One of the early rumors came to immediate fruition on Monday, with Kirk Cousins agreeing to a four-year contract with the Atlanta Falcons.
Cousins was having a strong 2023 campaign before a torn Achilles in Week 8 forced him to miss the rest of the season.
While we had an incomplete season, Cousins was posting one of his best fantasy seasons in the context of the league.
He was the QB7 in points per game last season, which was tracking to be his best season in the context of the league since joining Minnesota.
Kirk Cousins Career Stats
| Year | G | Att | Comp% | Yd/Att | Yd/Cmp | AY/Att | TD% | Int% | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 3 | 48 | 68.8% | 9.7 | 14.1 | 9.3 | 8.3% | 6.3% | 10.9 |
| 2013 | 5 | 155 | 52.3% | 5.5 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 2.6% | 4.5% | 7.1 |
| 2014 | 6 | 204 | 61.8% | 8.4 | 13.6 | 8.4 | 4.9% | 4.4% | 14.7 |
| 2015 | 16 | 543 | 69.8% | 7.7 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 5.3% | 2.0% | 18.1 |
| 2016 | 16 | 606 | 67.0% | 8.1 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 4.1% | 2.0% | 18.8 |
| 2017 | 16 | 540 | 64.3% | 7.6 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 5.0% | 2.4% | 17.4 |
| 2018 | 16 | 606 | 70.1% | 7.1 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 5.0% | 1.7% | 17.6 |
| 2019 | 15 | 444 | 69.1% | 8.1 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 5.9% | 1.4% | 16.3 |
| 2020 | 16 | 516 | 67.6% | 8.3 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 6.8% | 2.5% | 19.1 |
| 2021 | 16 | 561 | 66.3% | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 5.9% | 1.2% | 18.8 |
| 2022 | 17 | 643 | 65.9% | 7.1 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 4.5% | 2.2% | 17.2 |
| 2023 | 8 | 311 | 69.5% | 7.5 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 5.8% | 1.6% | 18.7 |
Cousins will turn 36 years old this August. He had surgery on November 1, which should put him on track to be ready this summer since he did not go to the same surgeon as Aaron Rodgers.
Jest aside, Cousins comes with some risk due to age and a return from a significant injury, but there is also no question that Cousins is a significant upgrade over what Atlanta received from their quarterback rooms over the previous three seasons.
Atlanta QBs vs. Kirk Cousins from 2021-2023:
| Stat | ATL QBs | Cousins |
|---|---|---|
| EPA/DB | -0.04 | 0.08 |
| Yds/Att | 7.0 | 7.3 |
| Success% | 40.2% | 45.0% |
| Inaccurate % | 12.8% | 8.2% |
| TD% | 3.6% | 5.3% |
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Kirk Cousins 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Now, with the addition of Cousins, the Falcons will transition from Arthur Smith to an offense led by Zac Robinson.
Robinson has been a part of the Rams coaching staff since 2019, where Cousins’ previous head coach Kevin O’Connell came from before taking over Minnesota’s offense.
As far as transitions into new systems go, this one should be clean.
Over the past three seasons under Smith, Atlanta had one of the least dynamic offenses in the NFL.
The Falcons ranked 30th in the NFL in dropback rate (55.1%) over those seasons.
They ranked dead last in the NFL in rate of passing plays in 11 personnel at 30.1%.
The league average over that span was 70.8%. The next closest team to them was at 47.4% rate of 11 personnel on passing plays.
The entire coaching tree from Sean McVay has deployed more 3WR sets compared to the league average over that span, so this should be a huge offensive change for the passing game in Atlanta compared to recent seasons.
For Cousins himself, this is largely a lateral move from a fantasy stance.
Cousins was already a quarterback who had seen a decline in rushing output before his Achilles injury, which all but flatlines any expectations via the ground.
Without a rushing component to his game for fantasy, Cousins is still best as a floor-based option on the QB1/QB2 line that can moonlight as a QB1 in the right spots.
He has finished lower than QB16 in points per game just once during his time as a starting quarterback.
On the other end, he has just three seasons as a top-10 scorer in points per game.
Cousins is losing the best wide receiver in the context of their career arc in Justin Jefferson, but he is going to a place that has front-end offensive assets in Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts already before accounting for any future additions.
These are the major winners here through a fantasy lens.
Robinson already had 1,463 yards and eight touchdowns on 272 touches as a rookie.
He did that on only 41.0% of the team's rushing attempts, a rate we anticipate rising post-Smith.
Robinson was a strong receiver as expected as a rookie, catching 58-of-86 targets for 487 yards and four touchdowns.
His 16.9% target share as a rookie only trailed Christian McCaffrey (18.8%).
He was already regarded as a fantasy RB1. The addition of Cousins gives him an added out of reaching a ceiling that can result in an overall RB1 scoring season.
The latter two pass catchers are where the market may not fully correct for, even if both London and Pitts receive a bump in cost.
Since he was drafted a year ago, Drake London has been targeted on 25.2% of his routes run.
That rate is 16th among wide receivers over that stretch.
The problem is that he has averaged only 27.3 pass routes run per game. That total ranks 70th among all wide receivers.
His 6.9 targets per game rank 33rd at the position over that span.
Rate stats provide context for analysis, but fantasy stats still stem from counting stats, something London has not had access to.
Not only forced to live on a low volume of opportunity, 16.3% of London’s career targets have been deemed inaccurate by his quarterback since entering the NFL.
For some context, Garrett Wilson is at 16.5%, a player London was selected ahead of in the NFL Draft two years ago but regarded in a different light in terms of average draft position in 2024 redraft leagues and Dynasty circles.
I am not suggesting that London should outright jump Wilson in either department, but he should be close to the same tiering with this addition.
Cousins has a 10.1% inaccurate target rate throwing to wide receivers over that span, which is the fifth-best rate in the league.
Desmond Ridder has a 17.4% inaccurate target rate throwing to wide receivers, 34th on the same list.
What is even worse is that 21.9% of London’s career red zone targets have been inaccurate, an area of the field where his skill set should thrive.
Cousins does drop to a 12.0% off-target rate in the red zone (17th), but Ridder ranked 32nd in that department (17.9%).
We also have to talk about Pitts, who was approaching fantasy-meme status under Smith.
Pitts has not come close to living up to his billing in fantasy circles.
I have been out on his seasonal ADP in all three seasons so far, but I am keeping the candle lit for his overall potential.
If the public is going to finally operate with trepidation, then I want to be in if there is scared money.
Before even making any excuses for Pitts based on playing 2023 after surgery we did not know the extent of or his attachment to Smith, Ridder, and this anemic offense overall, Pitts still comes with an enticing package.
Let’s take a step back for a moment.
No matter how scorned you have been by Pitts to this point, he still will not even turn 24 years old until October of this upcoming season.
Travis Kelce caught his first pass in the NFL one month before turning 25.
Kelce had his first TE1 scoring season in fantasy during his age-27 season.
Pitts may never match the run that Kelce has had afterward, but we have a lot of meat on the bone here for the career of Pitts.
Since entering the league, 16.2% of the targets Pitts has had come his way have been inaccurate via the quarterback.
The only tight end with a higher rate over that period is Darren Waller (17.1%).
We still need to see Zac Robinson get Pitts access to more full-field targets as opposed to living as a vertical target alone.
But the addition of Cousins paired with the removal of the offense that Atlanta ran under Smith gives Pitts arguably the best outlook of his career while the fantasy market may be at the lowest point of those four summers.
