The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Saints and Rams on Thursday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | LA Rams | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Spread | -4.0 | ||
| 20.25 | Implied Total | 24.25 | ||
| 22.1 | 12 | Points/Gm | 23.4 | 9 |
| 19.1 | 6 | Points All./Gm | 22.1 | 19 |
| 66.2 | 5 | Plays/Gm | 64.6 | 13 |
| 62.6 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.9 | 17 |
| 5.1 | 21 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 8 |
| 5 | 11 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 20 |
| 42.50% | 17 | Rush% | 42.70% | 15 |
| 57.50% | 16 | Pass% | 57.30% | 18 |
| 44.47% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 41.12% | 12 |
| 55.53% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 58.88% | 21 |
- The Rams are averaging 4.7 plays of 20 or more yards per game, fourth in the league.
- The Saints are averaging 3.1 plays of 20 or more yards per game, 25th in the league.
- New Orleans is the only team in the league that has not had a running back have a run of 20 or more yards on the season.
- The Rams have scored a touchdown on 28.8% of their drives over their past five games, fourth in the NFL.
- The Saints have allowed a touchdown on 15.5% of opponent possessions, fourth in the league.
- 26.7% of the drives against New Orleans have reached the red zone or scored prior, the second-lowest rate in the league.
- 42.9% of the drives against New Orleans have failed to gain a first down, second in the league behind the Browns (50.5%).
- The Rams have allowed 2.9 sacks plus turnovers per game, third in the league behind San Francisco (2.7) and Buffalo (2.8).
- The Rams are averaging 3.0 sacks plus takeaways per game on defense, ahead of only Carolina (2.2).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford: Stafford has ripped off four consecutive top-10 scoring weeks, throwing 12 touchdowns to just one interception over that span.
Stafford has an 8.3% touchdown rate (second in the league) over that period after a 2.9% touchdown rate prior (26th).
Sure, last week’s QB10 week came at home against Washington, but he also has spike weeks against Cleveland and Baltimore on his resume during that period.
I would prefer to use Stafford as a floor-based QB2 over a spike-week option in 1QB leagues, but those performances against Cleveland and Baltimore provide a softer landing pad here for gamers who are continuing to ride with him based on his best stretch of the season.
The Saints have allowed more than two touchdowns in just one game this season.
They are fourth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.334) and third in passing points allowed per game (10.9).
New Orleans has allowed just two top-10 scoring weeks to quarterbacks since Week 5. In those games, the passers added 10.4 and 5.9 rushing points, something we are not getting from Stafford these days.
Derek Carr: In a week in which he was working with a depleted receiving corps, Carr had his best fantasy day of the season on Sunday, closing as QB6 (20.3 points).
Carr completed 23-of-28 passes for 218 yards and a season-high three touchdowns through the air.
When the blitz-heavy Giants did not send heat at Carr, he ate them alive. On 15 dropbacks in which New York did not blitz, Carr completed 14-of-15 passes for 139 yards and two of his touchdowns.
That was Carr’s first QB1 scoring week since Week 9, so we are still handling him as a QB2 for fantasy.
If you are playing him in 2QB formats or looking for an avenue to upside in single-game DFS, the Rams have allowed 18.0 passing points per game over their past four games.
They have allowed a 5.4% touchdown rate (24th) over that span after a 3.0% rate prior (fifth).
Much like their own quarterback, they have had some regression in the touchdown department through the air.
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Running Back
Kyren Williams: Williams continued to soak up one of the league's best workloads at his position and took advantage of a great matchup on Sunday.
Williams turned a career-high 32 touches into 155 yards with a touchdown. He did lose two fumbles, but even with those, he leads all running backs in EPA per carry (0.11).
Williams is averaging 5.1 yards per carry (fifth among all running backs with 100 or more rushes), a 48.9% success rate (first), and a first down or touchdown on 28.5% of those runs (third).
Since returning to the lineup in Week 12, Williams leads all running backs in snaps (219), touches (106), and yards from scrimmage (497) to go along with four touchdowns.
Williams is a front-end RB1 for fantasy with arguably the best workload outside of Christian McCaffrey.
He will look to continue his breakout season against an all-or-nothing New Orleans run defense.
The Saints have not allowed a 100-yard rusher on the season and have a 66.7% success rate against running back runs (ninth).
But they also have allowed a run of 10 or more yards on a league-high 14.6% of the runs against them.
Alvin Kamara: Kamara has been a great draft pick for those who took on the three-game suspension that he opened the season with.
With 21 touches for 110 total yards on Sunday, Kamara has hit 100 yards in six of his past nine games.
Since returning to the field, he is averaging 97.8 total yards per game, fifth in the league among running backs.
Only Christian McCaffrey has more overall touches (230) than Kamara (229) since Week 4.
He leads the position in targets (78), receptions (68), and receiving yards (446) over that span.
We are particularly interested in Kamara’s receiving role here as a road underdog.
Kamara has been an RB1 scorer in five of the six games that New Orleans has lost since his return.
In those games, Kamara is averaging 8.2 receptions for 50.2 yards per game. He has 83.2% of the backfield touches in those games.
If the implied game script plays out here, Kamara should have a sturdy floor as a volume-based RB1.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp: After a mid-season disappearance fueled by a pair of ankle injuries, Kupp appears to be back in our hearts as a fantasy WR1 again.
Pulling in all eight of his targets for 111 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, Kupp has led the Rams in targets and receptions in each of the past three games.
Kupp was gifted a 62-yard touchdown by the Washington defense a week ago, but it was his third straight game reaching the end zone.
Things will inherently be tougher here than versus the worst pass defense in the NFL.
The Saints are third in the NFL in yards allowed per target (6.9) to wide receivers.
The good news is that Kupp just faced the top two teams in that department in Cleveland and Baltimore, and he found the end zone in both of those games while leading the team in opportunities.
Kupp also plays 62.5% of his snaps in the slot, which should aid him here.
48.6% of the wide receiver receptions against New Orleans have come through the slot, the third-highest rate in the league.
The Saints are also playing man coverage on 36.1% of their snaps, fourth in the league.
Kupp has been targeted on 32.7% of his routes against man coverage as opposed to 20.5% against zone coverage.
Puka Nacua: Nacua was the Ram who was left a bit on the outside last week, catching 5-of-8 targets for 50 yards. He also rushed two times for three yards.
Nacua still had 25.0% of the team targets, but his 13.5% share of the air yards was a season-low.
His 2.9 air yards per target were by far his shortest of the season. His previous low mark was a 5.0 average depth of target back in Week 6.
Nacua does not have the same red zone equity as Cooper Kupp but is still a floor-based WR2 here.
Kupp has been targeted on 27.1% of his routes in the red zone compared to a 19.7% rate for Nacua.
The Saints have been stronger on the outside, where Nacua is playing 68.8% of his snaps.
New Orleans is second in the NFL in points allowed per game (13.1) to outside wide receivers.
Even with Marshon Lattimore off the field, the Saints have allowed a league-low 47.1% completion rate to outside wide receivers.
Saints WRs: With Chris Olave sidelined on Sunday, the Saints had Rashid Shaheed run 23 routes (76.7% of the dropbacks), followed by A.T. Perry (15), Lynn Bowden (13), Keith Kirkwood (10), and Marquez Callaway (three).
Kirkwood caught a touchdown pass, but no New Orleans wide receiver caught more than three passes or cleared 36 yards.
With New Orleans playing on a short week, Olave’s status is up in the air again this week.
Dennis Allen stated the hope is that Olave will do more on Tuesday. We will follow his status up until Thursday.
If Olave is back, he does carry added volatility for re-injury or playing a reduced snap count, but he will be hard to get away from for season-long gamers as a volatile top-20 wide receiver.
Shaheed carries some intrigue as a splash-play-dependent WR3 with or without Olave, although he gets a bump if the latter occurs.
The Rams have allowed five touchdowns to wide receivers over the past two weeks with three of those coming on throws 20 or more yards downfield.
Demarcus Robinson: Robinson only had three targets on Sunday, but he had catches of 21 and 23 yards, with the latter one being his third touchdown in as many games.
Robinson has run a route on 97.7% and 100% of the dropbacks the past two weeks with Tutu Atwell in concussion protocol.
On a short week, Robinson can operate as the WR3 again in this offense but carries more single-game DFS appeal as a touchdown-or-bust swing for fantasy.
Tight End
Tyler Higbee: Higbee was back in the lineup after missing Week 14, catching 4-of-5 targets for 36 yards.
Higbee has been a TE1 scorer in one of his nine games played since Kupp returned to the lineup.
He is a TE2 and best used as a single-game DFS play, but the Saints have been giving to tight ends along the way this season.
New Orleans has allowed a 7.07% touchdown rate to tight ends (26th) if chasing a touchdown.
Taysom Hill: Returning to the lineup after missing Week 14 with hand and foot injuries, Hill only played 12 offensive snaps, his fewest in a game since the season opener.
Hill had just two offensive touches, his fewest in a game this season.
If Hill is limited through injury, then that only adds another layer of volatility for him as an all-or-nothing fantasy option.
Saints TEs: Both Juwan Johnson and Jimmy Graham caught touchdown passes on Sunday, but no New Orleans tight end ran a route on even 50% of the team dropbacks.
The team rotated in Johnson (43.3%), Foster Moreau (40.0%), and Graham (20.0%).
That type of thin usage has these tight ends as touchdown-chasing options in DFS.
If you are chasing a score, the Rams have allowed seven touchdowns and a 7.14% touchdown rate (27th) to tight ends.
