T.A.’s Week 4 Westgate Supercontest Picks

For purposes of these articles, I will list the contest line as well as the most current line using 5Dimes sportsbook. I will note if the current line is playable or not. I have personally bet all of these sides unless otherwise noted. As always, shop for the best lines. 

YTD Contest Picks: 8-7 (53%)
Other Picks: 1-1 (50%)

Browns +6.5 at Baltimore (Current Line: +7 -120 5Dimes )

• I think the Browns are at a low spot in terms of market perception and this is a good buy low. Prior to the season, this line was 3/3.5. 
• The Ravens defense has been underwhelming this year, to say the least.
• Excluding the Miami game, Baltimore has given up 9.4 yards per attempt to Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes.
• Ravens ranked 20th in pass defense according to DVOA.
• The pass rush has been non-existent for Baltimore as well. PFF grades the Ravens pass rush 26th in the NFL. They only could muster three total sacks in the last two games.
• With a poor pass defense, sans Jimmy Smith, and a pass rush that hasn’t been consistent so far to start the season, the backdoor will be open if needed by Baker Mayfield.
• The biggest fears for the Browns will be the coaching mismatch between John Harbaugh and Freddie Kitchens as well as the Browns’ slow linebackers against Lamar Jackson.
• Historically, backing in division underdogs has been profitable. In the last five years, in division underdogs of 6 or more points have covered 58% of the time.
• I’d take the Browns at +7 -120 or better.

Washington +3 at NY Giants (Current Line: +3 -105 5Dimes)

• The Giants are overvalued after winning against Tampa as well as the Daniel Jones hype
• In the last five years, eight QBs have won in their debuts and only two QBs, Lamar Jackson and Carson Wentz, also won the following week.
• Jones was great last week and finished with a 112-passer rating. Among the eight QBs listed above who won their debuts, four of them also had a passer rating above 100. Marcus Mariota, Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens, and Wentz all finished with a passer rating above 100. None of them were able to have a rating above 100 the next game and only one, Wentz, was even in the 90s. 
• Point is as good as Jones looked last week, the odds are stacked against him that he can follow that up with another great game. Give NFL teams a full game of tape to dissect and game plan for a rookie QB in his second start and it’s difficult for the rookie to adjust.
• The biggest weakness on the Giants has been their atrocious defense. The defense ranks 31st against the pass and 24th against the run, according to DVOA.
• The Giants pass rush ranks dead last as well according to PFF.
• Add the fact that the Giants will be without starting middle linebacker in Alec Ogletree and backup Tae Davis and their defense is in for another long game 
• Washington is sixth in explosive pass plays on offense and are going up against a Giants defense that has given up fifth-highest percentage of explosive pass plays.

Falcons -4 vs Tennessee (Current Line: -3.5 -108 Bookmaker.Eu)

• This is probably my least favorite pick of the week, but I just don’t think the Titans are any good.
• Titans only do one thing well on offense and that is running the football with Derrick Henry. Outside of a couple of long runs from Dalvin Cook in Week 1, the Falcons run defense has been pretty good. They rank fifth-best in run defense success rate.
• The Falcons pass defense has struggled this season, but Marcus Mariota is not the QB who can take advantage.

Cardinals +5.5 vs Seattle (Current Line: +5.5 -110 5Dimes )

• I have been fading Seattle all season and will continue here in this spot in Arizona.
• Seattle has been pretty bad on defense this year and rank 23rd by PFF in pass defensive coverage as well as pass rush.
• Seattle’s poor pass defense is even worse when you consider the competition faced. Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, and Teddy Bridgewater are not the cream of the crop of QBs.
• Arizona is one of those teams that you want to back when getting over 3 points, but you would not want to back when they think they are expected to win like last week vs Carolina.
• Seattle with Brian Schottenheimer at OC, plays most games way too close to the vest and with a high percentage of run plays, this conservative strategy doesn’t lend itself to blowouts.
• Seattle has run the ball the second-highest percentage of the time this year in the NFL in score neutral situations.
• The backdoor should be open for a playmaker like Kyler Murray.

Bears -1.5 vs Minnesota (Current Line: -1.5 -110 5Dimes)

• It’s always tough to back Mitchell Trubisky as a favorite but he showed up for me last week against Washington.
• There is a major mismatch along the lines as the Vikings pass blocking is graded as 31st in the NFL going up against the No. 1 rated pass rush in the NFL, according to PFF.
• Last season Kirk Cousins was overwhelmed by this defense, getting sacked six times in two games and throwing for a remarkably low 4.9 yds/attempt.
• We saw similar line movement when Minnesota went into Green Bay in Week 2 and the Packers jumped out to a big lead and ended up covering the spread. The market values the Vikings very highly, but I don’t know if this is the spot to expect a straight-up win.
• Expect a tight game but when given the choice I wouldn’t want to back Cousins on the road against the best defense in the NFL.

Other sides and totals I have personally wagered on and I still like at the current number:

• Panthers +4 at Houston