The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 10 matchup between the Cardinals and Falcons.
Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | Arizona | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
| 22.0 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 18.4 | 25 | Points/Gm | 16.8 | 28 |
| 21.3 | 18 | Points All./Gm | 26.7 | 27 |
| 66.4 | 6 | Plays/Gm | 61.1 | 23 |
| 62.2 | 12 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.8 | 22 |
| 5.2 | 16 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 26 |
| 4.9 | 5 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 24 |
| 45.15% | 7 | Rush% | 43.45% | 13 |
| 54.85% | 26 | Pass% | 56.55% | 20 |
| 44.64% | 21 | Opp. Rush % | 47.68% | 29 |
| 55.36% | 12 | Opp. Pass % | 52.32% | 4 |
- The Falcons have a league-low -58 point differential on passing plays this season.
- 89.5% (17-of-19) of the touchdowns against Atlanta have come via passing, the highest rate in the league.
- 53.3% (8-of-15) of Arizona touchdowns have been via passing, 24th in the league.
- Arizona is now averaging more yards per rushing play (4.8) than passing play (4.7).
- Arizona has been outscored by a league-high 88 points in the second half of games this season. The next closest team (Carolina) has been outscored by 47 points.
- The Cardinals are averaging a league-low 0.96 points per drive in the second half this season.
- 8.7% of Arizona's plays on offense have been inside of the red zone, the lowest rate in the league.
- 20.6% of the plays run against the Cardinals have come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league.
- The Falcons have now converted 52.9% (9-of-17) of their goal-to-go opportunities for touchdowns, 30th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Kyler Murray: The Cardinals kept Murray out last week, but with his 21-day window closing it is finally time we see him on the football field.
Murray has been ramping up at practice the past two weeks.
Murray had surgery on his ACL and torn meniscus on January 27th, so we are just past the nine-month mark in his recovery.
Arizona will need more out of Murray moving forward on his contract than what they received in 2022 when he was healthy.
Out of 33 qualified passers for league passer rating, Murray was 17th in EPA per dropback (0.02) and 23rd in success rate (42.7%).
He posted early-career lows in yards per pass attempt (6.1 Y/A), yards per completion (9.1 yards), and touchdown rate (3.6%).
Murray particularly struggled to push the ball down the field last season, an area where he had previously had success.
On throws 10 yards or further downfield, Murray completed just 42.1% of his passes (28th). His 40.4% success rate on those passes was ahead of only Carson Wentz, Kenny Pickett, and Zach Wilson.
On throws 20 or more yards downfield, Murray completed just 24.5% of his passes, ahead of only Jimmy Garoppolo.
Murray was just 1-of-14 (7.1%) on throws 30 or more yards downfield, the lowest rate in the league.
That 2022 performance was far away from his output in 2021.
In 2021, he completed 53.1% of his passes 10-plus yards downfield (sixth), 47.3% of his passes on throws 20 or more yards downfield (third), and 42.9% of his throws 30-plus yards downfield (fifth).
For as bad as things were for Murray in 2022 as a passer, he was still the QB9 in points per game (18.2) and was a QB1 in seven of his 10 full games played.
He did so in part due to 29.8% of his points coming via rushing, something we have to heavily question about remaining intact returning from the ACL injury.
Arizona has been under center for 30.7% of their dropbacks.
For his career, Murray has taken just 9.1% of his dropbacks under center, 40th out of 41 qualifiers.
Under center, Murray is 40-of-89 (44.9%) for 4.7 yards per pass attempt.
We cannot bank on rushing output and this is a totally new system with questionable surrounding talent.
Playing Murray in 1QB leagues takes a step of significant faith.
If you have been holding Murray or are putting him into 2QB lineups, Atlanta is 23rd in terms of pressure rate (31.6%).
They are allowing just 6.5 yards per pass attempt (seventh), but they have allowed a 5.8% touchdown rate (29th). That has them allowing 15.3 passing points per game, which is 26th in the league.
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