It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2023 NFL season.
In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some over and under future bets worth considering at each position group.
Up next: which running back prop bet UNDERS are likely to hit?
Bijan Robinson Rushing Touchdowns Prop: Why You Should Bet the Under:
Current Rushing Touchdowns Over/Under for Bijan Robinson:
- 8.5 rushing touchdowns on BetMGM
Why You Should Bet the Under:
- Sharing backfield with Tyler Allgeier
- Few running backs reach nine touchdowns
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
There’s a widespread assumption that Bijan Robinson dominates the workload in the Falcons backfield because the team invested a top-10 pick in him.
However, Robinson is entering a backfield that already ranked third in total rushing and fourth in rushing yards per attempt without him.
There’s no reason for the Falcons to overwork Robinson, especially with modest expectations for the team’s success.
220-pound Tyler Allgeier is going to see his fair share of touches, and it would make sense for Atlanta to lean on him in short-yardage and goal line situations, which likely limits Robinson’s rushing touchdowns.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
Only 10 running backs reached at least nine rushing touchdowns in 2022, and only two did so for teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring offense (Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb).
Atlanta was tied for 15th in scoring offense a season ago, so the team is clearly capable of scoring in the top half of the league.
However, no one would be surprised if second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder struggles and the offense sputters.
In the event Robinson is sharing touches on an inconsistent offense, there simply won’t be scoring opportunities for him to hit the over on his rushing touchdowns prop.
» Bet the Bijan Robinson Rushing Touchdowns Under
Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards Prop: Why You Should Bet the Under:
Current Rushing Yards Over/Under for Jahmyr Gibbs:
- 625.5 rushing yards on DraftKings Sportsbook
Why You Should Bet the Under:
- Competition from David Montgomery
- Better fit for the passing game
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
Although the Lions invested substantial draft capital in Jahmyr Gibbs, they also gave free agent David Montgomery $18 million over three years with just under half of the contract guaranteed.
Montgomery is going to see significant action and is probably a better fit for the Lions run game.
Detroit typically doesn’t spread defenses out, which forced its ball carriers to run into a box with seven or more defenders on 70% of carries last year, per TruMedia.
That’s potentially a problem for Gibbs, who ran into a stacked box on just 29% of his carries at Alabama last season, according to Sports Info Solutions.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The 224-pound Montgomery may be better suited for the Lions rushing attack, which means we’ll likely see Gibbs primarily in the passing game.
The usage breakdown could mirror last year’s distribution between D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams:
- Swift: 70 targets, 99 rush attempts
- Williams: 16 targets, 262 rush attempts
When Swift was on the field last year, only 28% of the Lions' plays were handoffs compared to 59% when Williams was on the field.
» Bet the Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards Under
Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop: Why You Should Bet the Under:
Current Rushing Yards Over/Under for Alexander Mattison:
- 874.5 rushing yards on BetMGM
- 925.5 rushing yards on FanDuel SportsBook
Why You Should Bet the Under:
- Significant competition on roster
- Poor track record as a backup
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
Alexander Mattison is the most tenured running back on the Vikings roster, but he was not drafted by the current regime.
Since the new front office and coaching regime took over in 2022, two running backs have been drafted (Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride) while Kene Nwangwu was a selection of the previous regime.
Clearly, there are people in the organization who would like to see the other ball carriers get a fair shot at the job. So while Mattison is the presumed starter for now, he won’t have a long leash.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
It’s also worth pointing out that the primary reason Mattison is the starter is because of his experience 一 not because of anything he’s proven in those opportunities.
Over the past two years, Mattison averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt while Dalvin Cook picked up 4.5 behind the same offensive line.
The area where Mattison struggles most is fighting through contact.
According to TruMedia, when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage, Mattison averaged 0.9 yards per attempt last year, ranked 55th out of 60 running backs.
That trend is especially concerning behind this Vikings offensive line which, per TruMedia, allowed contact at or behind the line of scrimmage at the league’s fourth-highest rate (48%).
