As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, John Metchie, Dalton Schultz, Dameon Pierce, and every other notable Texan, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Starting 25 games the past two seasons at Ohio State, C.J. Stroud threw 85 touchdown passes to just 12 interceptions.
- 19.8% of Nico Collins‘ career targets have been deemed inaccurate including 25.8% last season. 35.7% of his targets on throws 10 yards or further were inaccurate and 55.6% of his deep targets were inaccurate last season.
- Dameon Pierce averaged just 0.86 yards per route run and 4.2 yards per target despite catching 30 passes in 13 games last season. He ranked 43rd and 48th among 60 qualifying running backs in those two metrics.
2022 Texans Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 289 (30th)
- Total Offense: 4,820 (31st)
- Plays: 1,015 (24th)
- Offensive TDs: 27 (31st)
- Points Per Drive: 1.43 (31st)
- EPA+ Per Play: -16.8 (32nd)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 31 seconds (16th)
2023 Texans Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: DeMeco Ryans
- Offensive Coordinator: Bobby Slowik
Lovie Smith walking out the door with a win that cost the Texans the No. 1 pick was perhaps my favorite storyline of the 2022 season.
All the drama and pettiness of a Real Housewives episode. I could not love it more.
The Texans replaced Smith with ex-49ers DC DeMeco Ryans, who brought in ex-49ers passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator.
Given Ryans is a defensive mind, Slowik will likely have full say on how to run the offense, and it stands to reason that the offense will borrow heavily from Kyle Shanahan’s system.
The 49ers have been 30th in neutral pass rate since Shanahan took over and four percent under their expected pass rate.
They have finished 2nd, 14th, 5th, and 9th in rushing attempts and 2nd, 15th, 7th, and 8th in rushing yards over the last four seasons.
Given the Texans are starting a rookie quarterback, that could be the way they go as well.
2022 Texans Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 637 (15th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 48.3% (24th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -2.3% (15th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 22.6% (22nd)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 60% (16th)
2023 Jaguars Passing Game Preview:
The Texans will face the ninth-easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills
- WR: Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson
- WR: Noah Brown, John Metchie
- WR: Robert Woods, Tank Dell
- TE: Dalton Schultz, Brevin Jordan
Despite not landing the No. 1 pick, the Texans landed their prospective franchise quarterback when they selected C.J. Stroud at No. 2 overall.
Even for Ohio State standards, the amount of passing production Stroud accrued over the past two seasons was lofty.
Starting 25 games the past two seasons, Stroud threw 85 touchdown passes to just 12 interceptions.
Comparing Stroud to all quarterback prospects to be invited to the combine since 2000 puts him among the elite company at his position:
- 9.8 career yards per pass attempt (98th percentile)
- 7.1:1 TD: INT ratio (97th percentile)
- 69.3% completion rate (96th percentile)
Stroud did not offer a ton as a runner in college – 34 scrambles for 189 yards total over the last two seasons – but he did flash that ability at times, scrambling six times for 66 yards against Georgia in the College Football Playoff.
Given the questionable talent in the receiving corps, Stroud will likely need more rushing production to return consistent fantasy value.
Of course, his history of production as a passer leaves open the possibility he throws effectively enough to be in the QB2 conversation even without gaudy rushing numbers.
If Stroud’s elite passing profile translates immediately, that should be good news for Nico Collins.
Through two seasons, Collins has amassed just 927 total yards and three touchdowns.
He has averaged 1.43 yards per route run for his career and has just two top-30 scoring weeks in two seasons.
Of course, 19.8% of his career targets have been deemed inaccurate including 25.8% last season.
35.7% of his targets on throws 10 yards or further were inaccurate and 55.6% of his deep targets were inaccurate last season.
He has 12 end zone targets through two seasons, and 33.3% of those have been deemed inaccurate.
It is certainly possible Collins has been a victim of circumstance thus far in his career, and Stroud was specifically good at passing down the field in college.
Collins is a good pick outside the top-50 receivers.
Robert Woods and Noah Brown look like the other two starters based on preseason action.
Woods cratered with the Titans last season, averaging just 1.14 yards per route run and 5.8 yards per target.
Perhaps it was just the situation, but Woods is now 31, well within the range where receivers start to drop off.
Given how much congestion there is in this receiving corps, it is tough to get excited about his fantasy prospects.
Brown is coming off a decent campaign with the Cowboys in which he played ahead of Michael Gallup at times during the season.
Still, he earned a target on just 16.4% of his routes, which is right about his career average.
His 555 yards last season represent 57% of his career total. He is 27 and has been in the league since 2017.
Other than Collins, the real upside bets in this receiving corps are John Metchie and Tank Dell.
Metchie lost his rookie season to a leukemia diagnosis, but he was back to full health by the start of training camp this year.
Preseason usage suggests he is at best No. 4 on the depth chart right now, but the second-round sophomore has some theoretical upside that is lacking in Woods and Brown.
It would make sense for the Texans to see what they have in him if he is back to full health.
The same is true of Dell, a third-round pick this year who made noise in the first preseason game but still looks to be buried a bit on the depth chart.
Dell had a hyper-productive college career at Houston, amassing 199 catches for 2,727 yards and 29 touchdowns over his final two seasons.
He could bring some much-needed playmaking to the receiver group if given the opportunity.
The real No. 1 option in the passing game might end up being Dalton Schultz, who was signed away from the Cowboys in free agency.
Schultz has been somewhat volume-reliant throughout his career, averaging 1.38 receiving fantasy points per target over five seasons. That would have ranked 13th among qualifying tight ends last season.
The good news is he could get that volume given the projected game scripts for this team and the lack of an established No. 1 at receiver.
He is not an exciting pick, but Schultz should operate on the fringes of the TE1 tier all season.
2022 Texans Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 377 (28th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.1 (31st)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 3.9 (31st)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 70% (26th)
2023 Texans Running Game Preview:
The Texans will face the ninth-toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Dameon Pierce, Devin Singletary
- OL: Laremy Tunsil, Kendrick Green, Jarrett Patterson, Shaq Mason, Tytus Howard
Through 10 weeks last season, Dameon Pierce was third in the NFL in carries (165) and fifth in rushing yards (722).
The downside is he had just three rushing scores over that span due to the Houston offensive environment and was averaging 2.4 catches per game.
He then rushed for 167 yards the next four weeks before being shut down for the season.
Over that front stretch at his best, Pierce had accounted for 79.7% of the Houston rushing attempts.
It is unlikely he will handle that big of a workload again after the Texans added Devin Singletary in free agency, but it is promising Pierce played the vast majority of his first–team snaps in the preseason.
The other concern for Pierce is his usage in the passing game.
He averaged just 0.86 yards per route run and 4.2 yards per target despite catching 30 passes in 13 games last season.
He ranked 43rd and 48th among 60 qualifying running backs in those two metrics.
Singletary has not been any better as a pass catcher throughout his career, however, so Pierce may get another shot at the receiving work again this season, although the Texans also kept Mike Boone and Dare Ogunbowale on the roster.
A starting running back in a questionable offense with real competition for carries and questions about his usage in the passing game, Pierce is a stereotypical dead zone running back.
As for Singletary, unless he establishes himself as the passing down option, it is tough to see standalone fantasy value, and he might not have that even if he gets the third-down job.
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