The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 3 matchup between the Bears and Colts.
Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
Chicago | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
1.5 | Spread | -1.5 | ||
20.50 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
18.5 | 18 | Points/Gm | 18.5 | 18 |
18.0 | 6 | Points All./Gm | 22.5 | 19 |
59.5 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 48.0 | 32 |
61.0 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 71.5 | 32 |
3 | 32 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.7 | 3 |
4.5 | 5 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 23 |
36.97% | 25 | Rush% | 41.67% | 20 |
63.03% | 8 | Pass% | 58.33% | 13 |
39.34% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 65.04% | 32 |
60.66% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 34.96% | 1 |
- The Bears have allowed 20 or fewer points in eight straight games going back to last season, the longest streak in the league.
- The 3.0 yards per play by Chicago are the fewest for a team through 2 games since 2006.
- The 3.0 net passing yards per attempt for Chicago are the third-worst for a team through two weeks in the 2000s and the fewest since 2005.
- The Colts are one of two teams (Carolina) that have trailed for 100% of their second-half snaps.
- 65.2% of Chicago's set of downs have reached third down, the highest rate in the league.
- 75.9% of the set of downs against the Colts gain a new first down or touchdown, 30th in the league.
- The Bears have punted on 54.5% of their possessions, the highest rate through two weeks.
- Only 15.0% of the drives against the Colts have failed to gain a first down, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Anthony Richardson: We were riding high on Richardson’s small sample of fantasy success, but everything came crashing down last week with Richardson finishing as the QB25 (8.8 points).
I was undoubtedly one of the gamers enamored by Richardson’s fantasy points per dropback over the ongoing red flags he has shown as a passer.
His fantasy output was mushed, with Richardson only rushing for 37 yards and failing to land any splash plays as a passer.
The Colts had a pair of bad drops, but Richardson was the lowest-rated passer in Week 2.
Richardson has a league-low 49.1% completion rate through two weeks with 4 interceptions.
Even as the self-appointed Swami of Konami, I always preach that we need a marriage of passing and rushing production to create a vortex of fantasy points.
Without reliable passing, Richardson is more of a modern Cam Newton.
Newton’s rushing always created a high seasonal floor, but due to his up-and-down nature as a passer, that did not always align with week-to-week production.
We could be headed for a similar track here with Richardson.
I have little concern that he will close the year as a QB1, but we are going to run into more pit stops along the ride because he has yet to show down-to-down consistency as a passer on his (albeit small) NFL sample.
There have been 49 quarterbacks to throw the football 100 or more times since the start of last season.
The only passers with a lower completion rate than Richardson (55.5%) are Taylor Heinicke (54.4%), Dorian Thompson-Robinson (53.6%), and PJ Walker (48.6%).
For as much good as Shane Steichen has done, this team has the worst play differential in the NFL through two weeks.
They are often playing in a hurry to go nowhere.
When this offense is working, it looks unstoppable.
When it is not working, it looks like one of the worst offenses in the league.
We are still only working with a small sample, but there needs to be more consistency here.
If you drafted Richardson, you are still playing with as much upside as anyone at the position for when it comes together.
This is a spot where I would question this being an elite opportunity or game environment, which makes him a boom-or-bust QB1 option.
The Bears have not allowed more than 20 points in a game since the middle of last season.
They have not faced a daunting rogue’s gallery of quarterbacks over that span, but as we saw in the second half of Sunday Night Football against C.J. Stroud, they deserve credit for that defensive turnaround.
Caleb Williams: Things got off to a better start for Williams last week than in his NFL debut.
In the first half against the Texans, Williams was 12-of-15 (80%) for 91 yards (6.1 Y/A) while only taking two sacks.
The Chicago offense looked functional after a dismal opening week.
Then things cratered after halftime and looked exactly like they did in Week 1.
Williams was 11-of-22 (50%) for 3.8 Y/A with 2 interceptions in the second half.
He was sacked 5 times and pressured on 50% of his dropbacks.
We never expect the world out of rookie passers when facing NFL pressure for the first time, and that has been a rough spot for this passing game to open Williams' career.
Through two weeks, Williams has a 0.0 rating under pressure, completing 5-of-19 passes (26.3%) for 44 yards (2.3 Y/A) with 2 interceptions.
Things should improve, and this is the softest defense he has played to open the season.
The Colts are 24th in pressure rate (28.0%) and now will be without DeForest Buckner up front.
With Buckner off the field a year ago, the Colts were 30th in the NFL in pressure rate.
That is not enough to vault Williams into 1QB territory, but this is the best layout for using him in 2QB leagues.
Running Back
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More Week 3 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
Matchup | Time |
---|---|
Patriots @ Jets -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
Giants @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Packers @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Bears @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Texans @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Eagles @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Chargers @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Broncos @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Panthers @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
Dolphins @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
Ravens @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
49ers @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Lions @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Chiefs @ Falcons | Sunday Night Football |
Jaguars @ Bills -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
Commanders @ Bengals -- FREE | Monday Night Football |