stephon Gilmore.
The Cowboys also addressed the significant hole wide receiver behind CeeDee Lamb with veteran Brandin Cooks.
The roster is among the strongest in the NFC to start the season.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The Cowboys went 4-1 with Cooper Rush as the starting quarterback including wins over the Bengals and Giants.
This is even more impressive considering the offense averaged -0.03 EPA per play compared to 0.05 EPA per play with Dak Prescott.
The strength of the defense decreases the volatility of injuries on the offensive side of the ball.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
The Cowboys finished near the top of turnover differential for the second consecutive season, but there are reasons to believe that the Cowboys could be better in 2023.
The defense has recorded 67 turnovers in two seasons since hiring Dan Quinn and drafting Micah Parsons, 22 more than the league average.
The defense over that time has created a league-high 521 pressures while blitzing at the 12th-highest rate.
It’s likely the defense remains near the top of turnovers forced, and Prescott should improve on his 3.8% interception rate, easily his career worst.
» Bet the Cowboys Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Cowboys Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
As the roster stands, the depth at the skill positions on offense is concerning. Injuries to either the running back or top wide receivers will leave unproven options to fill in as starters.
The tight end room is also inexperienced with the departure of Dalton Schultz. The Cowboys will rely on a trio of tight ends that are entering either their sophomore or rookie seasons.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Cowboys have the sixth-largest jump in schedule difficulty from 2021.
Compared to last season, the AFC opponents are much tougher with games against the AFC East instead of the AFC South, and the new 17th opponent is a matchup against the Chargers.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Cowboys finished near the top in a couple of luck-related categories.
The loss of Kellen Moore could be significant in the red zone, where Dallas was the best in the league.
The offense scored a touchdown on 71.4% of red zone trips, and the defense was fifth best allowing a touchdown on 50% of red zone possessions. The 21.4% red zone differential was the largest in the league and will regress in 2023.
The Cowboys recovered 4.8 fumbles over expectation, the second most in the league.
» Bet the Cowboys Win Total Under
Dallas Cowboys Strength of Schedule:
The Cowboys are ranked #18 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the 15th-toughest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
