The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 18 matchup between the Colts and Texans.
Find a breakdown of every Week 18 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Houston | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Spread | -1.0 | ||
| 23.25 | Implied Total | 24.25 | ||
| 22.1 | 14 | Points/Gm | 23.6 | 10 |
| 20.9 | 13 | Points All./Gm | 24.5 | 27 |
| 64.2 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 64.5 | 10 |
| 63.6 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.6 | 32 |
| 5.4 | 13 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 14 |
| 5.2 | 13 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 18 |
| 40.51% | 23 | Rush% | 42.83% | 14 |
| 59.49% | 10 | Pass% | 57.17% | 19 |
| 42.38% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 45.33% | 27 |
| 57.62% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 54.67% | 6 |
Playoff Scenarios: There are paths to the postseason for both teams if there is a tie on Saturday night, but this one is as easy as it gets.
Whoever wins this game is in the playoffs.
The loser is eliminated from the postseason.
Also, whoever wins this game can win the AFC South and a home game next weekend if the Jaguars lose or tie on Sunday.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud (TRUST): Stroud returned Sunday from a two-game absence in the concussion protocol.
There was a dip in output for fantasy for Stroud as he ended the week QB21 (12.9 points), but the Texans were also never pressed on Sunday to aggressively attack Tennessee through the air.
Stroud completed a season-high 75.0% of his passes, but with Houston up 20-3 at the half, he attempted just 12 passes in the second half and just three in the fourth quarter.
This should be an advantageous spot for Stroud for fantasy purposes.
The Colts do not generate a lot of pressure, sitting 26th in the league with a 32.5% pressure rate.
Without pressure, Stroud is averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt (second in the NFL) with 19 passing touchdowns (tied for eighth) and a 110.3 rating (fourth).
Stroud also leads the NFL with a 109.1 rating this season against Cover-3, throwing for 8.9 Y/A with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions against the coverage on 194 dropbacks.
We have highlighted this throughout the season, but the Colts are playing Cover-3 on 50.3% of passing plays, second in the league.
When these teams played in Week 2, the Colts were in Cover-3 on 62.3% of passing plays.
Stroud was 21-of-31 for 243 yards and two touchdowns on his 34 dropbacks versus Cover-3 as part of throwing for 384 yards in that game.
Gardner Minshew: Minshew has operated as a QB2 for fantasy all season since taking over for Anthony Richardson.
He has made 12 starts, throwing multiple touchdown passes in four of them.
Despite that, if you are taking a shot on Minshew in 2QB formats and on the Saturday DFS slate, this is a positive spot for him to have a spike in passing output.
Minshew entered the Week 2 matchup between these teams early in the second quarter, connecting on 19-of-23 passes. That was a season-high 82.3% completion rate for him in an appearance this season.
This Houston pass defense has been vulnerable to close the year.
Since their Week 7 bye, the Texans have allowed passers to complete 66.7% of their throws (27th) for 8.2 yards per pass attempt (30th).
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor: Taylor was sturdy on Sunday, turning 22 touches into 104 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders.
The only blemish was Taylor caught just one pass for eight yards. He now has just two receptions over his past four games played, averaging a career-low 1.9 catches per game.
We will need some receiving work here or for Taylor to get into the end zone to float him for fantasy.
Houston has allowed a league-low 3.07 yards per carry to running backs this season.
They have been softer through the air, allowing 9.4 receiving points per game (21st) to backfields.
Devin Singletary: Singletary continued to operate as the lead back on Sunday, producing 86 yards on 19 touches against the Titans.
Singletary out-touched Dameon Pierce 19-to-9 and has out-touched Pierce 61-to-14 over the past three weeks.
While we need efficiency and scoring opportunities for Singletary to push past RB2 status, this is a good matchup for him to tap into both outcomes.
Over their past seven games, the Colts have allowed 122.1 rushing yards per game to running backs (30th) with 4.5 YPC (23rd) and a 59.6% success rate (24th) on those rushes.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins (TRUST): Collins pulled in 7-of-8 targets for 80 yards on Sunday.
He was capped from a larger outing due to Houston not being pushed on the scoreboard.
Collins collected a team-high 25.8% of the targets. The next closest player on the team was at 12.9%.
He has now run 154 routes with C.J. Stroud on the field and Tank Dell out.
On those routes, he has a team-high 26.2% target share with a target on 29.2% of his routes (2.99 yards per route run).
Collins has feasted on Cover-3 this season, which we highlighted earlier with Stroud as being relevant to this matchup.
On 130 routes against Cover-3 with Stroud on the field, Collins is averaging 3.12 yards per route run. That is good for eighth in the NFL.
When these teams played in Week 2, Collins secured 7-of-9 targets for 146 yards and a touchdown.
Michael Pittman: Pittman returned to the lineup after missing Week 16 with a concussion.
He caught 5-of-7 targets for 46 yards.
Pittman only has four touchdowns and is averaging 10.7 yards per catch on the season, so we need his opportunities to remain at lofty levels as a volume-based option on the WR1/WR2 line.
Teams are targeting their wide receivers 54.2% of the time against Houston, the third-lowest rate in the league.
The good news for Pittman is the Colts do not throw much to their tight ends, the area where opponents have attacked Houston.
When these teams played in Week 2, Pittman caught 8-of-12 targets but for only 56 yards.
Pittman moves around, gaining appeal wherever he goes. He plays outside 69.4% of the time with 26.5% of his snaps coming from the slot.
Houston has allowed 9.9 yards per target to perimeter wide receivers, 30th in the league.
They are also allowing 8.6 yards per target to interior wide receivers, 25th in the league.
Josh Downs: Downs has not scored since Week 7. His 53 yards on Sunday were his most in a game over that eight-game stretch, but he also only had two catches and two targets.
Downs is only a stacking dart throw for Saturday DFS.
Alec Pierce: Pierce only had one target on Sunday, but that resulted in a 58-yard touchdown.
That was the second time that Pierce and Minshew were able to connect on a long ball over the past five games, but that is all we get with Pierce as a fantasy play.
It has been one play or bust. He has more than three receptions just once this season.
If you are looking for that one big play from Pierce, Houston has allowed a league-high 22 receptions to wide receivers on throws 20 or more yards downfield since their bye.
Houston WRs: Noah Brown was only able to run five pass routes Sunday as he is working through a hip injury.
Should Brown be unable to play on Saturday, Robert Woods gets a lift for DFS.
Woods was tied for second on the team with four targets Sunday, catching all of them for 58 yards.
When these teams played in Week 2 with Woods playing substantial snaps, he caught 6-of-9 targets for a season-high 74 yards.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz: Schultz only caught 2-of-4 targets for 19 yards on Sunday, running into a tougher matchup and Houston dialing down the pass while in control of the game.
Pressed with winning on Saturday, Schultz will look to rebound against a Colts team that has played tight ends well.
Indianapolis has allowed 6.9 yards per target (10th) and a 2.4% touchdown rate (third) to tight ends on the season.
We will need a touchdown from Schultz, who has 19.4% of the Houston red zone targets (TE9) and 22.5% of their end zone targets (TE7).
