How to Draft Quarterbacks in Fantasy Football, 2023

Everything this offseason has built up to this point.

From our player tiers, positional rankings, and all of the 2024 off-season content you can find in one place on the site in the full Draft Kit, we have fully prepared for fantasy drafts.

With that content in place as a North Star in how to play the game of fantasy football, I also know some of you are here because you want to know how I am playing drafts out myself this summer.

I want to dive into how I approach drafts this year at each position this week, starting with the quarterback position.

I will also update this throughout the remaining time in the offseason if we get any significant news that impacts draft approaches.

Even those with the draft kit may not have read every word written this offseason.

At this stage of the offseason, I am operating under the assumption you have at minimum checked out the player rankings page and the individual player writeups in the positional tiers posts.

With that in mind, these pieces will not be as statistically centric and fully into the weeds on the pros or cons of each player and focus on the approach to drafting the positions.

If you want further analysis on each player, I encourage you to read the player writeups in the Tiers post.

Quarterback Fantasy Related Articles:

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How to Draft Quarterbacks in 1QB Fantasy Football Leagues

For now, we’re talking about leagues with only one required starting quarterback.

In those formats, I cannot emphasize this enough early on, but there is still little to no reason to be the first person in your draft to the quarterback position.

Not only are you at the mercy of not knowing when the QB2 will come off the board (which factors into opportunity cost at face value), but there is also added opportunity cost compounded in taking a quarterback early in traditional formats because the leverage that having an elite scoring quarterback provides every week is the lowest of any position.

Even if Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts are selected first overall and they pace the position in fantasy points, you can make up ground on that team that selects him based on where he is selected in drafts.

On average this offseason, the QB1 is being selected on par with the RB10 and WR12 in fantasy drafts.

For the sake of answering where the breaking point would be… “Well, when would you finally cave in and be the first to select a quarterback?”

The most realistic outcome in which I would consider being the first gamer to pick a quarterback in my league would be in a spot where the running back and wide receiver positions have thinned out and leveled off.

For myself, that would be when Tiers 1-4 of the running backs are gone (plus Isiah Pacheco) and Tiers 1-3 of the wide receivers have all been drafted.

I would love to have Allen or Hurts on any roster where all of that lines up, but that is rarely the case.

While it is rare that I will ever be the first gamer to select a quarterback, there are advantages to having a front-end player within the position.

Gamers have identified that dual-threat quarterbacks draw the best odds of turning in front-end scoring seasons.

Even with hits among picket passers with low draft cost such as C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, or Baker Mayfield last season, those players still lacked week-winning production within the position.

Those players combined for nine total weeks inside the top three scorers at the position.

There is nothing wrong with running into the value those passers provided, but we always have one eye focused on the apex upside outcome when picking players.

Missing out on a passing-driven fantasy option is unlikely to bury you in most seasons.

While you can certainly run into value from a pocket passer, the odds that a quarterback who is largely passing-driven when generating fantasy points will finish as the QB1 in overall scoring is lowered.

Once the QB1 is off the board, I will want to see if the other of Allen or Hurts lines up with the tiers at running back and wide receiver laid out earlier.

If they do, then we can entertain taking the second quarterback.

After that, I want to land a dual-threat passer at a palatable price point.

We have several options as we move through drafts.

Allen and Hurts at the front of the position, Lamar Jackson a stone’s throw from them, Anthony Richardson another skip down the line then Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, and Caleb Williams through what typically are the players selected as QB1 options.

I do want to make an exception for Patrick Mahomes since I believe the Chiefs are in a prime position to bounce back as a passing offense, but the price has to be right.

I leave 1QB fantasy drafts with one of those players as my starter in 90+% of drafts.

The way average drafts have gone to this point, I have been drafting Kyler and Daniels the most among that group.

Those are players who I am not overly concerned with starting regardless of matchups because they have the rushing ability to anchor tougher spots as a passer.

If everything goes poorly and we are forced to go deeper into the well, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, and Will Levis all fit into the archetype of player we are looking for, but those are players we will focus on adding to 2QB rosters.

If that initial cut-off at Caleb Williams is breached and I still do not have a quarterback in 1QB leagues, I will focus on adding a pocket passer based on the opening schedule.

We have covered this, but pocket passers selected as back-end QB1 options are the most fragile archetype to invest in at the position.

Tread lightly in that area of that draft.

Jordan Love may already be off the board, but if he is hanging around, he fits what I am looking for at a cheaper cost.

Love opens the season with PHI, IND, TEN, MIN, LAR, and ARI over his opening six games. Not only do many of those pass defenses project to be softer, but many are also attached to viable offenses to increase shootout potential.

Odds are Love will be gone by then, shifting focus to Jared Goff.

Goff opens the season four dome games against the Rams, Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Seahawks.

One thing to watch with Goff is that he does carry an earlier bye (Week 5) when you will be churning your roster early in the season and may not want to roster multiple quarterbacks.

Tua Tagovailoa is the next passer on that watch list.

Tua has the offensive attachment we are looking for from a ceiling perspective, and the Dolphins play just one playoff team from last season before their Week 6 bye.

There are a few potentially tough spots for pocket passers to be wary of when taking a pocket passer after that tipping point.

Brock Purdy opens with the Jets, who have allowed the fewest passing points per game in each of the past two seasons.

Things do get much better for Purdy before his Week 9 bye, but you will want to stream for him in Week 1.

Dak Prescott is someone I have expressed caution about this offseason.

Prescott has a tough opening slate to push that regression.

He has games against the Browns (second in passing points allowed in 2023) and Ravens (fourth) over the opening three weeks of the season.

He also has a Week 7 bye and a matchup against the 49ers in Week 8.

Prescott has not had more than 12.0 passing points in a game against the 49ers since 2017.

Since we are on that tier, I also want to mention that if you are in a league that plays with 6-point touchdowns, things do improve those pocket passers.

In those formats, a player like Joe Burrow gets elevation.

That said, leagues with 6-point passing touchdowns do not cover the intent of slowing down the viability of dual-threat fantasy quarterbacks. They enhance the elite ones.

What 6-point passing touchdowns limit is the ceiling of the traditional “Konami Code” archetype.

That archetype is the quarterbacks that gain their floor via rushing but come attached to weak passing numbers.

Someone like Justin Fields from previous seasons is someone who can be run down by a pocket passer in those leagues.

This is where a player such as Anthony Richardson should move down boards, but make sure to not entirely write him off.

If Richardson has a passing season above expectations, he will still break the bank in any format.

QB2 and SuperFLEX Leagues

The tiers do not move when in SuperFLEX formats. We just elevate the position as a whole.

You want to be hyper-aggressive in 2QB formats at the top.

If you can land any passer in the opening two tiers at the front of drafts, do it.

If you can land two of them without reaching, do it.

I want to begin my 2QB drafts off with a pair of QB1 options, but if you are picking at the front of drafts, that is unlikely to happen since that tier of passers will almost always be picked clean approaching the back half of the second round.

You can still land Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams in the back half of the second round or later in those leagues.

Those players are better options at cost versus elevating the back-end QB1 pocket passers.

The same principles still apply within the position.

The most common mistake I see gamers make in 2QB formats is elevating that tier of quarterbacks who carry high bust rates over elite skill position players who get pushed down by gamers having a legitimate arms race at the quarterback position.

In 2QB formats, you do not want to be the gamer elevating someone like Prescott over RB1 and WR1 options who are typically first-rounders in 1QB formats just because you feel like you have to force quarterback.

You always have the potential to arbitrage a pedestrian season from a pocket passer.

Players such as Goff, Tua, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Justin Herbert are viable picks at cost who have the probability of replicating mid-to-lower QB1 range passing seasons.

Lawrence feels extremely underpriced in 2QB formats this offseason.

I have already hinted at this, but players such as Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, and Will Levis fit the archetype of players that can significantly out-produce ADP.

You can even squint to see some of that from Bo Nix.

In situations where I fail to land my second quarterback within the top 20 of the position, throwing multiple darts at QB2/QB3 on those players in a platoon gives you multiple shots at running into a breakout.

I don’t fault anyone who removes Watson from their draft boards, but I believe he is the most mispriced quarterback this season.

Even if Watson never rebounds as the passer he was early in his career, he was inside of the top 10 fantasy scorers in three of his five full games last season.

He averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game in those weeks, which would have been QB13 on the season.

Watson added 4.0 rushing points per game those weeks with 28.4 yards on the ground per contest.

Watson also has three potential pinball games in the fantasy playoffs against offenses that have the potential to score points.

Outside of opening with a tough draw against Dallas, Watson gets the Jaguars, Giants, Raiders, and Commanders over his next four games to open the season.

The middle is tough, but the opening and closing schedules offer upside outcomes for a player often selected ~QB20 in drafts.

If he fails at that cost, no real damage.

Auction Formats

Many of the same core principles above translate over to my auction approach.

But in auctions, I am far less risk-averse than in snake drafts.

I am a more cautious drafter in the early rounds of serpentine drafts.

I know I am going to get a lot of binary player choices wrong, so I want to spend my top picks not only on the players that I have the most confidence in, but I want to factor in opportunity cost more in those formats, which limits how aggressively I do play the quarterback position.

In snake drafts, I inherently know that I am going to need extra bodies at wide receiver and running back, so I prefer to use my higher-end draft capital at those positions to ensure I have as many swings as possible at those positions when they offer the largest bang for my investment.

In auctions, we are removing some of the opportunity costs.

We are still spending equal round value to acquire a front-end quarterback, but now we are not completely freezing ourselves out of players that have similar draft costs.

In auctions, I will not force quarterback similar to my approach in snake drafts.

But I do want to hang around on the pricing of those Tier 1-2 quarterbacks in an attempt to land some value compared to the equivalent of their snake draft cost.

That also allows operating under the agency that if I do want to pay up for an elite quarterback while still attempting to land high-caliber running backs or wide receivers of similar costs, I have the option to do so.

Keeper Targets

Given the nature of the position, we will be the lightest here on potential keeper targets outside of 2QB formats.

You are not going to run into a lot of keeper potential in 1QB leagues.

That said, you may have picked up C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, or even Brock Purdy on extreme discounts last season given where each was drafted a year ago.

The rookies are obvious candidates in this department.

Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams will still cost you tangible draft capital, but each could still be cheaper now than a year from now, especially in 2QB formats.

Bo Nix and Drake Maye have appeal as lower-cost picks in 2QB formats.

Michael Penix and J.J. McCarthy are tougher bets.

Penix’s spot is appealing, but you will have to handcuff a roster spot for potentially all of the season.

Roster spots are just too valuable.

If you have IR spots, McCarthy could sit as a stash. But if those IR spots are capped, you will inevitably need them as well.

Even in keeper formats, I am not looking to flirt with those picks.

Players who I believe could end up more expensive next offseason versus now outside of those mentioned are Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson, Bryce Young, and Will Levis.

QB Draft Approach Overview:

Enter your league anticipating that you will not be the first team in your league to select a quarterback.
Only force the issue on selecting the QB1 overall if Tiers 1-4 of the running backs and Tiers 1-3 wide receivers are cleaned out.
Monitor QB ADP without forcing things. The ideal start would be landing a Tier 1 quarterback in that same range in which Tiers 1-4 of running back and wide receiver are picked over.
1QB draft targets in order under those guidelines: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, and Caleb Williams.
Be cautious about paying a premium for pocket passers that require QB1 draft capital.
Do not force this tier based on positional need. Make them luxury picks.
If your league has six-point passing touchdowns, the run-first quarterbacks have lower floors but still carry massive ceilings. Balance out both accordingly with the pocket passers.
If missing out on the best dual-threat options, Jordan Love, Jared Goff, and Tua Tagovailoa are the top pocket passer targets at average ADP.
The same target list applies to 2QB formats but be more aggressive in selecting QBs.
Grab a Tier 1 QB as soon as possible in 2QB leagues.
The same principles apply in 2QB formats. Be wary of the pocket passers who are expensive. Do not force one of these guys over elite RB1 or WR1 who get pushed to the opening round turn in drafts.
In 2QB leagues, several mid-range pocket passers will run down that archetype at more expensive costs. Use that to your advantage.
The best late-round darts in 2QB formats: Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Will Levis, Bryce Young, and Bo Nix.
In keeper formats, add Drake Maye to that group.
In auction formats, apply similar principles, but you can be more aggressive on the front of the position due to reduced opportunity cost.