Running Back Stats That Matter for Fantasy Football

We are pushing into August and further downhill towards the 2024 fantasy season.

With most fantasy drafts approaching these final weeks before the season, we have one last series to run this week before laying out the positional draft plans next week.

This week, we will dive into the stats that matter the most for weekly fantasy output and which have the largest rollover year over year.

Running Back Fantasy Related Articles:

• Running Back Tiers
• Running Back Rankings
• Running Back Trends
• Red Zone Points vs Expectation: Running Backs
• What We Can Learn From ADP: Running Backs

Highest Correlation to Weekly Fantasy Points Scored For Running Backs

This one is largely obvious, but nothing correlates to scoring (or not scoring) fantasy points in both PPR and 0.5-PPR formats rather than touching or not touching the football.

You cannot accrue counting stats without first touching the ball.

Volume is everything.

Opportunity is the name of the game at running back, which is why gamers get downright giddy when there is a DFS slate with a backup running back elevated into a lead role during the week after pricing has already been posted.

Touchdowns can be fickle and tough to predict, but we are largely good at predicting where the football is going within a backfield on a given week.

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In our sample of games over the past 10 seasons, 60.1% of the backs to receive 20 or more touches in a game have posted an RB1 scoring week with those backs averaging 19.9 PPR points and 18.3 half-PPR points per game.

In 2023, that rate was even higher.

65.8% of all running backs who touched the ball 20 or more times in a game turned in an RB1 scoring week.

Of the 18 running backs to lead the position in weekly scoring over the season, those backs averaged 25.6 touches per game. Every single one of them touched the ball 20 or more times in that game.

Even if you run hot in the touchdown department, you still need a lot of touches to take down the weekly crown.

When we went under the hood dissecting running back trends across the league, we highlighted that running back touches are at a premium now more than ever.

It is not a surprise to see total touchdowns follow up right behind touch counts as the next most important stat for backs.

Falling into the end zone just once comes close to ensuring that the back lands as a weekly RB2 or better.

Over our sample, 80.7% of all running backs to score at least one touchdown were top-24 scorers that given week.

If you end up scoring multiple times, then you are in the money.

Just once since 2012 did a back score multiple times and failed to land in the top 24 weekly scores.

92.6% of all backs to score multiple times ended up as RB1 scorers.

It is hard to crack the top 12 in leagues that reward catches without a touchdown.

Just 13.8% of all top 12 weekly scorers over that span have gotten there without a touchdown in the game.

There have been just seven times that the RB1 in overall weekly scoring did so without a touchdown since 2012, with five of those backs catching at least 10 passes in those games.

When splitting touchdowns up, the position scores on the ground at a three-to-one rate compared to through the air, placing more of an emphasis on getting those rushing touchdowns.

If you do happen to get a receiving score or have a back that has more acumen in reaching the end zone through the air, it is a huge swing since nearly every primary scoring system now rewards something for the actual catch itself to go along with the touchdown and inherent yardage.

Remember, a top-scoring running back provides the largest positional leverage you can put into your lineup, so top-scoring running backs matter.

It is the baseline scorers at the position which has been exploitable on a weekly level.

The only other metric above with over a 50% correlation to points scored in snaps played in PPR formats.

More snaps equals more pass routes, which in turn adds more full-PPR opportunities.

Receiving work for running backs is at close to an all-time low while running back targets per game have dropped from the previous season in six straight seasons.

We will surely see a dead-cat bounce in that department at some point, but with the crux of all running back touches coming via handoffs, that is where the weight of scoring points is at the position.

There is not as large of a gap between the numbers of haves and have-nots for running backs that catch the football and do not compare to mobile quarterbacks and those passers who are not running, but it is along those same lines.

If you are one of the backs catching the football, you are inherently getting more production per touch since the catch itself is a reward while the yardage gained on an average reception is greater than the average handoff.

Year-Over-Year Correlation Categories for Running Backs (Counting Stats)

I am splitting these into two parts this season, separating counting stats from efficiency and rate stats.

Counting stats have far more yearly rollover.

Fantasy football more than any other fantasy sport loves to live looking back in the past as gospel for the future.

While the strongest correlations for year-over-year stability clock in just under the 60% mark for running backs, you can already see a massive difference compared to what we covered with quarterbacks yesterday.

Right in line with what we discussed on a per-game level, touches per game are the most important statistic at the position in terms of spilling over into the following season.

Volume is everything, which is why I am higher on players such as Rachaad White, Travis Etienne, and Alvin Kamara compared to the field this offseason.

You can make an argument that White’s touch count from last season is compromised in 2024 more than I am expecting, but Etienne and Kamara appear to be undervalued based on their surrounding backfields and ADP.

If you are also looking at things, then you immediately have caught notice that per-game statistics are far and away better to use than anything related to the full-season outcomes.

The top eight spots here in the strongest signal for stability year-over-year are per-game stats.

We do not have a ton of backs being penalized for injuries this season, but backs such as Kyren Williams, Alvin Kamara, De’Von Achane, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor were all RB1 scorers per game last season who missed multiple games.

Kamara appears to be the largest discount among that group.

Per-game output has been more stable simply because games played among running backs from one year to the next have the lowest correlation in the table above.

Touchdowns are significant in their weekly and seasonal impact but are extremely volatile.

Be wary of seasons that were impacted by high touchdown totals or backs that ran cold.

Running backs are largely reliant on their offenses getting the ball to a specific area of the field to reach the end zone, and we covered several backs that are due for regression to the mean on their touches near the paint in 2024.

Year-Over-Year Correlation Categories for Running Backs (Efficiency Stats)

I split up the stats here so you could more clearly see that efficiency and rate stats have minimal stability year-over-year.

The top efficiency/rate stat here in yearly correlation to the following season would rank 17th in the previous table.

This is something I constantly even need to remind myself since I am creating content and finding statistics to drive home a point with a player, but we need to be careful not to overweigh anything tied to efficiency from the prior season over the volume-based usage metrics, which are far more stable.

Again, players such as White, Etienne, and Kamara stand out in that capacity as players who were not efficient but were high-volume players.

We also should be careful not to push out players who optimized their opportunities over raw volume.

On average running backs score a touchdown on 3.1% of their touches.

Both Miami running backs Raheem Mostert (8.9%) and De’Von Achane (8.5%) were over 8.0% last season.

The next closest running back with over 100 touches last season was Christian McCaffrey at 6.2%.

There have been just nine other seasons since 1992 in which a running back scored on 8.0% of their touches with 100 or more opportunities.

Not one of those players scored more touchdowns the following season and just one scored double-digit times in the next season.

When looking at these rate stats, the only ones with at least a 25% correlation to the following season are receiving metrics such as air yards per target, targets per route run, and team target share.

Rushing efficiency has next to no correlation year-over-year.

Almost every metric at the bottom here is related to some form of rushing efficiency.

Despite the lackluster numbers overall, if looking at missed tackle data and yardage gained before and after contact, I do find it interesting that yards generated after contact carry double the weight of yardage gained before contact per rush.

This is still a big pro for a back like Derrick Henry.

Out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes last season, Henry was 44th in yards before contact per run (0.75) but was still eighth among that same group in yards after contact per rush (3.32).

Inversely, D’Andre Swift was 45th on that list in yards after contact per run while sitting second in the NFL in yards before contact per run (2.16).

Tidying things up:

• The name of the game is opportunity. Follow the touches to find fantasy points.
• Touchdowns are the most important stat for running backs outside of touches. Unfortunately, touchdowns have the weakest correlation year-over-year for counting stats outside of games played. Be cautious about overweighting touchdown performance from the season prior.
• Focus on per-game output over bulk stats from the season prior
• Prioritize touches and opportunities over prior efficiency, especially within tiers.
• Tread lightly with rushing efficiency stats from the previous season, they are almost completely descriptive and carry next to zero top-down correlation for previous efficiency output.