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Say anything you want about the 49ers and the reasons for them being 2-3 right now.
Their 3 losses have each come by one score:
- 1-point loss to the Cardinals
- 3-point loss to the Rams
- 6-point loss to the Vikings
In those 3 games, they made a total of 13 drives into the red zone.
That’s 4.3 per game. For context, the NFL average is only 3.1 per game.
And yet the 49ers scored TDs on just 5 of those 13 drives.
That’s 38%.
That’s why they lost those games by 1, 3 and 6 points.
Say what you want about ANYTHING else. If they score in the red zone, they are 5-0.
Instead, they are 2-3.
Last year the 49ers were #1 in red zone conversion rate at 67%. This year, they’re #29 at 41%.
Last year the 49ers were #4 in goal-to-go conversions at 83%. This year, they’re #31 at 50%.
Do you realize the 49ers are #2 in the NFL at driving into the red zone?
Nearly 50% of their drives reach the red zone. They are #2 in the length of drives at 41 yards per drive.
Both of these numbers are BETTER this year than last year.
#2 BEST at driving all the way to the red zone.
#2 WORST at converting near the end zone.
The 49ers' early down efficiency in the red zone has been a major problem.
Their early down passing success is down from 55% to 43%.
Their early down rushing success is down from 54% to 41%.
And then on third down? Yikes.
They have a 20% success rate and average -0.66 EPA per play.
Last year, they were at 55% success and +0.75 EPA per play.
They don’t have Christian McCaffrey so the easy button is gone for Kyle Shanahan.
But this is now squarely on him. They must figure out a way to score TDs.
And for Andy Reid’s Chiefs?
Fortunately, the failures haven’t cost them wins.
But they, too, are among the NFL’s best at driving to the red zone at #6.
Yet they rank #30 in red zone efficiency.
Like the 49ers, they too don’t have their stud running back, Isiah Pacheco.
But Reid is smart enough.
They must spend their bye devising a more sound strategy near the end zone or they too could drop some winnable games like the 49ers have done.
