The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the 49ers and Vikings on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| San Francisco | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | Spread | 6.5 | ||
| 25.25 | Implied Total | 18.75 | ||
| 30.7 | 2 | Points/Gm | 21.5 | 17 |
| 14.5 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 22.5 | 21 |
| 58.3 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 55.7 | 25 |
| 62.0 | 12 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.7 | 27 |
| 6 | 3 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 6 |
| 4.5 | 3 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 12 |
| 53.08% | 1 | Rush% | 31.13% | 32 |
| 46.92% | 32 | Pass% | 68.87% | 1 |
| 32.61% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 45.54% | 25 |
| 67.39% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 54.46% | 8 |
- San Francisco has scored 67.9% of the total points in their games, the highest rate in the league.
- The 49ers have led for a league-high 70.8% of their offensive snaps.
- Minnesota has led for 13.8% of their snaps, 29th in the league.
- Opposing teams are averaging 56.0 offensive touches per game against Minnesota, the most in the league.
- Opponents are averaging 6.3 plays per drive against Minnesota, the second-most in the league.
- The 49ers are allowing 25.3 yards per drive, fourth in the league.
- 22.8% of the passing plays against San Francisco have resulted in a first down or touchdown, second in the league.
- Minnesota is one of two remaining teams (Pittsburgh being the other) without a rushing touchdown on the season.
- 17.2% of the Minnesota first downs have been gained via rushing, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Brock Purdy: Many have been waiting for it to happen, but Purdy finally turned in a dud last week. Ironically, it followed a week in which he quieted many doubters.
Purdy was 12-of-27 (44.4%) for 125 yards (4.6 Y/A) with a touchdown and his first interception of the season.
He was pressured on a league-high 50% of his dropbacks in Week 6, something that has always given Purdy issues early in his career and something I have highlighted regularly if you follow our work here on the site.
Under pressure on Sunday, Purdy was 4-of-12 for 45 yards.
There will be a litany of excuses made based on the Cleveland defense, the weather, and both Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey exiting the game, but Purdy himself had a 22.2% inaccurate throw rate, his highest rate in a game for his early career.
Purdy has built up enough goodwill to excuse a poor performance, so we do not need to go deep into the well of assigning blame.
What we care about is preventing it from becoming a trend.
This is a matchup made for Purdy’s strengths.
Minnesota is 22nd in pressure rate (32.3%) and 28th in non-blitz pressure rate (26.3%).
They blitz at a league-high 57.3% clip because they cannot get pressure without it, but they are also 28th in the league in pressure rate (36.8%) when they do blitz.
When Purdy has been kept clean, he is averaging 9.9 yards per pass attempt (second in the league) with six touchdowns and one interception.
When he has been blitzed but not pressured on those blitzes, he is 26-of-35 (74.3%) for 311 yards (8.9 Y/A) with a 120.1 rating.
Minnesota is allowing opposing passers to complete 75.1% of their passes (31st), but those quarterbacks average just 6.4 air yards per pass attempt (second lowest) due to all of the blitzes and zone coverage played behind it.
That will give the San Francisco playmakers (the ones available at least) opportunities to showcase their YAC ability.
Despite the down week, Purdy is still on the board as a fringe QB1 for Monday Night Football.
Kirk Cousins: We were wondering how Cousins would be impacted by the loss of Justin Jefferson, and he ended last week as QB24 (8.7 points) against a Chicago defense we had been picking on to open the year.
Cousins averaged a season-low 5.8 yards per pass attempt.
On 50 dropbacks with Jefferson off the field this season, Cousins is averaging 6.1 yards per attempt, which would be 28th in the league if it were sticky for the full season.
Things do not get easier here for Cousins against a San Francisco defense that is fourth in the NFL in pressure rate (41.0%), third in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.5 Y/A), fourth in touchdown rate (2.1%), and third in passing points allowed per game (8.6).
Cousins is only in play for 2QB formats.
Running Back
49ers RBs: Christian McCaffrey suffered an injured oblique on Sunday and was forced from the game.
The 49ers are “hopeful” that CMC can play this Monday, but for a team with aspirations that are much larger than Monday night, we will have to follow his status throughout the week.
With the game being on Monday, it throws an extra wrench into things, so this is a situation we hope is resolved before Sunday.
Kyle Shanahan praised Jordan Mason’s play in relief of McCaffrey the past two weeks, but it did sound like Elijah Mitchell would be the direct replacement for McCaffrey if the lead back is unable to play.
Shanahan implied that Mason received his work last week due to Mitchell failing to log practice time heading into Sunday.
Either way, both San Francisco reserves should be rostered. Neither back is McCaffrey, but we have seen both backs be effective, especially Mitchell going back to when the job was his before acquiring CMC.
If we do not get McCaffrey, Mitchell is a boom-or-bust RB2, dinged by the potential that the rug can still get pulled on us.
Minnesota has been solid against the run this season.
They are allowing 3.7 yards per carry to running backs (11th) while they are also second in receiving points allowed per game (4.9) to backfields.
Alexander Mattison: Mattison only managed 72 yards on 22 touches Sunday against the Bears, but he reclaimed a full share of the Minnesota backfield after his usage waned the first two games with Cam Akers.
Mattison handled a season-high 91.7% (22-of-24) backfield touches after a season-low 55.6% rate in Week 5.
Mattison has turned into a viable back-end RB2 based on his floor. We have not gotten much ceiling. He has had just one RB1 scoring week, but also just one week outside of the top 24.
This is a tough spot to expect a ceiling outcome.
The 49ers are allowing 8.8 rushing points per game (ninth) to backfields, but if Mattison can make an impact in the passing game, San Francisco is 23rd in receiving points allowed per game (10.2) to the position.
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Wide Receiver
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk secured 4-of-10 targets for 76 yards on Sunday. While not a complete loss, there is a place in the multiverse in which Aiyuk had a massive game.
He put down a potential 60-yard touchdown and was open on the majority of the targets that were part of Purdy’s highest off-target game of his career.
Despite not maxing out the outcome, Aiyuk has now led the 49ers in targets in each of the past three games and in four of his five games played this season.
Among all wide receivers to run 100-plus routes this season, Aiyuk has been targeted on 30.8% of his routes run, which only trails Tyreek Hill (36.6%) and Stefon Diggs (31.3%).
His 3.78 yards per route run is only behind Hill’s 5.06 (which is still not made up).
We generally like to target Aiyuk’s ceiling potential against man coverage defenses, but he is also being targeted on 29.3% of his routes against zone coverage since he is operating as the frontman in this passing game.
San Francisco could be without Deebo Samuel on Monday night, something that has always steered targets in Aiyuk’s direction.
Aiyuk has now run 137 routes without Samuel on the field and Purdy under center. He has a team-high 28.4% of the targets on those routes with 2.88 yards per route run.
Regardless of whether Samuel plays or not, Aiyuk is a fringe WR1 for fantasy and gets a boost should Samuel be absent.
