The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Bills and Patriots.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -8.5 | Spread | 8.5 | ||
| 25.0 | Implied Total | 16.5 | ||
| 28.8 | 3 | Points/Gm | 12.0 | 31 |
| 14.8 | 3 | Points All./Gm | 25.3 | 24 |
| 56.3 | 17 | Plays/Gm | 54.0 | 16 |
| 71.0 | 4 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 68.0 | 19 |
| 6.0 | 2 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.5 | 29 |
| 5.5 | 22 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 8 |
| 43.09% | 14 | Rush% | 38.68% | 27 |
| 56.91% | 19 | Pass% | 61.32% | 6 |
| 41.85% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 47.03% | 29 |
| 58.15% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 52.97% | 4 |
- The Bills have won and covered four straight games against New England.
- The Patriots are the only team in the league that is averaging fewer than a point per drive (0.99).
- The Bills are averaging 2.63 points per drive, third in the league.
- Buffalo is fourth in points allowed per drive (1.30).
- New England has scored on a league-low 18.3% of their offensive possessions.
- New England is third in the NFL in red zone touchdown rate (70.0%) but is 31st in red zone possessions (10).
- The Bills have forced a takeaway on 20.3% of opponent possessions, the highest rate in the league.
- The Patriots have forced a takeaway on a league-low 4.3% of opponent possessions.
- New England is last in the NFL in explosive rushing yardage per game (17.5).
- Buffalo is 31st in the league in explosive rushing yards allowed per game (82.9).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday Night.
The team and Allen have downplayed the injury, but it was to his throwing shoulder. Based on his history,
Allen will try to play through anything should he be cleared, so we will keep an eye on things throughout the week but enter with expectations that Allen will play on Sunday.
Allen is coming off his lowest scoring since Week 1, setting season-lows in passing yardage (169 yards) and yards per pass attempt (5.6 Y/A).
He once again had wonky splits using play action.
With play action, Allen was 10-of-14 on Sunday Night. Without it, he was 9-of-16 passing.
For the season now, Allen is first in the NFL in completion rate (80.0%) and yards per pass attempt (11.9 Y/A) with six touchdowns and zero interceptions using play action.
Without the use of play action, Allen is seventh in completion rate (68.7%), but tumbles down to 21st in yards per pass attempt (6.2 Y/A) with seven touchdowns and all six of his interceptions.
Allen has been good in this matchup.
He has been a QB1 scorer against New England in four of his past five games with the lone exception over that span being the “wind game” in 2021.
He has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in all of those games outside of that windy Monday Night game.
In two starts against the Patriots last season, Allen was QB12 (16.9 points) and QB3 (21.8 points).
The Patriots have played Allen aggressively. They were in single-high looks for 54.1% of his dropbacks and played man coverage for 30.6% of the snaps last season in this matchup.
Allen’s shoulder issue does place some volatility into the equation, but that is only a true impact on how you are handling him in DFS. If he is playing on Sunday, he is in your lineups.
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