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Not a single team in 2023 averaged positive EPA per attempt when passing the ball BEHIND the line of scrimmage.
Meanwhile, all but 3 teams averaged positive EPA per attempt when passing the ball BEYOND the line of scrimmage (CLE, NYJ, NE).
Despite the lack of efficiency, the answer to modern defenses from offensive coordinators the last two seasons has been to pass the ball shorter and shorter.
Never before had NFL offenses averaged at least 22% of all pass attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage…
Until the last two seasons. BOTH averaged over 22% of all attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage (22.9% in 2023 and 22.1% in 2022).
This is an ever-growing trend.
Rates of passes being thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage by season:
- 2011-2016: 18.2%
- 2017-2018: 20.5%
- 2019-2021: 21.2%
- 2022-2023: 22.5%
The problem is these passes are becoming less and less effective.
EPA per attempt on passes thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage by season:
- 2011-2016: -0.14
- 2017-2018: -0.15
- 2019-2021: -0.18
- 2022-2023: -0.23
It has become so bad that a running back carry is vastly more efficient than any pass thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Look at the comparison over the last two years:
- Any RB-run: -0.08 EPA/att, 38% success, 4.3 yds/carry
- Pass at/behind the LOS: -0.23 EPA/att, 33% success, 4.3 yds/attempt
If we want to dig deeper into precise route types, we see that of the 8,072 dropbacks in the last two years that featured a pass thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage, not a single type produced positive EPA.
By precise target route group names, the top 5 most targeted:
- 35% WR/TE screens: -0.11 EPA/att, 39% success
- 26% Flares: -0.13 EPA/att, 36% success
- 14% HB Screens: -0.00 EPA/att, 42% success
- 13% Out Routes: -0.20 EPA/att, 38% success
- 10% Crossing Routes: -0.09 EPA/att, 39% success
All other route types are 1% or less of the total.
Offensive coordinators cannot pivot to passes behind the line of scrimmage as the answer to modern NFL defenses.
Those aren’t working and are playing into the hands of the defense.
The best adjustment is more passes downfield and fewer designed play calls to pass at or behind the line.
The second-best adjustment would be checks to run plays if a called play has a poor pre-snap look based on coverage.
There also is always a quarterback scramble, which would be VASTLY superior to an actual pass thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Compare QB scrambles to passes thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage over the last two years:
- QB scramble: +0.45 EPA/play, 58% success, 7.3 yds/carry
- Pass at/behind the LOS: -0.23 EPA/att, 33% success, 4.3 yds/attempt
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