Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team's write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
49ers Over/Under Wins, 2023:
The 49ers are predicted to win 10.5 games in 2023, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: 49ers Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The 49ers continue to be benefactors of a soft schedule with the fifth-easiest projected schedule of opponents in 2023 after facing the second-easiest schedule last season.
In 2022, the 49ers swept the division.
They are currently favorites in all six games against the division this season.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
After the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers closed the season with 10 straight regular-season victories and added two more victories in the playoffs.
The only losses with CMC in the lineup were the first game against the Chiefs the week of the trade and the Conference Championship game in which Brock Purdy was injured.
#3 Reason to Bet Over:
The 49ers posted the best winning percentage against teams that finished 2022 with a winning record. They went 4-1 with their only loss against the Chiefs.
The 49ers also won a league-high 11 games by more than one score despite playing more than half the season with their third-string quarterback who was a seventh-round draft pick.
» Bet the 49ers Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: 49ers Win Total in 2023
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The 49ers have a league-worst -20-day net rest edge.
They play four teams coming off their bye week.
In total, the 49ers play five games totaling 26 days in which the opponent has more rest compared to two games totaling 6 days with more rest than their opponent.
Compounding the rest disadvantage is the fact that four of the five games are on the road including three from Week 10 on.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The 49ers entered the NFL draft with the fifth-lowest Sharp Draft Value Rank for the second consecutive season.
Despite the lack of draft capital, they used a third-round pick on a kicker.
The prior season, the 49ers traded up for a running back that totaled 34 carries in 2022 and is now buried on the depth chart.
Questionable asset management has hindered roster depth, a concern if injuries hit.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under:
The 49ers ranked first in overall defense efficiency in EPA/play in 2022.
However, they played the easiest schedule of opposing offenses.
This season, the opposing offenses are projected to be league-average in efficiency, which is a large jump from last season.
The 49ers were stout against the run, but the passing defense allowed a 65.6% completion percentage and will be tested by opposing quarterbacks including Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, and Deshaun Watson.
» Bet the 49ers Win Total Under
San Francisco 49ers Strength of Schedule:
The 49ers are ranked #5 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the fifth-easiest schedule for the 2023 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2023 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
