The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Wild Card matchup between the Texans and Browns.
Find a breakdown of every Wild Card NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Cleveland | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 23.25 | Implied Total | 20.75 | ||
| 23.3 | 10 | Points/Gm | 22.2 | 13 |
| 21.3 | 13 | Points All./Gm | 20.8 | 11 |
| 69.8 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 63.7 | 14 |
| 59.1 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.5 | 17 |
| 4.8 | 28 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 13 |
| 4.6 | 2 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 15 |
| 43.64% | 13 | Rush% | 41.00% | 21 |
| 56.36% | 20 | Pass% | 59.00% | 12 |
| 41.83% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 43.37% | 19 |
| 58.17% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 56.63% | 14 |
Against the Spread
- Browns: 10-6-1
- Texans: 9-8
- Texans ATS at Home: 4-5
- Browns ATS Away: 2-5-1
- Browns ATS as Favorite: 7-2
- Texans ATS as Underdog: 6-3
Game Overview
The opening game of the postseason is our most recent rematch of the games we have already seen this season.
Cleveland went into Houston on Christmas Eve, winning 36-22.
That final score made things look closer than they were.
The Browns went ahead 36-7 with 12 minutes to go into the game, with the only touchdown for Houston a kickoff return. They then scored a pair of garbage-time touchdowns in the final six minutes of the game for cosmetic purposes.
Of course, Houston was without C.J. Stroud for that game, forced to start Case Keenum and then turn to Davis Mills for their two touchdown drives to close out the game.
With Stroud on the field this season, Houston averaged 5.6 yards per play. On 155 plays without him on the field this season, they averaged 3.9 yards per play, which would have ranked last in the NFL.
In the Week 16 matchup between these teams, Houston averaged 3.7 yards per play. The only game worse for them was Week 14 against the Jets (2.6 yards per play) when Stroud exited the game with his concussion.
There are still matchup concerns here for Houston and Stroud that you can find below and are part of the reasons that they are a home underdog here, but just having Stroud makes this a completely new matchup for them.
Cleveland has enjoyed a resurgence thanks to adding Joe Flacco.
Oh, by the way, Flacco has the most road playoff wins ever in the Wild Card Round with four.
With Flacco on the field, Cleveland has averaged 5.8 yards per play on offense, higher than all of Deshaun Watson (5.1), P.J. Walker (4.2), and Dorian Thompson–Robinson (3.5).
That said, this Cleveland offense still has a few blemishes even with Flacco under center.
On the year, Cleveland has converted 31.6% of their third downs, 29th in the league and the lowest of all playoff teams.
With Flacco, they have only a 33.8% third down conversion rate, which would put them one spot higher.
Houston was fifth in third-down defense this season, allowing a 35.7% conversion rate.
In that Week 16 matchup, Cleveland only converted 6-of-16 third downs (37.5%).
The team with the best third-down defense in the NFL this year?
The Cleveland Browns.
The Browns allowed just a 29.1% conversion rate on third downs. Opponents averaged 8.4 yards to go on their third downs, the highest rate in the league.
Cleveland has also turned the ball over multiple times in 13 games this season, the most in the NFL.
They have turned the ball over 12 times in Flacco’s starts, tied for the most in the NFL in those games.
It has not caught up to them, but in a one-and-done format such as the NFL playoffs, ball protection can be enormous.
It also is big for the Cleveland defense, which has been excellent this season and arguably the best in the best in the league.
When opponents have started a drive on their side of the field, Cleveland has only allowed a touchdown on 13.6% of those possessions, second in the league behind the Ravens (12.6%).
But the Browns have allowed a touchdown on 57.9% (11-of-19) of the drives that have started on their side of the field, the highest rate in the NFL.
Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams back in 2002, teams that have won the turnover battle in the postseason have won 76.9% of the time.
Teams that have won the turnover battle by two or more have a 95-18 record as part of that larger sample.
Quarterback
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet and Warren Sharp's postseason betting recommendations, click below to purchase our NFL Postseason Package.
Purchase
More Wild Card Weekend fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
- Browns @ Texans
- Dolphins @ Chiefs
- Steelers @ Bills
- Packers @ Cowboys
- Rams @ Lions
- Eagles @ Bucs — FREE
