As Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season unfolds, the international series kicks off with the New York Jets facing the undefeated Minnesota Vikings in London while the struggling Carolina Panthers look to turn their season around against the Chicago Bears.
In a battle of high-powered offenses, the New Orleans Saints travel to Arrowhead Stadium to challenge the Kansas City Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos renew their fierce AFC West rivalry.
These contests showcase a mix of established powerhouses and teams seeking to prove themselves, setting the stage for an exciting weekend of NFL action.
Week 5 Best Bet Prediction: Saints +5.5 at Chiefs
Despite having Patrick Mahomes as quarterback, the Chiefs offense is not exactly a threatening or dominating force.
Mahomes is throwing deep at the lowest rate in the league, partly due to defenses playing a lot of Cover 2 to take away deep passes but also because new additions at wide receiver haven't fully integrated yet.
Xavier Worthy is still adjusting as a rookie, and both Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown have been lost to injury.
Even Mahomes has admitted to not playing well, citing issues with fundamentals and missing opportunities. His stats have been underwhelming compared to his usual standards, outside of the top 10 for both total passing yards and yards per pass while throwing the second most interceptions (5).
Pulled from Sharp Football Analysis, Mahomes has thrown a league-high 35.5% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. This is a manageable offense to defend. It’s difficult to create separation in scoring when working with a limited pool of receiving options.
The Saints have a solid defense, allowing only one touchdown pass this season while forcing a turnover at the league’s third highest rate.
That’s assuming the Chiefs can even get downfield. New Orleans’ opponents have reached the red zone at the third lowest rate.
While the Chiefs remain undefeated, these offensive issues have made their wins less convincing than expected for a team of their caliber.
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Week 5 Prediction: Jets +2.5 vs. Vikings
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offense faced one of the best secondaries in the NFL in a 10-9 loss to the Broncos last week. This week they get the Vikings, who have been good from an efficiency perspective but have also allowed the most passing yards per game.
This could be exploited by Rodgers and the Jets' receiving corps. If there was ever a time for Rodgers to click with his go-to guys, it would be now with talented receivers like Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams, and Allen Lazard.
Minnesota's defense has been a leaky faucet giving up yardage but not points, allowing only two passing scores total between 49ers’ Brock Purdy and Texans’ C.J. Stroud. However that leaky faucet blew a gasket giving up four passing touchdowns to Jordan Love in his first game back from injury.
Overall, Rodgers has a strong group of receivers to work with, each offering different strengths. The chemistry with Lazard is already established, while the connections with Wilson and Williams show promise for further development as the season progresses.
That development could come this week, at a neutral site in London, which negates any potential homefield advantage for the Vikings.
What makes this matchup even more interesting, is Rodgers is the +165 favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year. Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is the second favorite (+1200). Considering I like the Jets to pull the upset as a short-underdog, that +165 could be of value.
Week 5 Prediction: Panthers +4 at Bears
I have belief in Panthers quarterback Andy Dalton, and he has repaid that belief by making the Carolina offense much more productive.
That production stems from a quick release to mitigate any opposing pressure. The Bears have struggled in that department, ranking 22nd in pressure rate.
I have even further belief in running back Chuba Hubbard, who has found his stride as of late showcasing his great vision and patience at the line of scrimmage.
Hubbard has incredible acceleration, allowing him to hit holes quickly, as evident in his performance the last two weeks, rushing over 100 yards in each for 5.5 yards per carry.
Against the Bears defense, there will be holes.
While Chicago has been solid overall, their run defense is the biggest issue, allowing at least 94 rushing yards to a single back in back-to-back games. The Bears rank 24th in yards per carry allowed on running back runs.
A solid rushing attack can help keep the game tight.
Week 5 Prediction: Panthers at Bears Over 41.5
As mentioned, I have belief in Dalton. His presence has helped improve the overall offensive performance.
While he couldn't quite replicate this success in Week 4 against the Bengals (220 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), his performance against the Raiders demonstrated his potential to lead the Panthers offense effectively when given the opportunity.
The emergence of Diontae Johnson has been a positive. He has become a key target with 15 catches for 205 yards and 2 touchdowns in the last two games. His production is crucial in moving the chains and scoring points.
The Bears defense looks good on paper, but it has played Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, and Matthew Stafford without his top receivers. It’s been a relatively easy quarterback schedule. While Dalton doesn’t necessarily instill fear, he has been operating effectively, efficiently, and not afraid to throw deep.
On the other side, while the Bears have struggled, averaging 19 points per game, they've shown flashes of potential.
Caleb Williams gets another shot against a Carolina defense that’s allowed an average of 352 yards and 28 points in the last two weeks.
Week 5 Prediction: Raiders at Broncos Under 36
The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season, ranking second in yards allowed, third in points allowed, second in sacks, and among the top three in other defensive metrics.
To say the Raiders offense has been underwhelming is an understatement.
Gardner Minshew’s offense will be lucky to score a touchdown against Denver. Minshew is coming off a game throwing a season low 58% completion for only 130 yards and 5.4 yards per pass against the Browns. The Broncos are an even bigger challenge.
The Raiders' offensive struggles are in part because of significant injuries to key offensive players.
Leading receiver Davante Adams isn't expected to play Sunday against the Broncos due to his hamstring injury, and three starters on the offensive line are also dealing with injuries.
A Broncos defense against a Raiders injured offensive line that has allowed 14 sacks through four games, the third most.
Let’s just look at what the Broncos did to Aaron Rodgers and the Jets in Week 4, holding them to 2.8 yards per carry and sacking Rodgers five times.
Good luck Minshew. There will be no magic.
That’s only one half of the reason to take the under on such a low total, which dropped from the opening line of 37.
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has been inconsistent in his rookie season, completing 42% of his passes when under pressure for 4 yards per pass and 2 interceptions.
The Raiders defensive line has stepped up in the absence of Maxx Crosby, generating 3 sacks last week against Deshaun Watson.
A lack of elite playmakers on Denver's offense mixed with inconsistent quarterback play and a lack of an efficient run offense has led the Broncos to be shut out in 7 of the 16 quarters played, scoring 7 points or fewer in the second half of three games.
