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The Washington Commanders are coming off another disappointing season finishing 4-13. The team has not made the playoffs since 2020, and even then they finished below .500.
Here are 4 things that Warren Sharp believes could reverse their losing trajectory.
First Down Efficiency
On first down plays in the first half, the Commanders ranked (#29) in EPA/play and #29 in yds/play last year.
Washington faced the NFL’s #1 lightest boxes on average on first down. Only 44% of snaps saw 7+ box defenders – the NFL average was 59%.
But despite the light boxes (which are a great time to run the ball), Washington threw it on 64% of plays (#1 highest pass rate).
And despite the light boxes, the RB run game was embarrassingly bad. They ranked #29 in EPA/rush (-0.18) and gained 4.2 YPC (#15).
It’s hard to envision a team with so many light boxes ranking #29 when running the ball, but Washington did. So they passed the ball even more.
They matched the NFL’s lowest rate of play action (23%) and #7 lowest rate of pre-snap motion with the #4 highest rate of shotgun and #6 highest rate of 11 personnel.
These rates were not the result of trailing in games.
Even isolating the first half:
- #32 rate of play action
- #22 rate of motion
- #5 rate of shotgun
- #6 rate of 11 personnel
So they put 11 personnel on the field and stood behind center in shotgun without motion or play action at the highest rate in the NFL.
They gave NO disguises to the defense, nor did they do anything to help their young QB via extra blockers or a productive run game vs. so many light boxes.
The run game stunk, so Sam Howell had to stand there and pass the ball vs. defenses that were already playing the pass.
And defenses didn’t even need to blitz. They got pressure at a 37% rate when not blitzing, #2 highest in the NFL.
And they recorded the #1 most QB hits and the #2 most QB sacks despite Howell’s time to throw being less than the NFL average.
Combine all these disgusting elements on first down?
- First down plays in the first half gained -0.17 EPA/play (#29) and only 4.7 yards/play (#29).
- First down plays all game long gained -0.12 EPA/play (#29) and only 4.8 yards/play (#30).
Don’t Fall Behind Early
Washington scored only 39 total first quarter points (#30) all season.
As a result, the Commanders trailed by over 5 points/game after the first quarter, the #1 largest average deficit in the NFL last year.
Nothing was rectified in the second quarter, and Washington trailed by the largest deficit of any team at halftime (-133 total points).
And that’s positively no way to set up a young QB for success.
The team wasn’t good, so this isn’t all on the staff, but the staff’s lack of adjustment was a huge cause for concern.
Explosives
The Commanders only had 19 plays of 30+ yards.
Washington didn’t produce explosive plays and allowed a ton of them.
They ranked #30 in 20+ yard play margin (gained less allowed) and #32 in 30+ yard play margin. No team allowed more 15+ yard plays than Washington (133), nearly 8 per game.
Execute in the Red Zone
The biggest issue for Kliff Kingsbury when he worked with another rookie, Kyler Murray out in Arizona, wasn’t that they couldn’t move the ball.
They ranked:
- #15 in rate of drives that reached the red zone, and
- #14 in rate of drives that reached goal-to-go
The issue was they were terrible inside the red zone, which has been an issue at times for Kingsbury offenses.
With the height edge of Jayden Daniels vs. Murray, it will hopefully be easier for him as a rookie than it was for Murray.
The Commanders will be operating with a rookie quarterback, which brings both optimism and concern.
If Daniels can help the team improve in these four areas, then maybe the Commanders can sneak into the playoffs.
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Commanders Over/Under Wins, 2024:
The Commanders are predicted to win 6.5 games in 2024, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Commanders Win Total in 2024
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
The selection of LSU QB Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft feels like a light at the end of the tunnel for this franchise.
Daniels pairs excellent rushing ability with 99th-percentile passing numbers in his final college season.
#2 Reason to Bet the Over:
If anyone can turn Washington’s defense around, it's new head coach Dan Quinn.
Quinn’s three-year stint as Dallas’s defensive coordinator ended with impressive numbers.
Under Quinn, the Cowboys ranked first in interceptions, defensive takeaways, and takeaway EPA while ranking second in forced fumbles as well as total takeaways.
» Bet the Commanders Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Commanders Win Total in 2024
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Commanders faced the second-highest rate of pressure without a blitz last season, feeling the heat on 37% of snaps.
Sam Howell was part of the problem, and the Commanders did add help to the line in free agency.
Still, this remains an area of concern, especially with a rookie quarterback.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
Washington struggled defensively in 2023.
They ranked 30th or worse in every major metric including yards per play allowed, EPA per snap allowed, total yards, and total EPA allowed.
They also ranked 30th in 20+ yard play margin and last in the league in 30+ yard play margin.
No unit allowed more plays of 15+ yards last season.
The Commanders made a lot of moves to help this defense this offseason including hiring Dan Quinn, but they have a long way to go to even be an average defense.
» Bet the Commanders Win Total Under
