2023 Fantasy Football Draft Analysis: Best Ball Mania

Fantasy football draft season is starting to wrap up, but the biggest draft weekend of the year still stands between us and Week 1.

Also still running is the Best Ball Mania IV contest over at Underdog Fantasy.

That contest features $15 million in prizes and a massive $3 million top prize.

You can get in on that action AND get the Sharp Fantasy Football Draft Kit for just $1 when you sign up and deposit at Underdog.

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I took part in one of those Best Ball Mania IV drafts on August 30. What follows are the results of that draft and some analysis about my goals, strategies, and where I went wrong.

This particular draft is interesting because I am not a huge fan of this squad — I like the correlations but think it is very boom-bust — but this is one of my highest projected Best Ball Mania teams according to Underdog.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

I had pick No. 6 in this draft.

Round 1:

1. Justin Jefferson
2. Ja'Marr Chase
3. Christian McCaffrey
4. Tyreek Hill
5. Travis Kelce
6. Cooper Kupp
7. Tony Pollard
8. Nick Chubb
9. Bijan Robinson
10. Austin Ekeler
11. Stefon Diggs
12. Garrett Wilson

Sitting at six, I was pretty sure I would get one of the top four receivers given where Travis Kelce usually goes, and I am happy to have Cooper Kupp.

There are certainly concerns about the Rams' ability to score points and what would happen if Matthew Stafford is forced to miss some time, but Kupp will have a great shot to lead the league in targets if he stays healthy.

There were a couple of surprising elements of this first round.

First, Tony Pollard coming off the board as the RB2 at No. 7 overall is not the norm. He is usually available in the second round and goes behind Nick Chubb and Bijan Robinson.

Rich Hribar is big on Pollard, and it is tough to take too hard of a stand against him as the RB2 after the Cowboys failed to add a veteran back.

Pollard also usually goes behind Austin Ekeler, who also surprisingly was not the RB2 in this draft. That is less of a surprise with Robinson and Chubb moving up the ADP over the last month, but it is still not what usually happens.

Round 2:

1. Chris Olave
2. A.J. Brown
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown
4. Clavin Ridley
5. CeeDee Lamb
6. Jaylen Waddle
7. Saquon Barkley
8. Derrick Henry
9. Davante Adams
10. Tee Higgins
11. DeVonta Smith
12. Josh Jacobs

I was surprised to see Saquon Barkley still around in the mid-second round, and getting both he and Cooper Kupp to start the draft feels like a somewhat unique Week 17 correlation — the Rams and Giants play each other — given the ADPs of both players.

I leaned into that Rams/Giants stack the rest of the draft despite not having any trust in the Rams offense. A unique correlation with elite players is worth feeling uncomfortable when leaving a draft.

The receiver order in this round was all over the place.

I am a big fan of Chris Olave this season, especially after what we saw from the Saints' starting offense in limited preseason action, but drafting him ahead of A.J. Brown and Amon-Ra St. Brown is a reach.

The same is true of Calvin Ridley ahead of CeeDee Lamb and Jaylen Waddle ahead of Davante Adams. Olave, Waddle, and Ridley will go behind those other receivers in most drafts.

Because of the power of ADP, Josh Jacobs is still available at the end of the second round and into the third round in some drafts. That is great value for a true three-down back even if last season ends up being the best we ever see from him.

Round 3:

1. Patrick Mahomes
2. DK Metcalf
3. Josh Allen
4. Mark Andrews
5. Jalen Hurts
6. Keenan Allen
7. Jahmyr Gibbs
8. Amari Cooper
9. Lamar Jackson
10. Justin Fields
11. Deebo Samuel
12. Travis Etienne

I believe the Chargers passing offense is going to be much better under the new offensive coordinator. Keenan Allen was still good last season when on the field. That on-the-field part is a concern, but he has solid upside for a third-round receiver and has been one of my WR2 targets all draft season.

He was not drafted until the middle of the third round, and there is a big dropoff from the top eight back to him, but Jahmyr Gibbs as the RB9 is wild.

Gibbs is an explosive player who should immediately be a factor in the passing game, but there is little reason to believe David Montgomery will not be the No. 1 option on early downs and near the end zone.

Unless he is scoring on a lot of long plays — which is possible given Gibbs' explosive ability — or gets a surprising amount of work in short-yardage situations, it will be difficult for Gibbs to return value here.

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Round 4:

1. Breece Hall
2. Christian Watson
3. D.J. Moore
4. Joe Mixon
5. Rhamondre Stevenson
6. Joe Burrow
7. Mike Williams
8. Drake London
9. Aaron Jones
10. Najee Harris
11. Kenneth Walker
12. DeAndre Hopkins

I followed up Keenan Allen with Mike Williams because I was trying to set up a Justin Herbert stack. That did not work out because Herbert was drafted at the top of the fifth round before my next pick.

Womp, womp, womp.

Still, I added several Broncos the rest of the way including Russell Wilson to keep that Week 17 correlation alive. It was not the most ideal outcome, but it is important to be flexible in these drafts.

Joe Mixon continues to be the only unquestioned three-down back that falls outside the top 30 picks. He finished third in the league in expected rushing touchdowns last season in 14 games and has even less backfield competition this season.

I have not ended up with enough Drake London this year simply because of where he usually ends up in drafts, and that could end up being a mistake.

Among receivers to run at least 200 routes last season, London ranked 14th in yards per route run (2.07), fifth in target rate per route (28%), and third in target share (29.3%), and he still commanded targets when Kyle Pitts was active.

He should have the volume for a WR3 floor, and he has the upside for more if Desmond Ridder can improve on what Marcus Mariota was able to do last season.

Round 5:

1. Brandon Aiyuk
2. Justin Herbert
3. Diontae Johnson
4. Tyler Lockett
5. Christian Kirk
6. Darren Waller
7. George Pickens
8. George Kittle
9. T.J. Hockenson
10. Terry McLaurin
11. Jerry Jeudy
12. Dameon Pierce

Darren Waller has been one of my favorite tight end targets all draft season, so it made sense to add him to the Cooper Kupp and Saquon Barkley stack. That group comes with some injury downside, for sure, but those are easily the three best offensive players on two teams I am stacking in Week 17.

If not for the stack, I likely would have selected George Pickens.

Pickens was used primarily down the field last season and only earned a target on 14.5% of his rookie routes. Among all receivers with at least 50 targets last season, he was easily first in the percentage of go routes (38.1%).

His preseason usage and comments from Kenny Pickett suggest that is going to change this season. If he turns into more of a full-field receiver, the sky is the limit for Pickens on an offense that has a lot of positive touchdown regression markers.

Round 6:

1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Jahan Dotson
3. Chris Godwin
4. Jonathan Taylor
5. Alexander Mattison
6. J.K. Dobbins
7. Javonte Williams
8. Mike Evans
9. Gabe Davis
10. Jordan Addison
11. Cam Akers
12. Michael Pittman

Adding Javonte Williams here continues to build on the Chargers/Broncos stack I began with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

Williams is also one of my favorite running backs in this range given his talent and what could happen if the Broncos offense takes a step forward under Sean Payton.

It has been interesting to watch where Jonathan Taylor falls in drafts since it was announced he will start the season on the PUP.

The sixth round is still not low enough for me to draft him because there are upside options still available like Williams, Miles Sanders, and even Alvin Kamara a few rounds later. After Kamara, though, I would be interested in Taylor just for the three-down potential later in the year.

I have come around on Michael Pittman and believe he probably is being drafted at or even below his floor.

With a career-low 7.0 air yards per target last season, Pittman is coming off an inefficient year, but he was much better on a per-target basis before that in his career, suggesting the offensive dysfunction and quarterback play had a lot to do with that down season.

Anthony Richardson will likely struggle as a passer early in his career, but he cannot be much worse than what Pittman already dealt with last season, and Pittman is the easy favorite to lead the team in targets.

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Round 7:

1. James Conner
2. Zay Flowers
3. Kyle Pitts
4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
5. Miles Sanders
6. Courtland Sutton
7. Elijah Moore
8. Deshaun Watson
9. Brandin Cooks
10. David Montgomery
11. James Cook
12. Dallas Goedert

Courtland Sutton continues that Chargers/Broncos stack and was one of my targets in this area of the draft even before the Jerry Jeudy injury.

Sutton has been inefficient to this point in his career, but he looked good in the preseason, and those performances matched the reports coming out of camp.

Now he will open the season as the clear No. 1 receiver in Denver, and it remains to be seen how quickly Jeudy will return or how effective he will be once he does.

The world is just going to continue sleeping on Brandin Cooks this season.

Cooks cratered last year, putting up a 57-699-3 line in 13 games, but he was playing in one of the worst offenses in the league and for a team he no longer wanted.

He did not show any signs of decline in 2021 (1.98 yards per route, 25.5% route target rate), so it makes sense last year was more of a bad situation than the start of a slip.

Now he enters a good passing offense that has over 200 targets to replace from last season.

Cooks remains a great value.

Round 8:

1. Treylon Burks
2. Rachaad White
3. Marquise Brown
4. Rashod Bateman
5. Quentin Johnston
6. Skyy Moore
7. Alvin Kamara
8. Isiah Pacheco
9. Dalvin Cook
10. D'Andre Swift
11. Khalil Herbert
12. Kadarius Toney

I understand Alvin Kamara is coming off some down seasons and is going to miss the first three games due to suspension, but he has not had the ADP bump I expected when news of that relatively short suspension surfaced.

Jamaal Williams is a massive threat to Kamara's touchdown total, to be sure, but he should also allow Kamara to get back to the passing-game role that made him a fantasy star.

Perhaps Kamara is washed and this will not work out, but it is worth a shot in the eighth round.

The most likely outcome is Isiah Pacheco returns as the clear early-down starter in Kansas City once he is fully healthy, but it is at least somewhat concerning Clyde Edwards-Helaire started the final preseason game with Pacheco active.

That split will be interesting to watch early in the season, and CEH suddenly looks like a good late-round dart throw.

Round 9:

1. Romeo Doubs
2. Pat Freiermuth
3. Michael Thomas
4. AJ Dillon
5. JuJu Smith-Schuster
6. Antonio Gibson
7. Tua Tagovailoa
8. David Njoku
9. Odell Beckham
10. Brian Robinson
11. Evan Engram
12. Zach Charbonnet

Brian Robinson averaged 9.64 half-PPR points (35th) despite touching the ball nearly 19 times a game from Week 6 to Week 17 last season.

Antonio Gibson was right with Robinson over that 11-game stretch in half-PPR formats despite touching the ball 82 fewer times and playing one fewer game.

That pair also split goal-to-go work almost evenly when both were healthy.

It is tough to make a case of Robinson being a better fantasy play than Gibson in leagues that reward points for receptions.

Evan Engram finished fifth in raw targets last season among qualifying tight ends but 12th in fantasy points per target.

That is not a massive red flag, but it is a concern if his targets take even a small hit with Calvin Ridley now in the picture.

Also, Engram had some massive fantasy weeks but was the TE16 or worse in nine out of 17 games.

Round 10:

1. Nico Collins
2. Anthony Richardson
3. Rashaad Penny
4. Daniel Jones
5. Dak Prescott
6. Marvin Mims
7. Geno Smith
8. Tyler Boyd
9. Samaje Perine
10. Dalton Kincaid
11. Kirk Cousins
12. Jaylen Warren

I was not too excited to draft Geno Smith here with no other Seahawks on the roster and no good Seattle options available later in the draft, but the good quarterback tier was drying up quickly.

Daniel Jones was my target, but like Justin Herbert, Jones went just a few picks before me in this round.

As for Smith, it is possible last year was a fluke, but his efficiency numbers from his 2021 snaps look very similar to what he did last season. They also added Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will give Smith another weapon once the receiver returns from injury.

Smith remains a great QB value.

Tyler Boyd is a player I have no interest in drafting, which might mean he is someone you should target on every team.

Boyd has settled into a steady 800 yards and four-to-five touchdown routine over the last three seasons.

Over that span, he has been a top-20 weekly scorer 12 times in 47 games. He has been outside the top 40 21 times.

Last season, he played five full games with either Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins inactive – Higgins was never actually inactive but played zero snaps in two games, and Boyd played two snaps in Week 14.

His weekly finishes were WR67, WR28, WR32, WR55, and WR83.

I just don't see the upside even if Chase or Higgins goes down.

Round 11:

1. Jamaal Williams
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Jonathan Mingo
4. Tank Bigsby
5. Zay Jones
6. Tyler Higbee
7. Sam LaPorta
8. Jakobi Meyers
9. Rashee Rice
10. Jared Goff
11. Jerick McKinnon
12. Elijah Mitchell

The Rams' receiving corps behind Cooper Kupp is a mess, which could once again leave Tyler Higbee as the No 2 option in the passing game.

Higbee's per-game numbers were actually better with Kupp on the field last season since the offense as a whole was better.

• Games with Kupp; 7.2 targets per game, 42.8 yards per game
• Games without Kupp: 5.4 targets per game, 29.4 yards per game

Again, I am not a huge fan of going this deep into a Rams stack, but it at least should be relatively unique, and I am at least getting the best options in the passing game.

Elijah Mitchell played six games with McCaffrey in 2022 including the playoffs. He averaged just over 10 carries for 48.5 yards and scored three touchdowns in those contests.

He also would carry immense upside if something happened to McCaffrey, although Mitchell is as likely to end up injured – he has played 16 games in two seasons.

Mitchell is a handcuff bet that could provide some standalone value during the bye weeks or in deeper leagues.

Round 12:

1. Derek Carr
2. Jameson Williams
3. Cole Kmet
4. Damien Harris
5. Michael Gallup
6. Devon Achane
7. Russell Wilson
8. Ezekiel Elliott
9. Darnell Mooney
10. Jayden Reed
11. Allen Lazard
12. Raheem Mostert

At this point, it was becoming clear I would need to take three quarterbacks. That freed me up to take some risk with Russell Wilson, who also closed up the Chargers/Broncos stack I had been working on.

The preseason returns have not been promising, but there remains a chance this offense and Wilson will turn around under Sean Payton. If that happens, having Wilson, Courtland Sutton, and Javonte Williams should be a good thing.

It was always wild that Devon Achane went ahead of Raheem Mostert in fantasy drafts, it became wilder when it was clear Achane was buried on the depth chart in the early preseason games, and it became even wilder still once Achane suffered an injury.

This draft was done before Jeff Wilson landed on injured reserve, making this Mostert selection an even better value.

Allen Lazard looks like a better bet with Corey Davis no longer around and Mecole Hardman seemingly not making a great impression with his new team, but it simply might not matter behind Garrett Wilson.

Behind Davante Adams — another alpha WR1 — in a Nathaniel Hackett-coached offense from 2019-2021, Lazard was targeted on 16.1% of his routes (would have been 69th last season) and averaged 7.05 half-PPR points per game.

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Round 13:

1. Jordan Love
2. Dalton Schultz
3. Kenneth Gainwell
4. Van Jefferson
5. Adam Thielen
6. Tyler Allgeier
7. K.J. Osborn
8. Jake Ferguson
9. Marquez Valdes-Scantling
10. Gerald Everett
11. Roschon Johnson
12. Jalin Hyatt

Tyler Allgeier is an easy click at this point in drafts.

He obviously has a ton of contingency value if anything were to happen to Bijan Robinson, but he should get a decent number of weekly touches even with Robinson healthy given the heavy run volume on this offense.

That gives him weekly spike potential if he gets loose for a long run or scores a couple of touchdowns, and since this is best ball, you don't have to guess when those weeks will be.

Jake Ferguson‘s ADP has climbed from when he was free a month ago, but he is still a great value in Round 13 given how Dalton Schultz was used during his time with the Cowboys. As seemingly the clear TE1 in Dallas, Ferguson could turn into a weekly fantasy starter.

Despite running 554 routes, the second-most on the team, Marquez Valdes-Scantling finished with a 13.2% target share and was targeted on just 14.6% of his routes last year. His 1.24 yards per route run were 69th out of 101 qualifying receivers.

21% of his targets were 20 yards or more down the field, but he did not have the spike weeks that usually come with that kind of usage. He did not finish inside the top-20 receivers in any week last season.

MVS is going to play a lot of snaps, but he is not even on my draft board.

Round 14:

1. Donovan Peoples-Jones
2. Kenny Pickett
3. Juwan Johnson
4. Alec Pierce
5. Isaiah Hodgins
6. Luke Musgrave
7. Matthew Stafford
8. Chig Okonkwo
9. Sam Howell
10. Rondale Moore
11. D.J. Chark
12. Irv Smith

Matthew Stafford is not one of my usual quarterback targets. I prefer getting one of the top eight quarterbacks and leaving a draft with just two on the roster, which usually leaves Stafford out of the equation.

The Rams are also bereft of talent on offense, especially the offensive line, and that is a big concern given Stafford is coming back from a serious injury.

All of that said, Stafford threw 41 touchdowns in 2021 and still has Sean McVay calling the plays. There is at least a case for him, and he closes up the Rams/Giants stack this team is built around.

Luke Musgrave is another great tight end sleeper despite being a rookie. He played nearly every snap with the starters in the preseason and is clearly going to be involved right out of the gate.

Round 15:

1. Curtis Samuel
2. Tyjae Spears
3. John Metchie
4. Kendre Miller
5. Brock Purdy
6. DeVante Parker
7. Deuce Vaughn
8. Gus Edwards
9. Jeff Wilson
10. Rashid Shaheed
11. Greg Dulcich
12. Taysom Hill

DeVante Parker is not an exciting pick by any stretch, but he is at worst the No. 2 option in the passing game for a Patriots team that actually has an offensive coordinator this season.

New England also gave him a new contract this offseason, and his downfield usage offers up the opportunity for spike weeks even if he is only catching three or four passes per game.

He is the right kind of receiver to target late.

No player was hurt more by his preseason usage than Greg Dulcich, who might be the TE2 on his own team at this point.

That said, Dulcich is still the best receiving option at tight end in Denver, and this fall makes him look like something of a value.

This draft was done before Jeff Wilson ended up on injured reserve.

It is promising the Dolphins kept him on the initial roster before sending him to IR, which allows him to return this season, but it is still tough to draft a part-time player that will miss at least the first several games of the season.

Round 16:

1. Hunter Renfrow
2. Devin Singletary
3. Michael Wilson
4. Tyler Conklin
5. Mecole Hardman
6. Kyler Murray
7. Tank Dell
8. Deon Jackson
9. Bryce Young
10. Chuba Hubbard
11. Parris Campbell
12. Evan Hull

With Zack Moss recovering from a broken arm, Deon Jackson might open the season as the starter, but I am more interested in Evan Hull from a fantasy perspective.

Hull was the target on 17.2% of Northwestern’s attempts last season and earned a target on 22.8% of his routes. He finished with 55 catches for 546 yards and 1.9 yards per route run.

Even if Moss or Jackson handle the early down work, Hull could establish himself as the passing-down back, and that could continue even if Taylor returns to the team.

I have not once considered drafting Hunter Renfrow this season, so that probably means he will score 11 touchdowns. Do with that information what you will.

We will see how it all shakes out, but it is a big concern for Parris Campbell that Wan'Dale Robinson, who I selected in the next round, avoided the PUP list and reportedly wants to play in Week 1.

I have my doubts about Robinson's ability to seize a big role right out of the gate, but I like his chances of being the primary slot receiver once he is fully healthy, which seems like he could be earlier than expected.

Round 17:

1. Hunter Henry
2. Kareem Hunt
3. Mike Gesicki
4. Trey McBride
5. Mac Jones
6. Wan'Dale Robinson
7. Michael Mayer
8. Chase Claypool
9. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
10. Ty Chandler
11. Zamir White
12. Joshua Palmer

As mentioned above, Wan'Dale Robinson avoiding the PUP list to start the season suddenly makes him a very interesting late-round option, and I was particularly interested in him in this draft given my Rams/Giants stack.

The Colts running backs went the round before this, ahead of potential Colts running back Kareem Hunt.

Not to get too much into the conspiracy weeds, but it is interesting Hunt's team released a “four teams are interested” report that was almost certainly an attempt to get more money out of a team the day after Jonathan Taylor ended up on the PUP list.

Hunt also visited the Colts in early August.

Round 18:

1. Robert Woods
2. D'Onta Foreman
3. Josh Reynolds
4. Ryan Tannehill
5. Chase Edmonds
6. Jerome Ford
7. Deonte Harty
8. Dawson Knox
9. Joshua Kelley
10. Desmond Ridder
11. Richie James
12. Cade Otton

I have drafted way too much last round Deonte Harty in Best Ball Mania, but there is a chance he plays a lot of snaps and runs a lot of deep routes on a team quarterbacked by Josh Allen. That is worth the shot.