The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Eagles and Giants on Christmas Day.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| NY Giants | Rank | @ | Philadelphia | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | Spread | -10.5 | ||
| 16.5 | Implied Total | 27.0 | ||
| 13.5 | 31 | Points/Gm | 25.6 | 7 |
| 24.1 | 25 | Points All./Gm | 24.4 | 26 |
| 61.8 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 66.1 | 6 |
| 63.6 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.9 | 26 |
| 4.2 | 31 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 12 |
| 5.6 | 26 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 22 |
| 43.70% | 12 | Rush% | 46.22% | 5 |
| 56.30% | 21 | Pass% | 53.78% | 28 |
| 44.11% | 22 | Opp. Rush % | 34.58% | 2 |
| 55.89% | 11 | Opp. Pass % | 65.42% | 31 |
- Games in Philadelphia are averaging a league-high 59.7 combined points per game.
- The Eagles are averaging 2.86 points per drive at home, third in the league behind Dallas and Miami.
- The Giants are allowing 2.56 points per drive on the road, 31st in the league.
- The Giants are averaging 74.4 fewer passing yards per game than their opponent, the worst margin in the league.
- The Giants have taken 76 sacks, the second-most all-time in a season through 14 games.
- New York has a -51 sack differential. The next closest team (Carolina) is at -32.
- 57.6% of New York's set of downs reach third down, the highest rate in the league. The league average is 48.2%.
- 32.2% of New York's set of downs reach third and long (needing seven or more yards), the highest rate in the league. The league average is 23.0%.
- The Giants have converted 16.7% (19-of-114) of those third and longs, 29th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts (TRUST): Hurts ended Week 15 as QB5 (21.9 points), carried by 82 yards and two more touchdowns on the ground.
Hurts now has 14 rushing touchdowns on the year, matching 2011 Cam Newton for the most in a season by a quarterback.
That rushing production on Monday night masked another anemic passing outing for Hurts, however.
He completed just 54.8% of his passes for 143 yards. His 4.6 yards per pass attempt were a season-low.
He did not throw a touchdown pass for the second week in a row and the third time over his past five games.
After averaging 15.3 passing points per game through nine games, Hurts is averaging 9.5 passing points per game over his past five.
Despite all of those issues throwing the ball, Hurts has been a QB1 in all but one of those games with a top-six scoring week in three of them.
This Giants defense has not often traveled this season. This past week was a continuation of that when Derek Carr carved this unit up for an 82.1% completion rate and three touchdowns in a game without Chris Olave.
On the road, the Giants have allowed a 70.1% completion rate (24th), 8.0 Y/A (25th), and a 5.5% touchdown rate (27th).
They also have a league-worst 2.9% sack rate and a league-low 28.8% pressure rate on the road.
Tommy DeVito: DeVito’s three-game winning streak came to an end in New Orleans last weekend.
He completed 58.8% of his passes for 5.2 Y/A without a touchdown, adding 36 yards rushing.
Ending as QB26 (10.7 points), DeVito has just one QB1 start under his belt over his five weeks as a starter. That came against the Commanders, who we have picked on all season long.
DeVito is a QB2 here on the road attached to an underdog with a team total of just under 17 points.
He does come with some rushing upside, and the Eagles have allowed 18.9 passing points per game (31st) to keep the lights on for a wild card outcome for Christmas DFS.
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Running Back
Saquon Barkley: Barkley has been an all-or-nothing fantasy asset since DeVito took over, finishing as RB38, RB1, RB45, RB4, and RB45 over DeVito’s five starts.
Barkley had 11 touches for 37 yards in New Orleans.
He handled a season-low 57.9% of backfield touches after handling 83.9% over the previous four weeks.
Barkley is a complete boom-or-bust fantasy option at this point.
If you are looking for an angle to play for the upside outcome, the Eagles have fallen apart against backfields of late.
Philadelphia is on a run of surrendering 126, 167, 156, 148, and 128 yards from scrimmage to backfields over their past five games after allowing 82.2 total yards per game to backfields over their opening nine games this season.
D’Andre Swift: After 17 carries for 52 yards over the previous two weeks, Swift rushed 18 times for 74 yards on Monday.
We have seen that if the Eagles are ahead, Swift is going to get opportunities.
As a home favorite with a 27.0-point team total, this is a spot for Swift to accrue touches on the ground.
The matchup is as good as you can look for as well.
The Giants have allowed 4.55 YPC to running backs (29th) and 16.4 rushing points per game (28th) to backs.
This is as good of a layout as you could want for Swift if you have gone back and forth on him based on recent results.
The only things holding Swift back from being a full TRUST is that he does not catch passes and Jalen Hurts has so much touchdown equity near the goal line.
He can have a great game running the ball, but without a touchdown or receptions, it is hard to have a spike week.
Swift only has four rushing touchdowns, and none were from the 1-yard line.
He is averaging a career-low 2.7 receptions per game.
The Eagles did lose guard Landon Dickerson for this game but are expected to have Cam Jurgens back after he missed last week’s game.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown (TRUST): Brown caught 5-of-10 targets for 56 yards on Monday night. He is in a slight drought for fantasy, posting one WR1 scoring week over his past five games.
He has not been bad by any means. We just had a seven-week run before this stretch where he went nuclear and set the expectations so high.
Brown still has double-digit targets in each of his past three games.
If there was a spot to rebound, this would be it.
The Giants blitz at the second-highest rate in the league (42.0%) and are playing man coverage on 38.0% of pass plays (fourth).
No player has more receiving yards against the blitz this season than Brown (449).
Brown has 45.0% of the team's targets and 52.8% of the team’s air yards against the blitz this season.
Against man coverage, Brown has a league-high 49.1% of the team targets and 53.0% of the air yards.
Only CeeDee Lamb has more yards this season (497) against man coverage than Brown (457).
DeVonta Smith: Smith caught all five of his targets for 50 yards on Monday in Seattle.
Smith has now been the WR33 and WR39 over the past two weeks after a five-game streak as a top-20 scorer.
Smith has had target shares of 35.7% and 16.7% since Dallas Goedert returned to the field, so one game running hot and one cold with opportunity.
He was completely uncovered for a potential touchdown on Monday, but Jalen Hurts went elsewhere with the ball.
The Giants are not a matchup to be scared of for gamers using Smith as a WR2 or in DFS, but with Brown’s splits being so gaudy against man coverage, Smith’s splits are impacted.
Smith has been targeted on 16.5% of his routes with 1.22 yards per route run against man coverage as opposed to a target on 19.8% of his routes with 2.00 yards per route run against zone overage.
Brown has out-target Smith 58-to-25 when Hurts has been blitzed this season, but Smith does have two touchdowns on those targets.
Giants WRs: This unit has combined for just five WR2 or better scoring weeks this season with zero WR1 scoring weeks.
Outside of Christman Day DFS, this is a group that does not draw much interest outside of matchup-based considerations.
We do know that the Giants have settled in with Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Jalin Hyatt as their primary three wideouts when available, with Isaiah Hodgins picking up the scraps and getting red zone snaps.
Slayton has led the Giants in receiving in half of their games this season despite only having one game reaching 70 yards.
That says it all.
Hyatt has the two highest yardage games for them this season and the only 100-yard game.
Hodgins is the only wide receiver with multiple touchdown receptions.
The Eagles have allowed a league-high 15.6 receptions per game and 24 touchdowns to wide receivers if you are looking for the matchup to be the driver for playing anyone here.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert: Goedert has returned to the lineup with two games of four catches for 30 yards, seeing four and nine targets come his way those weeks.
Goedert has played 10 games this season, finishing as a TE1 scorer in just two.
His 10.2 yards per catch are his lowest in a season since his rookie year in 2018 while his 42.7 yards per game are his fewest since 2019.
Goedert is a fringe TE1/TE2 option at this stage.
The Giants did just allow two touchdowns to tight ends last week to provide a carrot to chase.
They are middle-of-the-pack overall against tight ends, allowing 7.0 yards per target (15th) and a 4.7% touchdown rate (15th) to the position.
Darren Waller: Waller returned to the lineup on Sunday after missing the previous five games with a hamstring injury.
He only ran a route on 47.8% of the dropbacks, but he was targeted 27.3% of his routes, catching 4-of-6 targets for 40 yards.
Waller leads the Giants with a target on 21.0% of his routes this season. When on the field, he is their leading target.
That gives Waller a pulse as a fringe TE1, limited by the quality of targets in this offense.
Shaq Leonard had his snap share rise to 46% on Monday night, but the Eagles have been at the back end of production allowed to tight ends all season.
They are allowing a 75.3% catch rate (25th), 7.4 yards per target (22nd), and 6.5% touchdown rate (24th) to the position.
