Coach's Picks: Best Bets Against The Spread, NFL Week 6

Each week throughout the 2023 NFL Season, coach Kevin Kelley will give a coach's perspective and provide analysis for a few games against the spread.

Went 1-1 last week but not the way I thought it would be.

I have to be better than that and not get swayed by what my eyes see and stick with the numbers.

But on to Week 6.

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Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Spread Prediction:

Look for the Minnesota Vikings to cover the spread as 3-point road favorites and for the game to go Over 44 points.

» Bet the Vikings -3 and Over 44 points now

Why I like the Vikings to cover the spread vs. the Bears in Week 6:

I do not like picking a total and a side in the same game but I have one again.

Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings come into the week needing a win. Justin Jefferson is out for at least 4 weeks. Trade rumors are swirling. Dalvin Cook plays for another team.

But the Vikings are still laying 3 points at Chicago and those hapless Bears. The Bears, coming off a win against Washington, with 10 days rest, and Justin Fields having maybe his best game ever, should be able to develop some momentum and have extra time for a game plan.

Minnesota comes in ranked No. 17 overall in DVOA with the offense ranked No. 12 and the defense ranked #19. Chicago comes in ranked #29 with the offense ranked No. 24 and the defense No. 31, just ahead of the Broncos, who may have the worst defense in the history of the world right now.

I mentioned that Dalvin Cook is missing. Even with that adjustment, that No. 12 still puts them ahead of teams we think better of on offense like the Jaguars, Cowboys, and Bengals.

I know that Justin Jefferson is responsible for a lot of catches and yards, but an interview with Cousins pointed me to take a look at this. Defenses are a little more predictable with Jefferson not in the game because people will try crazy stuff with him on the field.

That certainly isn't’ suggesting they are better off without him. But he was asked what is a difference that he would notice without Jefferson.

On offense for the Vikings, Cousins is having a nice year averaging right under 300 yards per game passing with 13 TDs and 4 interceptions. He takes care of the ball better than most, is really good on play action, and is THE BEST in on-time throws.

The Vikings need to play and live that way. That is when they are at their best.

T.J. Hockenson got his second-most targets of the year last week against Kansas City, and I look for even more with Jefferson being out. I am also a fan of Jordan Addison, and he got the most targets he has had all year last week.

Cousins is very comfortable with the supporting cast of Jefferson, so with him out, at least for one game against the team with a defense that gave up 24 points in the second half to lose against the Broncos, I think the Vikings reach their highest number of points this year.

The Bears lowest total given up in their first 4 games was 27. That included inept offenses like Green Bay, Denver, and Tampa. I also have a theory where I think the first game a star is out, someone really steps up and takes over that role. I think that is Addison or Hockenson this week.

I wish they had a better run game but I like that they still play action pass a lot anyway. The Bears rank No. 31 in yards per pass attempt, and I don’t think that changes Sunday.

When Minnesota is on defense, Justin Fields is No. 25 at quarterback accuracy coming into the week. He has thrown an interception in four out of five games this year. He has been sacked a MINIMUM of three times in every game this year (which are drive killers).

I said when he got drafted he would not be good until he got a fantastic play caller and a quarterback coach who could fix some issues he has. Neither of those has happened.

The Vikings are giving up considerably fewer yards and have played some really good offenses in the Chiefs, Chargers, and Eagles, who are Nos. 5, 6, and 7 in offensive DVOA.

I will say the one concern is wide receiver D.J. Moore, who had 8 catches for 230 yards and 3 TDs last week. Fields has almost a 100 QBR when throwing to him. But a couple of those catches last week should have been tackled for a few yards gained, and they turned into misses and Moore running like the wind. That will not happen again this week.

No one else on that team gets me excited. Cole Kmet is solid but not great. Name their running back. Most can’t name him, and he isn’t going to scare anyone either. So the Vikings just need to make sure Moore doesn’t beat them, and they could have a great game on defense.

The strength of the Bears offense, if they have one, is their run game, and Minnesota is No. 5 in yards per attempt on defense.

I think there's no way that Chicago can have a good game on defense. Cousins and coach Kevin O’Connell are too smart on offense. I do think that the Vikings offense shows off a bit against this defense of Chicago, which has given up 19 touchdowns this year, which is more than the Saints, Ravens, and Buccaneers together.

Minnesota -3 AND Over 44 are the two plays this week.