As we head into Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, several intriguing player props have caught my attention.
Two players in particular stand out: Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets and Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos.
Wilson faces a tough matchup against a strong Broncos secondary, while Nix's rushing ability has become a focal point for prop bettors.
Meanwhile, the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Carolina Panthers is generating buzz for its potential offensive explosion, with both teams showing signs of offensive resurgence in recent weeks.
Let's dive into some of the most compelling prop bets for these players and this potentially high-scoring game.
Week 4 Prediction: Garrett Wilson Under 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Broncos' formidable pass defense, ranking second in yards allowed and fifth in passing defense EPA, makes the under on Jets' passing props an attractive option.
Denver's secondary has effectively neutralized top receivers through three weeks, limiting DK Metcalf, George Pickens, and Mike Evans to under 29 receiving yards each.
They've allowed only one reception of 20+ yards, the fewest in the NFL.
Wilson and quarterback Aaron Rodgers are still in the process of building chemistry.
Rodgers is learning Wilson's body language and unique abilities while Wilson adapts to Rodgers' preferences in route running and timing.
This ongoing adjustment period could result in a subdued performance against a strong secondary.
Denver's pass rush, ranking third in pressure rate, is likely to disrupt the Jets' passing game and limit Wilson's production.
The Jets' offensive line issues due to injuries could further reduce the time available for pass plays to develop, potentially restricting Wilson's opportunities.
Given these factors — Denver's strong pass defense, the developing Rodgers-Wilson connection, and the Broncos' formidable pass rush — the under on Wilson's receiving yards looks appealing.
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Week 4 Prediction: Bo Nix Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Nix has demonstrated an ability to make plays with his legs, showcasing a long run of 23 yards this season.
His potential for breaking off chunk plays on the ground is evident, with an explosive run in each of his three starts.
The Jets' defense is second in both pressure rate and total sacks.
Given Denver's offensive inconsistencies, this could lead to more scrambling opportunities for Nix when plays break down.
His 10 total scrambles, tied for third-most in the league, underscore this tendency.
Coming off his best passing performance of the season (69% completion rate), Nix may draw the Jets' focus to pass defense, potentially opening up running lanes for him to exploit.
Additionally, as a 7.5-point underdog, Nix may need to rely more on his legs to keep drives alive and generate offense if the Broncos fall behind.
Considering Nix's demonstrated rushing ability, the Jets' strong pass rush, and the potential game script, the over on 25.5 rushing yards appears to be a solid bet.
Nix's dual-threat capabilities and the likelihood of scrambling opportunities make this prop an attractive option.
Week 4 Longshot Prediction: Bengals at Panthers Alternate Line Over 54.5 (+220) and Over 60 (+420)
Building on last week's successful longshot play, this week's calculated risk focuses on potential offensive fireworks between the Bengals and Panthers.
While it may seem counterintuitive given the Panthers' reputation, there's a compelling case for a high-scoring affair.
The Bengals' offense, led by Joe Burrow, is showing signs of resurgence.
In Week 3, they scored on 86% of their drives, the best in the NFL, suggesting that Cincinnati's offense is finally clicking after a slow start to the season.
The Panthers' defense, meanwhile, resembles a sieve trying to hold water.
They've been unable to contain opposing offenses, allowing a league-worst average of 32 points per game.
Their struggles are evident across the board: 28th in rushing yards allowed, tied for fourth-worst in sacks with 1.7 sacks per game, and 27th in third-down conversions allowed.
This porous defense should provide Burrow and his offense ample opportunities to score at will.
The Panthers offense, now led by Andy Dalton, could also contribute to a high-scoring game.
Carolina has thrown the ball on 61.1% of their red zone plays, tied for third highest in the NFL. This pass-heavy approach in scoring situations could be particularly effective against the Bengals, who have allowed a 77.8% completion rate when defending in the red zone (tied for second worst in the NFL).
While reaching 60 points is undoubtedly a high bar, Dalton's form last week and the defensive vulnerabilities on both sides suggest he could be a key factor in pushing this game towards a high-scoring outcome.
Taking a shot on the Over 54.5 (+220) or even the Over 60 (+420) could be an exciting, high-reward play for those willing to embrace the risk. Go big!
