It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2023 NFL season.
We have already looked at the best over and unders for quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers.
Up next: Which longshot props are likely to hit?
Our in-season betting packages have you covered with sides, totals, and props, but there's also a ton of value to be had in the Futures market. Warren's Futures Package has compiled a 54-25-1 (68.4%) record on non-longshot recommendations and amassed +27.2 units of profit over all recommendations over the last four years. Don't miss out on our Futures Package for $129.99 as additional futures will be released in-season to attack Team Futures and Awards Markets. Click here to learn more!
Most Regular Season Passing Yards Prop: Why You Should Bet on Justin Herbert:
Most Regular Season Passing Yards Prop:
- Justin Herbert: +650 at DraftKings
Why You Should Bet on Justin Herbert:
- Deeper receiving corps
- More aggressive downfield attack
- Potential for weak run game
#1 Reason to bet on Herbert:
The Chargers receiving corps returns intact from a season ago with the addition of first-round pick Quentin Johnston.
Although I previously discussed why I’m betting against a breakout rookie year for Johnston, he undeniably enhances the Chargers’ depth at the position.
Johnston’s skill set as a weapon after the catch makes him particularly strong insurance behind Keenan Allen, who missed seven games in 2022.
#2 Reason to bet on Herbert:
New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore does not have a reputation as an aggressive downfield passer. However, he may have been limited by coaching under Jason Garrett and Mike McCarthy in Dallas.
Even if Moore maintains his approach, it should lead to more downfield attempts for Herbert than he saw under the ultraconservative Joe Lombardi.
Take a look at the rate at which Herbert and Dak Prescott threw 15 or more yards downfield in the first three quarters of games last year, per TruMedia:
- Herbert: 16.8% (ranked 25th out of 33)
- Prescott: 19.9% (ranked 13th)
#3 Reason to bet on Herbert:
The Chargers run game should be fine if Austin Ekeler is healthy and effective, but injuries happen and there’s no proven depth behind the 28-year-old.
Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller return as Ekeler’s backups despite uninspiring performances to this point in their careers.
Last year as a rookie, Spiller struggled to earn playing time, picking up just 2.3 yards per attempt in limited action. Meanwhile Kelley has averaged just 3.5 yards per carry throughout his career.
» Bet the Most Passing Yards: Justin Herbert
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards Prop: Why You Should Bet on Tony Pollard:
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards Prop:
- Tony Pollard: +1800 at FanDuel
Why You Should Bet on Tony Pollard:
- Conservative coaching staff
- No competition for carries
#1 Reason to bet on Pollard:
Mike McCarthy has always leaned on a run-heavy approach, and it is possible the addition of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer enhances this philosophy.
In 12 years as an offensive coordinator, Schottenheimer’s lead back has averaged 15 or more carries per game seven times with another one just missing the cut at 14.9.
#2 Reason to bet on Pollard:
To lead the league in rushing a ball carrier needs over 300 attempts, a milestone Schottenheimer’s running backs have reached only twice (both Thomas Jones with the Jets).
However, there have only been five seasons in which Schottenheimer’s lead back played a full season. Here’s a breakdown of their total carries:
- 2012 Steve Jackson: 258 carries
- 2011 Shonn Greene: 253 carries
- 2009 Thomas Jones: 331 carries
- 2008 Thomas Jones: 290 carries
- 2007 Thomas Jones: 310 carries
It’s reasonable to guess Pollard could reach the higher end of that spectrum due to the lack of competition in Dallas.
With Ezekiel Elliott gone, Pollard will be supported by the unproven trio of Rico Dowdle, Malik Davis, and Deuce Vaughn.
» Bet the Most Rushing Yards: Tony Pollard
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Receiver to Reach 1500+ Receiving Yards: Why You Should Bet on A.J. Brown
Receiver to Reach 1500+ Receiving Yards Prop:
- A.J. Brown: +600 at DraftKings
Why You Should Bet on A.J. Brown:
- Fell four yards short last year
- Possibility of a more pass-heavy offense
#1 Reason to bet on Brown:
A.J. Brown already gave us a strong proof of concept for this bet last year, reaching 1,496 yards. He immediately developed chemistry with Jalen Hurts, and should only build upon that with another offseason together.
The Eagles receiving corps returns intact, with only Olamide Zaccheaus added to the mix. Zaccheaus is an undersized slot receiver who fills a different role in the offense, so his presence likely has no impact on Brown.
#1 Reason to bet on Brown:
Earlier this month, I recommended taking the over on Hurts’s passing yards, and some of the same logic applies here.
Although we should expect another great year from the Eagles, repeating last year’s level of dominance in the regular season will be tough.
Philly had a league-high 58 drives while leading by 10 points or more, 31% of their total drives.
A few more close games could lead to even more opportunities in the passing game, allowing Brown to surpass last year’s impressive stats.
Most Interceptions Thrown: Why You Should Bet on Bryce Young
Most Interceptions Thrown:
- Bryce Young: +3000 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Why You Should Bet on Bryce Young:
- Rookies are bad
- Offense could be aggressive
#1 Reason to bet on Young:
Over the past 20 years, there have been 16 rookie quarterbacks to start at least 16 games 一 all but one (Dak Prescott) reached double-digit interceptions.
Simply due to his inexperience, Young is almost certain to be in the mix for the most interceptions
#2 Reason to bet on Young:
The Panthers’ passing offense could be surprisingly aggressive this year under head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Thomas Brown.
If they ask Young to consistently challenge defenses downfield, he may struggle early in his career, as it was his biggest weakness at Alabama.
According to TruMedia, Young completed just two of nine passes at 10 or more yards downfield during the preseason.
Even if he struggles, however, it doesn’t mean the coaching staff will dial it back.
Reich was in Philadelphia when Carson Wentz threw 14 interceptions as a rookie, and he was Philip Rivers’ offensive coordinator when Rivers led the league with 18 in 2014. And Brown was in Los Angeles two years ago when Matthew Stafford’s 17 interceptions paced the league.
If the coaches have some tolerance for interceptions, it stands to reason they’re going to run their offense and just let Young learn through the mistakes.
Longest Field Goal Made: Why You Should Bet on Greg Joseph
Longest Field Goal Made:
- Greg Joseph: +1100 at BetMGM
Why You Should Bet on Greg Joseph:
- Given long FG opportunities
- Plenty of opportunities indoors
#1 Reason to bet on Joseph:
Minnesota Vikings kicker Greg Joseph narrowly missed hitting the longest field goal last year, nailing a 61-yarder but getting outkicked by Greg Zuerlein at 62 yards.
The Vikings appear to have confidence in Joseph’s leg, as he was given five opportunities to hit a field goal over 55 yards last season 一 tied for the league lead with veterans Justin Tucker and Zuerlein.
#2 Reason to bet on Joseph:
Joseph will play 11 of his 17 games in a dome this season and another one in the friendly thin air of Denver.
In addition to his eight home games, Joseph also plays at Detroit, Las Vegas, and Atlanta.
