As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, Michael Wilson, James Conner, and every other notable Cardinal, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Without Kyler Murray for the final four games last season, Marquise Brown struggled to a 1.04 yards per route run mark, a stunningly low 5.3 yards per target, and caught just 51.9% of his targets.
- Michael Wilson appears poised to open the season as the No. 2 receiver after playing all but one snap with the starters in the second preseason game.
- James Conner dominated the backfield work when he was active last season, seeing 72.6% of the running back carries and earning an 11.6% target share.
2022 Cardinals Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 340 (21st)
- Total Offense: 5,499 (22nd)
- Plays: 1,144 (3rd)
- Offensive TDs: 32 (22nd)
- Points Per Drive: 1.65 (24th)
- EPA+ Per Play: -8.1 (28th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 30.42 seconds (10th)
2023 Cardinals Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Jonathan Gannon
- Offensive Coordinator: Drew Petzing
Bye Kliff Kingsbury, you beautiful master of failing up.
Ex-Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon will take over as head coach after helping lead Philly to the Super Bowl. Gannon tabbed Browns QBs coach Drew Petzing to run his offense.
Petzing is young for a coordinator and has never called plays before. Given he will likely be the “head coach” of the offense under the defensive-minded Gannon, Petzing will need to hit the ground running.
That will be difficult with Kyler Murray expected to miss at least the first half of the season because of a torn ACL.
As for tendencies, there is not a ton to go on.
Petzing has primarily worked for run-heavy offenses in Minnesota and Cleveland. Given that history and the situation at quarterback, projecting that kind of attack makes the most sense.
2022 Cardinals Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 745 (3rd)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 56.2% (7th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -1.6% (12th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 18.8% (12th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 61% (13th)
2023 Cardinals Passing Game Preview:
The Cardinals will face the 12th-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Clayton Tune, Joshua Dobbs
- WR: Marquise Brown
- WR: Michael Wilson, Zach Pascal
- WR: Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch
- TE: Zach Ertz, Trey McBride
I’ll write a bit about each player, but the real preview for this passing game should be, “I don’t know.”
Who will start at quarterback in Week 1?
I don’t know.
When will Kyler Murray return?
I don’t know.
Do the Cardinals even want to win a game this season?
I don’t know.
With Murray on the PUP, which will force him to miss at least the first four games, and Colt McCoy no longer on the roster, the Cardinals will turn to rookie Clayton Tune or Joshua Dobbs, who joined the team on August 24.
A fourth-round pick in the 2017 draft, Dobbs’ only two NFL starts came last season with the Titans.
In perhaps a precursor to this situation, one of those starts came just eight days after he joined Tennessee, a 232-1-1 performance in Week 17. He also started the season finale.
The Cardinals trading for Dobbs instead of just letting Tune start and McCoy back him up suggests the plan is for Dobbs to start eventually.
As for Tune, he completed just 57.6% of his passes for 353 yards, a touchdown, and 6.0 yards per attempt in the preseason.
Not exactly the stuff of legends, but Tune did have a productive college career and offers some ability to make plays with his legs.
The reality is neither of these quarterbacks will be a fantasy factor.
Murray could be once he returns, but:
- No one knows when that will be
- Given he is recovering from a knee injury, his rushing production will likely be diminished
Those two factors make it unappealing to wait on Murray in standard redraft formats.
The real fantasy impact of the Arizona quarterback situation will be how it affects the receiving corps.
With DeAndre Hopkins gone, Marquise Brown is once again the clear No. 1 receiver.
He rode that role to 10.7 targets per game over the first six weeks last season, but that was under a different and likely more pass-heavy coaching staff.
Moreover, without Murray for the final four games last season, Brown struggled to a 1.04 yards per route run mark, a stunningly low 5.3 yards per target, and caught just 51.9% of his targets.
Brown was similarly inefficient without Lamar Jackson during his time with the Ravens (1.03 yards per route run on 263 routes), suggesting this quarterback situation could really hurt him.
Drafting Brown is a bet on target share even in a less pass-heavy offense and a hope Murray returns healthy in the second half of the season.
Third-round rookie Michael Wilson made his presence felt in training camp and the preseason, and he appears poised to open the season as the No. 2 receiver after playing all but one snap with the starters in the second preseason game.
Wilson did not have an impressive college career in large part because of injuries, but he showed well at the Senior Bowl in the pre-draft process and has looked like a good pick to this point.
The same quarterback and offense concerns we have for Brown apply to Wilson, and he does not have as set a spot on the depth chart.
Still, his quick ascension makes him a solid late-round flier.
Rondale Moore appears set to serve as the slot receiver after playing ahead of Greg Dortch all preseason.
Moore has not impressed so far in his career, earning 849 yards on 95 catches (8.9 YPR) in two seasons.
That yards per catch average was up to 10.1 last year as his air yards per target climbed to 5.5, but his 1.48 yards per route run was 43rd among all receivers with at least 50 targets last season.
Given his usage, Moore likely needs volume to really hit from a fantasy perspective – he has averaged 1.2 fantasy points per target thus far in his career, which would have ranked 66th last season among qualified receivers.
Maybe he gets that if the Cardinals air it out when they are behind and the questionable quarterbacks check the ball down at a high rate, but there are limited paths to real fantasy value for him.
At tight end, it appeared as if Zach Ertz would be ready to go for Week 1 after being cleared from his torn ACL and MCL in mid-August, but that is once again in question.
Ertz averaged a career-low 1.08 yards per route run last season, earning a target on just 18.4% of his routes, and has not averaged more than seven yards a target since 2018. He was dead last among qualifying tight ends in YAC per reception at 2.77.
He faces similar fantasy concerns as Moore, but his starting hurdle is lower at tight end.
If Ertz is out, sophomore Trey McBride should get a shot.
McBride was even worse from an efficiency standpoint than Ertz last season – 0.84 yards per route run, target on 12.4% of routes – but he averaged more yards per target and showed more juice after the catch than Ertz.
In a clear rebuild, it makes more sense for the Cardinals to see what they have in McBride than playing the veteran. Either way, it probably does not make much fantasy sense to chase this passing game.
2022 Cardinals Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 389 (23rd)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.9 (11th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.22 (27th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 73% (6th)
2023 Cardinals Running Game Preview:
The Cardinals will face the 16th-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: James Conner, Keaontay Ingram, Emari Demercado
- OL: D.J. Humphries, Elijah Wilkinson, Hjalte Froholdt, Will Hernandez, Paris Johnson Jr.
James Conner missed four games last season and has now missed multiple games in every season of his career.
On the bright side, he dominated the backfield work when he was active, seeing 72.6% of the running back carries and earning an 11.6% target share.
That usage was good enough for an RB9 points per game finish for Conner last season.
Without any additions behind him, there is not much reason for that usage to change, making him look like a value as the RB26 in Underdog drafts.
There are reasons he is that low in drafts, however.
First, as mentioned above he has a long injury history.
Second, already a bottom-half offense last season, the Cardinals will likely be even worse this year, limiting his touchdown opportunities. And Conner went over his expected touchdown total last season already.
Third, despite that RB9 points per game finish last season, Conner was the RB15 or worse in eight of 13 games.
If he plays enough games, Conner will likely finish above his current draft slot in the season-ending standings.
Still, he might not be a fantasy back that wins weeks unless the offense takes off with Kyler Murray late in the season.
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