The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the 49ers and Ravens on Christmas Day.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Baltimore | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Spread | -5.5 | ||
| 20.25 | Implied Total | 25.75 | ||
| 27.4 | 4 | Points/Gm | 30.4 | 3 |
| 16.1 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 16.7 | 2 |
| 64.4 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 59.3 | 29 |
| 65.2 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.1 | 9 |
| 5.8 | 4 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.8 | 1 |
| 4.4 | 1 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 12 |
| 50.83% | 1 | Rush% | 49.76% | 2 |
| 49.17% | 32 | Pass% | 50.24% | 31 |
| 36.47% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 33.68% | 1 |
| 63.53% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 66.32% | 32 |
- Over the past 12 weeks, the 49ers are first in the NFL in point differential (+161 points) while the Ravens are second (+140 points).
- San Francisco has led for 65.1% of their offensive snaps, the highest rate in the league.
- Baltimore has led for 64.8% of their offensive snaps, second in the league.
- Baltimore has led for 82.7% of their offensive snaps in the second half, the highest rate in the league.
- San Francisco has led for 78.1% of their second-half snaps on offense, second in the league.
- The 49ers have led by double-digit points on 35.8% of their offensive plays, the highest rate in the league.
- San Francisco is averaging a league-high 8.8 yards per passing play, a full yard over the second team (Miami).
- The Ravens are allowing a league-low 4.5 yards per passing play.
- San Francisco is averaging a league-high 7.3 yards per play on first down.
- Baltimore is allowing 4.6 yards per play on first down, third in the league.
- The Ravens lead the NFL in running plays of 10 or more yards (62) while San Francisco is second (61).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Brock Purdy: Purdy coasted to a QB4 (25.7 points) scoring week on Sunday against Arizona.
Throwing four more touchdown passes, Purdy has now thrown three or more touchdowns in four of his past six games after doing that once over the opening eight games this season.
The 49ers have a 51.9% dropback rate in the red zone since their Week 9 bye (15th) after a 38.1% dropback rate in the red zone before (30th).
It is narrative-driven, but there certainly has been the feel of San Francisco intentionally squashing any concerns with Purdy that were brought up before the bye.
That has ramped Purdy’s numbers up not only for the MVP race but for more importantly (let’s be real here) fantasy football.
Purdy has now gone from efficient back-end QB1 to a fantasy lid lifter. He has been a top-six scorer in five of his six games since the bye after one top-six scoring week before.
He also has had an amazing schedule for production since the bye.
This Monday will be his first legit test since the front half of the season.
Purdy leads all quarterbacks in passing points per attempt (0.661). The Ravens are allowing the fewest passing points per attempt (0.290).
Purdy has faced just two other teams in the top 10 in passing points allowed per attempt this season, Minnesota and Cleveland.
In those games, he was QB20 and QB25.
Purdy did throw for 9.1 Y/A against Minnesota. Cleveland was the only true stinker he has had this year, throwing for 4.6 Y/A and completing 44.4% of his passes.
The Ravens have allowed just two QB1 scoring weeks this season.
We can discount Purdy, but we are also just two weeks removed from Matthew Stafford throwing three touchdowns against Baltimore on the road.
I do not believe I would outright stream for Purdy in 1QB leagues in many if any cases, but we will discount him this week based on the matchup.
The key for Baltimore may just be getting ahead early since Purdy has not been tasked with playing from behind often this season.
Five of Purdy’s seven interceptions have come while behind on the scoreboard.
Purdy has only 52 total dropbacks this season trailing in the second half, but his 69.7 rating trailing after halftime is 25th in the league.
Lamar Jackson: Jackson ended Week 15 as QB9 (18.5 points), his third top-10 scoring week over the past four weeks.
Jackson was anchored by 97 rushing yards, his highest total on the season since Week 3.
As a passer, Jackson completed 58.3% of his passes for 171 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
That was the third game in a row that Jackson completed fewer than 60% of his passes and the fourth time over his past five games.
Jackson has more lows than Purdy does, finishing in the back half of weekly scoring five times this year.
The only team allowing fewer passing points per attempt than the 49ers (0.294) is the Ravens.
The only other team in the top 10 of that category that Jackson has faced this year is the Browns, closing those weeks out as QB3 and QB18.
Like Purdy, we have almost no sample of Jackson being pressed to play from behind, but that is the worst of his sample.
Jackson has just 44 dropbacks this season trailing in the second half, but he is averaging 5.8 Y/A on those plays, 28th in the league.
As with Purdy, there is absolutely matchup volatility here, but Jackson still has outs with his legs that most passers do not.
If I were asked if I would outright stream for Jackson in 1QB leagues, this week just does not have the streaming options to go against the upside outcome for Jackson, even if it comes with a lowered probability.
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Running Back
Christian McCaffrey: With 23 touches for 187 yards and three more touchdowns, McCaffrey leads the league in all of those categories this season.
He sits at the front of the league in rushing attempts (244), rushing yards (1,292), touches (301), yards from scrimmage (1,801), and is tied for the league lead in touchdowns (20).
He has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in seven straight games.
If you have McCaffrey, you are riding him as the premier fantasy asset this season.
If you are facing him this week, you are holding out hope that the Ravens provide enough resistance to prevent McCaffrey from single-handedly beating you.
Baltimore has allowed one rushing touchdown to a running back since Week 8.
They have allowed two receiving touchdowns to running backs this season.
They also have allowed over 100 total yards to an individual running back in three of their past five games.
Ravens RBs: With Keaton Mitchell lost for the remainder of the season, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill get a boost in each of their roles, but only Edwards carries viable fantasy appeal due to his touchdown equity in the offense.
Hill has two RB2 or better scoring weeks this season, with both of those games coming with a touchdown.
Hill is a low-ceiling FLEX play.
Edwards is a touchdown-dependent RB2/FLEX.
Before Mitchell came on and started earning opportunities, Edwards was handling 57.5% of the backfield touches playing alongside Hill in tandem.
Edwards has out-touched Hill 15-to-4 inside of the five-yard line.
The only players with more touchdowns from inside of the five-yard line than Edwards (10) are McCaffrey (11) and Raheem Mostert (12).
But in the weeks that Edwards has not scored a touchdown, he is averaging 4.9 points per game with no week higher than RB35.
Wide Receiver
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk was the odd man out on Sunday, catching 3-of-5 targets for 37 yards. It was the first time since Week 7 that Aiyuk did not have 100 yards or a touchdown in a game.
Despite Purdy thriving and throwing more touchdowns, we are still asking Aiyuk to do a lot on limited opportunities.
Aiyuk is second among all wide receivers in yards per route run (3.05), but he also is running 27.5 routes per game (WR69) and getting 6.6 targets per game (WR37).
That is going to lead to weeks like last week and is also why Aiyuk only has three WR1 scoring weeks on the season.
Aiyuk is one of the toughest weekly wideouts to rank because there is such a gap between his talent and opportunity.
That said, his ranking does not matter outside of DFS since you are starting him where you have him.
Baltimore is arguably the most diverse defensive unit in the NFL under Mike MacDonald.
They do not give us many tells because they are in the top 10 of usage for just one coverage (Cover-4) this season. They do an abundance of things centered around their opponent.
They have allowed just five WR1 scoring weeks on the season, but we did see three Rams wide receivers log top-24 weeks against them two weeks ago.
Deebo Samuel: This past month has seen Deebo turn back into 2021 Deebo.
Samuel has 31 total touches over his past four games which he turned into 441 total yards and eight touchdowns.
Samuel has scored in each of the past four games with multiple touchdowns in each of the past three weeks.
31.3% of his fantasy points have now come directly from touchdowns, trailing only Courtland Sutton (31.8%) among wide receivers.
As noted above, the Ravens are a diverse defense. They do go to two-high, Cover-4, and Cover-6 defensive looks on 32.6% of their snaps.
That has carried more signal for Samuel, who has been targeted on a team-high 32.9% of his routes against those looks with 3.96 yards per route run.
But 39.1% of those “targets” are also coming behind the line of scrimmage, which makes Samuel so unique.
I do prefer Samuel over Aiyuk in this matchup if debating between the two for DFS.
Zay Flowers: Flowers was not a part of the action on Sunday night, catching 1-of-2 targets for just seven yards.
Flowers ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks, but it was the second time this season that he was targeted on fewer than 10% of his routes.
It was also the fourth time since Week 8 that Flowers has averaged fewer than 1.0 yards per route run.
Flowers has yet to reach 80 yards receiving in a game this season, so we need touchdowns from him in a tough matchup.
He has one WR2 or better scoring week this season without a touchdown.
In his past six games without a touchdown, Flowers has been the WR28, WR68, WR86, WR28, WR44, and WR101.
We know Flowers is going to be the wide receiver that is on the field the most for Baltimore, but he is a volatile WR3 for fantasy.
San Francisco is ninth in points allowed per target to wide receivers (1.62).
Odell Beckham: Beckham was not a part of the plan on Sunday night despite a strong matchup.
He caught 1-of-3 targets for 14 yards in Jacksonville.
Beckham was in route for 59.4% of the team dropbacks, which was right in line with his weekly usage.
He leads the Baltimore wideouts with a target on 23.4% of his routes, but he has not run a route on 60% of the team dropbacks in a game since Week 9.
He was targeted on 15.8% of his routes last week after rates of 41.2%, 41.7%, and 33.3% the previous three weeks.
Beckham is a touchdown-dependent FLEX.
Tight End
George Kittle: Kittle grabbed two of his four targets for 54 yards on Sunday.
It was the fourth straight game in which Kittle has received six or fewer targets and the fifth time over the six games since the bye that he has failed to clear six opportunities in a game.
Kittle is second among tight ends in yards per route run (2.28) and leads the position in routes run per team dropback (88.4%), but his 5.4 targets per game are 16th at the position.
This is what gives Kittle volatility as a boom-or-bust TE1.
These are the two best defenses in the NFL defending tight ends since they have some of the best linebackers in the league.
The Ravens are allowing 6.2 yards per target (second) with a 3.2% touchdown rate (eighth) to the position.
Isaiah Likely: Likely has come out of the bye with strong games of 5-83-1 and 5-70-1 after a 4-4-0 week in his first game without Mark Andrews before the bye.
He has run a route on 87.7% of the dropbacks since Andrews went down.
With his athleticism and in an offense that uses their tight ends, Likely is a weekly TE1.
His past two solid weeks did come in matchups we have been looking to exploit regularly.
This will be a tougher assignment against a San Francisco defense allowing a league-low 6.1 yards per target and 2.8% touchdown rate (fourth) to tight ends.
