Best Ball Fantasy Strategy: ADP Moves to Buy and Fade

As we move through camp and especially the early preseason games, players get hyped up for small sample plays.

They get downgraded as well either by perceived usage over that same small sample size or minor injuries that should not affect the long-term outlook of the player.

This can be attacked by buying or fading teams we believe are under or overvalued.

Here are a few teams and names that hopefully will give you a template of what to look for during this time when ADP moves are quite volatile.

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Fantasy Football Players to Buy

The Falcons are a team I have come to believe in are underpriced.

Last year, we saw the Lions take a huge step forward due to a top offensive line. The Falcons have the type of line that could give great results.

Just like the Lions, a perceived weak quarterback has kept most of the pieces on this offense cheap.

Bijan Robinson is fairly priced but sometimes slips to the early second round where he is a snap select.

Drake London is also fairly priced but a guy we should be targeting as he has a great floor due to his ability to receive lots of short passes.

As Darren Waller’s ADP has moved up, we have seen a discount on Kyle Pitts. He is especially intriguing on DraftKings for his ability to get you the 100-yard bonus from a tight end going in the seventh round.

Finally, Tyler Allgeier seemingly has a role as a runner and is an elite handcuff that we should be grabbing with both fists.

The Miami Dolphins have some warning flags that have opened up some opportunities.

Jaylen Waddle has fallen a few picks. That might not seem like much, but he has dropped into a very flat tier that exists at the end of Round 2 and continues through the middle third round.

Due to concussion concerns, Tua Tagovalloa remains cheap, and that combo could win you a million dollars.

With Devon Achane‘s injury, Raheem Mostert is rightfully getting steam, but if we see him move up too much this week don’t be afraid to buy the dip on Achane or the fabulous price on Jeff Wilson.

Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews are not cheap, but they are priced very fair. You can get them in the aforementioned second to third round dead zone.

What makes this team intriguing is the uncertainty around Odell Beckham, Rashad Bateman, and Zay Flowers.

Two players are coming off injuries and one is a rookie. It is very possible all three can pay off ADP, but two of them are highly likely to do so.

And speaking of likely, Isaiah Likely is too talented to go where he does late in drafts. I believe has a floor in the new Todd Monken offense and has an elite ceiling should Andrews get hurt.

The Green Bay Packers are in transition at quarterback, and due to that transition, the players have been cheap all offseason.

While we won’t know till the season starts and some of the players have started to move up, there is still opportunity here.

Jordan Love is the biggest question, but he has shown signs of continued improvement so far.

Christian Watson has questions as well due to his high TD rate as a rookie but has tourney winner written all over him.

Luke Musgrave’s price has started to move up but he is still a value.

We have been pushing the value of the Dallas Cowboys offense all off-season.

Dak Prescott remains very reasonable as do three of his weapons: Brandin Cooks, Jake Ferguson, and Michael Gallup.

Even if you miss out on the Ceedee Lamb or Tony Pollard, the Cowboys make a lot of sense.

The Steelers are a team I am underweight on, but with Kenny Pickett playing well I have moved them into the buy category.

That is especially true for George Pickens, who seemingly has improved his route tree and has elite skills on contested catches. It will be interesting to see how far Jaylen Warren moves up after his big run as well.

A bunch of the Chiefs are very cheap, especially Isiah Pacheco and Kadarius Toney.

Toney was always thin where he went early in the offseason, but the two-round discount is worth taking shots on as his injury shouldn’t keep him out long.

Pacheco has been rehabbing his shoulder and has seen his ADP drop even though there is no hint he might miss Week 1.

Finally, due to the concerns about how good Anthony Richardson will be the Colts are very cheap.

Especially cheap in my view is Michael Pittman, who was 24th in PPG last year with the ghost of Matt Ryan at QB.

He is being drafted as the WR37 and three rounds after where he went last year with arguably a better QB, albeit one who will be inconsistent.

Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, and Jelani Woods are also excellent values.

Fantasy Football Players to Fade

There are not as many of these as there are buys, but the ADP on Justin Fields and D.J. Moore have gotten crazy off of one screen pass in a preseason game.

Hopefully, you have been adding them steadily over the last two months when the prices were good!

The Giants have been a great value all offseason, but Darren Waller, Jalin Hyatt, and Daniel Jones are all moving up into a territory where we can find better situations to attack.

Waller’s ADP was held back by his soft tissue concerns which can pop up at any time. I still love Hyatt and Jones but am monitoring where they are going as Hyatt will be worked in and Jones as mentioned might jump players and teams whose values are better.

It is hard to say anything bad about the Eagles, but know you are paying full price for the weapons there

Also, Jalen Hurts with either Devonte Smith or Dallas Goedert is going to be one of the most stacked combinations, so if you do take them look to differentiate the rest of your roster.

You could say similar things about Patrick Mahomes with Travis Kelce, Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs, and Joe Burrow with Ja'Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins.

The Chiefs have so many decent later options it is easier to differentiate, but the Mahomes/Kelce stack is the most rostered one on the board, and you are paying first- and second-round prices to get it.

That is something I want to be underweight on.

Skyy Moore is also someone to target as he sometimes falls into the 100s.

The lesson here is that what worked last year is always expensive and we should look to differentiate our rosters by adding some other pieces of the teams while also realizing that alone won’t differentiate.

Try adding second higher priced stacks as that will be much lower rostered or by adding players late ahead of their ADP to differentiate.

The Seahawks have been held back price-wise over the concern Geno Smith might regress to his mean, and his weapons are NOT cheap. If you like me was hoping for a better window to buy Jaxon Smith-Njigba,you like me have been disappointed.

Due to this, DK Metcalf remains one of the most overpriced if talented players on the board, and JSN’s continued wowing has also taken me a bit off of Tyler Lockett.

It is a team you shouldn’t avoid, but try to get the parts when they drop a bit, and then you can add Smith cheaply when it happens.

Some individual players we should be wary of whether through ADP moves, age, or just a tough price include:

Travis Kelce is 34 now and you are paying top dollar. Mark Andrews two rounds later gives you the same upside with less concern.
Derrick Henry is a marvel but now is in the second round and has a better backup than he has the past few years. The age cliff is looming large, and he has been injured for parts of the last few years.
Breece Hall can win you a league, but Dalvin Cook is not toast as some would suggest. My favorite way to play this team is to wait until Breece falls to at least the late fourth and then look to ADD Cook if the price is reasonable.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been pushed up to the mid-third round again, and there are just too many ways for him to fail in half PPR.
Najee Harris might drop after Warren’s big play, but until he does it is a tough click with so many good RBs going later.
Aaron Jones started out as a target for me but has become a fade as again there are just players to like a little later.
Jordan Addison is a full fade for me as he still goes really early, is at best the third option, and K.J. Osborn seems to be in the mix to play in two WR sets.