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Deshaun Watson and the Browns offense must perform better to make a playoff run. They made the playoffs despite playing with a backup quarterback last season.

Warren Sharp thinks the Browns can fix their offensive issues by changing their playcalling personnel.

Kevin Stefanski’s offense was great in Minnesota. It was very efficient out of heavy personnel groupings, and that’s what landed him the job as head coach in Cleveland.

And in Cleveland, in 2020 his first year, he won Coach of the Year in large part because his offense was exceeding expectations.

That was because they were leaning into heavy personnel groupings, which they did as well in 2021 where they were utilizing 11 personnel at only about a 37% rate going in the lowest rates in the NFL.

Fast forward to 2022. They begin playing Watson, who prefers 11 personnel.

Look at the splits of Kevin Stefanski’s usage of 11 personnel on early downs in the first three quarters by year:

  • 2020: 36%
  • 2021: 37%
  • 2022: 63% in Watson starts from Wk 13 onward
  • 2023: 66%

The Browns used 3+ WRs last year on 71% of early downs in the first three quarters, the #6 highest rate in the NFL.

Why is this a problem?

Let’s look at Stefanski’s offense in general since he arrived in Cleveland in 2020 and, regardless of QB, examine their efficiency by personnel grouping:

  • 11 personnel: -0.05 EPA/att (#25), 45% success (#18), 6.8 YPA (#22)
  • 12 personnel: +0.18 EPA/att (#5), 51% success (#7), 8.1 YPA (#7)

Now, look at every pass Watson has thrown since the start of 2022 in Cleveland (early downs, first three quarters):

  • 11 personnel: -0.22 EPA/att
  • 12 personnel: +0.08 EPA/att

It is hard to be too critical or be supremely confident in any statements based on the 2023 data due to the moving pieces at QB and OL, but what I can say is the season did nothing to convince me that the Browns' best course is to load up with 11 personnel passes on early downs.

Stefanski’s offense has been DECIDEDLY better out of 12 personnel, but the team is shifting because Watson feels more comfortable out of 11 personnel.

I was leery of this in 2023 and remain just as leery entering 2024.

I realize they added Jerry Jeudy, but the edges Stefanski has built and the creativity he designs into his 12-personnel offense are top-level, and to turn your back on that because of Watson seems questionable at best.

Watson himself has been much better passing out of 12 personnel than 11 while in Stefanski’s offense these last two years.

He must revert back to this play calling style to get efficiency from his veteran quarterback.

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Browns Over/Under Wins, 2024:

The Browns are predicted to win 8.5 games in 2024, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.

Why You Should Bet the Over: Browns Win Total in 2024

#1 Reason to Bet the Over:

Cleveland’s defense was far and away the main catalyst for their success in 2023.

They ranked first in non-sack EPA allowed last year, the best of any team since the 2019 Patriots and the fifth-best since 2000.

If this is what they were able to do on a season in which they ranked 27th in health, the ceiling is high for 2024.

#2 Reason to Bet the Over:

This is one of the best top-to-bottom rosters in the NFL.

The Browns came in third overall in our unit rankings behind just the 49ers and Lions.

If they get quality play out of the quarterback position, the Browns are poised to be one of the best teams in the league.

» Bet the Browns Win Total Over 

Why You Should Bet the Under: Browns Win Total in 2024

#1 Reason to Bet the Under:

The Browns are set to allocate the most cap space to quarterbacks in a single season in NFL history with Watson’s $63.8 million cap hit leading the way.

Elite production the likes of which we have not seen from Watson since his time in Houston is needed to justify that cap hit.

#2 Reason to Bet the Under:

The Browns were able to pull off wins in close games last season, going 5-0 in games decided by a field goal or less and 6-2 in one possession games.

Their expected win total based exclusively on points differential was 9.4, which is still good and would hit the over here, but it also shows they overperformed some with 11 wins in 2023.

» Bet the Browns Win Total Under 

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