The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Vikings and Lions.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Detroit | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.0 | Spread | 3.0 | ||
| 25.0 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
| 27.3 | 5 | Points/Gm | 20.7 | 21 |
| 23.6 | 23 | Points All./Gm | 19.2 | 7 |
| 66.9 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 64.1 | 15 |
| 61.0 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.5 | 12 |
| 5.9 | 3 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 11 |
| 5.3 | 19 | Def. Yards/Play | 5 | 10 |
| 43.76% | 11 | Rush% | 38.31% | 28 |
| 56.24% | 22 | Pass% | 61.69% | 5 |
| 41.45% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 39.15% | 7 |
| 58.55% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 60.85% | 26 |
- The Lions (8-0) and Vikings (5-0) are two of the three remaining teams that are undefeated when scoring first.
- 75.8% (47-of-62) of the Detroit scoring plays have been touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- Detroit is averaging 5.2 plays of 20 or more yards per game, second in the NFL behind San Francisco (5.4).
- Minnesota has allowed one run of 20 or more yards this season, the fewest in the NFL.
- The Lions have 14 runs of 20 or more yards, fourth in the NFL.
- Minnesota is allowing 69.7 rushing yards per game at home, second in the league.
- The Vikings have turned the ball over on 16.4% of their drives since losing Kirk Cousins for the season, 31st in the league.
- Detroit is allowing 2.34 points per drive on the road (29th) as opposed to 1.75 points per drive at home (18th).
- Minnesota has had a league-low seven possessions start on the opponent's side of the field.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jared Goff: Goff cruised to lead all quarterbacks in fantasy scoring last week, completing 24-of-34 passes (70.6%) for 278 yards and five touchdowns against a Denver pass defense that was amid a massive turnaround over the previous several weeks.
Goff did not do anything to fan the flames of his splits playing indoors.
Over nine games playing inside this season, Goff has completed 69.4% of his passes for 8.1 yards per pass attempt with 274.0 yards per game to go along with 21 touchdowns.
In five outdoor games, he has completed 63.6% of his passes for 6.5 Y/A with 252.2 yards per game to go with five touchdowns and four interceptions.
Goff will not play outdoors again this regular season.
This is a familiar spot to last week.
Minnesota has allowed one QB1 scoring week since Week 5.
Minnesota was on a heater defensively until the second half last Saturday against Jake Browning.
Browning connected on 20-of-27 passes for 243 yards (9.0 Y/A) with two touchdowns and an interception after the break in Week 15.
We know the Vikings are going to blitz, and we know they are going to play a lot of zone coverage behind the blitz.
Minnesota is blitzing on a league-high 45.7% of dropbacks. They are also playing man coverage on 17.7% of snaps, 26th in the league.
If you are blitzing Goff, you need to get home.
When Goff has been blitzed but not pressured, he is averaging 8.4 Y/A (sixth in the league) with seven passing touchdowns and zero interceptions.
When blitzed and pressured, Goff is averaging 6.1 Y/A (16th) with two touchdowns and four interceptions.
The Vikings are also playing Cover-2 at the highest rate in the league (23.1%).
Goff has had issues with Cover-2, ranking dead last in the league with a 46.0 rating versus the coverage.
He has completed just 55.2% of his passes for 4.7 Y/A with zero touchdowns and three interceptions against Cover-2.
But the Vikings also play Cover-3 39.6% of the time, seventh in the league.
Against Cover-3, Goff has been a different animal.
Only C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy have a higher rating against Cover-3 than Goff (107.2), averaging 8.9 Y/A with a league-high 15 touchdowns. The next closest quarterback has eight touchdowns against Cover-3.
I do not believe Goff will run it back as the QB1 in overall scoring this week. Last week was just the third time this season that he has been a top-six scorer.
I do have some respect for the body of work that this Minnesota defense has in limiting spike weeks.
Goff’s Cover-2 splits are concerning but counter-balanced by his amazing splits indoors, against Cover-3, and when he is blitzed and not pressured.
Even giving a nod to the Minnesota defense, Goff has shown that he is in the weekly mix as a QB1 for fantasy.
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