Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Giants Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The Giants are predicted to win 7.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Giants Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The front office was forced to deal with the poor salary cap management of the previous regime.
With that dead cap gone this year, the Giants could add to the roster on defense with key additions of Bobby Okereke and A’Shawn Robinson.
The defense finished with the third-highest adjusted games lost to injury in 2022. With an improvement in the roster and likely improvement in injury luck, the defense can improve upon the fifth-worst EPA/play allowed.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
Graham Gano finished the season with 4.08 field goals made over expectation, the highest in the league.
In his three seasons as a Giant, the kicker has made 91.7% of his field goal attempts and 95.8% of field goals under 50 yards.
An elite kicker provides the Giants an advantage in close games.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
Brian Daboll continued his run as the quarterback whisperer as Daniel Jones showed significant improvement as a passer in 2022.
Jones reduced his interception rate to 1.1% and finished the season completing 2.3% of his passes over expectation.
His EPA/play improved from -0.03 to 0.07. The receiving core will benefit from the addition of Darren Waller and better health, which provides the quarterback an opportunity to improve upon last season.
» Bet the Giants Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Giants Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Giants have five games with a rest disadvantage compared to three with a rest advantage totaling the fifth-worst net rest edge.
The Giants have been awarded three Monday Night Football games, two of which are in the final five weeks of the season when an extra day of rest is welcomed.
They also play four games in a five-week stretch in which their opponents have over six days of rest.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Giants were fortunate to finish 2022 with 9.5 wins thanks to an 8-4-1 record in one-score games.
They improved from a negative-3 turnover margin in 2021 to a plus-3 turnover differential in 2022 including a plus-8 differential in one-score games, which may be difficult to replicate.
Four of their first five wins came in games in which they trailed or were tied at halftime.
The projected increase in schedule difficulty is also of concern as the Giants were 2-7 against teams finishing with a winning record, the worst winning percentage of any playoff team.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
The offensive line is a below-average unit that finished 26th in run block win rate and 29th in pass block win rate according to ESPN.
The Giants are projected to face the league’s most difficult schedule of opposing defenses.
» Bet the Giants Win Total Under
New York Giants Strength of Schedule:
The Giants are ranked #19 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the 14th-hardest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
