In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week.
Player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day. This early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted.
Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these props.
Consider the under on C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop
Despite Houston’s impressive performance in the Wild Card round, take the under on C.J. Stroud’s passing yards against the Baltimore Ravens.
C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop, current line:
Note: this prop is available at 242.5 at other books
Including last week against the Browns, C.J. Stroud has faced six defenses ranked in the top 10 in total pass defense. In those six games, Stroud topped 242 yards just twice and averaged just 199.1 yards per game.
The Texans passing attack has relied heavily on big plays. Stroud has picked up 36% of his yardage on plays that gained at least 25 yards, the league’s second-highest mark per TruMedia.
That explosive ability is what makes the Texans offense dangerous, but it’s also a factor in Stroud’s reduced effectiveness against the best pass defenses, which can limit those types of plays.
Baltimore gave up just 22 pass plays of 25 yards or more this year, the second-fewest in the league.
Consider the over on Jordan Love’s completions prop
Due to an unexpected game flow, we lost this prop last week, but let’s trust the trend and take the over on Jordan Love’s completions prop against the San Francisco 49ers.
Jordan Love’s completions prop, current line:
This prop was a winner in 10 of 11 weeks before the Wild Card Round, and Love likely would have hit the over again if the Packers needed to throw the ball in the second half.
Love completed 16 of 21 passes against Dallas, but only five of those attempts came in the second half.
Against San Francisco, we’re expecting a more competitive game with Green Bay likely playing from behind. That should create more volume for the passing game.
With enough volume, Love should easily hit the over again based on Green Bay’s conservative passing attack.
Through the first four weeks of the season, Love threw 10 or more yards downfield at the NFL’s second-highest rate, per TruMedia. Since Week 5 including the playoffs, he ranks 19th.
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Consider David Montgomery’s anytime touchdown prop
This has been a winning prop all year, and we have favorable odds this week, so take David Montgomery’s anytime touchdown prop against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
David Montgomery’s anytime touchdown prop, current line:
David Montgomery has scored in 12 of 15 games this year and 11 of 12 games in which he’s received at least 12 carries.
The Lions are favored by 6.5 points with an implied team total of 27.5 points. Given the expected game flow implied by those numbers and Montgomery’s track record, it’s surprising to see the odds as generous as -115.
Excluding the games he missed, Montgomery has received 56% of the Lions carries inside the five-yard line and 85% of the carries inside the two-yard line, per TruMedia.
Consider the over on Dalton Kincaid’s receptions prop
The Kansas City Chiefs' defensive scheme is a good matchup for this prop, so take the over on Dalton Kincaid’s receptions.
Dalton Kincaid’s receptions prop, current line:
In the regular season matchup between these teams, Dalton Kincaid hauled in five receptions on eight targets. It was one of just four games in which he saw eight or more targets, but the increased usage was no fluke.
The Chiefs use two-high coverage at the league’s second-highest rate (61% outside the red zone), per TruMedia. They used it at a 58% rate against the Bills.
This has been a consistent trend for Kansas City, as it lined up in two-high coverage on 50% of snaps or higher in all but four games.
The Bills' target distribution does not shift dramatically based on the coverage scheme, but the type of targets Kincaid sees does depend on the coverage.
Take a look at Kincaid’s average depth of target based on the coverage, via TruMedia:
- versus two-high: 4.4 yards downfield
- versus single-high: 7.8 yards downfield
Against two-high coverage, 73% of Kincaid’s targets are within five yards of the line of scrimmage. As a result, he had a 95% catch rate against two-high coverage compared to a 69% rate against single high.
So while Kincaid’s overall usage may not shift against a two-high coverage team like Kansas City, we should expect an elevated catch rate, which boosts his odds of hitting the over on this prop.
