Exploiting Default Fantasy Football Rankings, 2023

The default draft rankings are a major driver of ADP variation across the biggest fantasy football sites: ESPN, Yahoo, and NFL.com.

The average fantasy football player relies heavily on each site’s draft software to determine when a player should be drafted.

While that is understandable, it can create value opportunities if one of the major sites is considerably higher or lower on a player than the industry average.

Those rankings can also create a different draft flow for each position.

For example, some sites value running backs more heavily, leading to second-tier and “dead zone” running back going much earlier than their industry ADP.

Knowing about these differences creates an opportunity to get ahead of positional runs and make value picks.

• ESPN
• Yahoo
• NFL

Sharp Football Fantasy Football Rankings:

• Top 200 Rankings
• Quarterback Rankings 
• Running Back Rankings
• Wide Receiver Rankings
• Tight End Rankings

Exploiting ESPN's Default Fantasy Football Rankings

In general, ESPN’s default rankings push early running backs higher than our overall valuation.

This is especially true of early “dead zone” running backs such as Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, and Dameon Pierce.

There are still some values at the position compared to our rankings, however.

Tony Pollard ranks 12 overall over at ESPN, behind Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry.

We like Pollard more than all three of those backs.

Gamers with a pick later in the first round can benefit from skipping on the running backs, picking an elite receiver instead, and then picking up Pollard in the second.

In the second tier, Rhamondre Stevenson is another back we like much more than his ESPN ranking.

The elevation of the early “dead zone” running backs has created values at receiver. Keenan Allen, Christian Watson, Calvin Ridley, D.J. Moore, and Terry McLaurin stand out as values compared to our ranking among the WR2 group.

Allen is still ranked higher than his ADP at ESPN, however, and Jerry Jeudy stands out as someone ranked well over ADP.

Interestingly, the meat of the “dead zone” has a lot of values, although Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, Miles Sanders, and James Conner are all ranked well over their ADP.

Backs like Kenneth Walker, Alexander Mattison, James Cook, David Montgomery, D’Andre Swift, and J.K. Dobbins are considerably higher in our valuation.

Walker, Mattison, Swift, and Dobbins are also ranked well below their industry ADP at ESPN.

At quarterback, Justin Fields and Justin Herbert stand out as players ranked well below their industry ADP.

Fields especially is someone to target given his rushing ability and the overall QB1 upside that comes with it.

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts are also below ADP, but they are right in line with our rankings.

Travis Kelce is right around his industry average, but the rest of the tight end group is cheaper at ESPN.

Mark Andrews is ranked a round under ADP while George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, and Dallas Goedert are ranked well under their ADPs as well.

The next group of tight ends, however, is generally ranked considerably higher than our valuation and ADP.

Cole Kmet and Dalton Schultz stand out in that regard.

Given how tight ends are ranked, it makes sense to aim for one of the top seven options.

Notable Players Outside ESPN's Top 150 Fantasy Football Rankings:

• Rashod Bateman
• Jared Goff
• Jameson Williams
• Jaylen Warren
• Tank Bigsby
• Roschon Johnson
• Devon Achane
• Tyjae Spears
• Jonathan Mingo
• Tyler Allgeier
• Elijah Mitchell

Players We Have Ranked Higher:

Players We Have Ranked Lower:

Exploiting Yahoo's Default Fantasy Football Rankings

There are not many surprises early in the Yahoo rankings, which differs from the other two sites in that the default scoring system is half-PPR.

Nick Chubb at No. 7 overall is higher than both our rankings and his industry ADP, but his draft spot has been rising all August.

Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs are all ranked well ahead of ADP, but their Yahoo rankings fall in line with ours.

The first big deviations come with the next group of running backs. Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Aaron Jones are all listed well ahead of our rankings.

A back we like, Joe Mixon’s Yahoo rank is actually lower than ours, but both rankings are well ahead of his ADP.

That disconnect with ADP continues for most of the backs through the “dead zone.” J.K. Dobbins, Dameon Pierce, Cam Akers, David Montgomery, James Conner, James Cook, and Dalvin Cook stand out as being ranked more than a round ahead of their industry ADP.

Those rankings should create a buying opportunity for the second tier of receivers, making the Anchor-RB approach a great strategy in Yahoo drafts.

Of that second tier of receivers, Calvin Ridley, Deebo Samuel, Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy, D.J. Moore, and Christian Watson stand out as players ranked well below their industry ADP and our valuation.

The top three quarterbacks are pushed a little below their industry ADP, but their Yahoo rankings are right around where we have them.

Lamar Jackson is ranked slightly below where we have him, but Justin Herbert is the real stand out at quarterback.

Yahoo has Herbert ranked below Trevor Lawrence and 20 picks behind both our valuation and industry ADP.

With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both also well below our rankings and industry ADP, stacking the Chargers passing game makes sense in Yahoo leagues.

Travis Kelce is ranked five spots below his ranking on the other two sites and below both our valuation and industry ADP.

Kelce’s cost is usually tough to stomach given how quickly the falloff happens at running back and wide receiver, but it is much easier if Kelce is available at the end of the first round.

Mark Andrews is also ranked below ADP and our valuation, and the gap between him and T.J. Hockenson is only eight spots.

While that second group of tight ends is in general pushed up, Darren Waller stands out as an outstanding value. Yahoo has him ranked nearly two rounds below where we believe he should be selected.

Andrews and Waller are great targets in Yahoo leagues.

Notable Players Outside Yahoo's Top 150 Fantasy Football Rankings:

• Roschon Johnson
• Darnell Mooney
• Jonathan Mingo
• Zay Jones
• Jameson Williams
• Tyjae Spears

Players We Have Ranked Higher:

Players We Have Ranked Lower:

Exploiting NFL's Default Fantasy Football Rankings

Quarterbacks stand out in NFL.com’s default rankings.

The top three options are all ranked higher than where we have them, but Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen are right around their industry ADP.

Ranked third among that group, Patrick Mahomes is actually well below his ADP.

Lamar Jackson is also right around where we have him and his ADP, but things go a bit wild after that.

Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow are ranked a full round above where we have them, although Burrow’s NFL.com ranking is actually below his ADP.

Trevor Lawrence is ranked 30 spots above where we have him, and the same is true of Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson, and nearly every QB2.

Sam Howell and Jordan Love are both ranked over 75 spots higher than where we have them and well above their ADPs.

These rankings should lead to more gamers selecting two quarterbacks than at other fantasy sites, offering value to those who avoid that bench quarterback.

Of course, the elevation of every QB2 does make it more difficult to play the late-round quarterback game.

At running back, the RB2 tier is ranked roughly around their ADP, but that is much higher than we have them in our rankings.

Players such as Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, and Miles Sanders are ranked more than a round above our valuation.

Dalvin Cook is especially elevated, ranking 40 spots above where we have him at Sharp Football.

The next group of running backs looks like values, however, with Rachaad White, James Conner, James Cook, Alvin Kamara, and David Montgomery ranked well below our valuation.

Aaron Jones goes ahead of that group in most drafts but is ranked right next to Sanders at NFL.com. He could be a value.

Joe Mixon is ranked even lower, falling more than a round below our valuation and ADP. He is a great target for teams that start receiver heavy.

Given those rankings, Anchor-RB could make sense for NFL.com teams, although the early-round running backs are ranked near ADP and our valuation.

Another factor working in the Anchor-RB favor is the values available in the WR2 tier of receivers.

Chris Olave, Tee Higgins, and DeVonta Smith are ranked slightly below our valuation, but Keenan Allen, DK Metcalf, Christian Watson, Deebo Samuel, D.J. Moore, and Jerry Jeudy all are ranked at least nine spots below our valuation.

Most of those names also are ranked below their industry ADP.

Grabbing a running back and wide receiver in the first two rounds and then hammering that group of WR2 values is a good strategy.

It also has to be noted Jalin Hyatt is ranked 124th overall, 111 spots above our valuation and nearly 50 spots above his average draft position.

Fellow rookies Jayden Reed and Rashee Rich are ranked well above our valuation and their ADP, as well.

In general, the top tight ends are ranked around where expected, but the next group of tight ends is pushed up the rankings.

Evan Engram and David Njoku are ranked more than a round over our valuation, and Dalton Schultz, Dalton Kincaid, Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, and Juwan Johnson are ranked several rounds above their ADP.

Notable Players Outside NFL's Top 150 Fantasy Football Rankings:

• Kenneth Gainwell
• Jaylen Warren
• Rashaad Penny
• Tank Bigsby
• Roschon Johnson
• Tyjae Spears
• Michael Gallup
• Tyler Allgeier

Players We Have Ranked Higher:

Players We Have Ranked Lower:

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