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This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out this year's Red River Rivalry between Oklahoma and Texas.
Texas vs. Oklahoma, current line:
Texas vs. Oklahoma Best Bet Prediction:
The Longhorns just have too much talent on both sides of the ball 一 take Texas against the spread at -14.
- Texas vs. Oklahoma, current line: Texas, -14
» Bet it now: Texas -14 points
When Texas is on Offense
Texas runs a pass-heavy offense under head coach and play-caller Steve Sarkisian 一 though it was slightly more pass-oriented when Quinn Ewers was healthy than with Arch Manning the last few weeks.
According To Campus2Canton, the Longhorns had a pass rate 8.5% above expected during Ewers’ starts compared to 6.2% with Manning at quarterback.
Texas is coming off a bye and Ewers returned to practice last week, so we should expect to see him out there and the Longhorns returning to their typical offensive game plan.
If Ewers returns, protecting him will be important and it should be a good battle in the trenches based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas: ranked eighth in pressure rate allowed
- Oklahoma: ranked 15th in pressure rate generated
Ewers takes a traditional dropback of three or more steps at a relatively high rate (59%), which increases the odds of Oklahoma getting to him.
The Sooners have generated a 44% pressure rate against traditional dropbacks compared to 26% on non-traditional dropbacks.
If Texas shifts towards a quicker passing attack to improve protection around Ewers, he should be efficient, but it might cut down on the big plays.
Take a look at Ewers’ numbers based on his dropback type via Sports Info Solutions:
- Traditional: 62% completion rate, 9.6 yards per attempt, 15.5 yards per completion
- Non-traditional: 88% completion rate, 7.2 yards per attempt, 8.3 yards per completion
Texas will also have to contend with Oklahoma’s blitz 一 the Sooners have blitzed at least 30% of the time in four of five games 一 but Ewers has been fantastic when opponents send extra pressure.
Check out his numbers against the blitz over the last two seasons:
- 66% completion rate
- 7.5 yards per attempt
- 15-2 touchdown-interception ratio
- 5.6% sack rate
When Ewers does have time to throw in the pocket, expect him to take shots downfield.
Texas is not overly aggressive 一 only 24.6% of attempts travel 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 53rd 一 but the Sooners' secondary looks vulnerable and it’s worth challenging them in this contest.
Opposing quarterbacks have not been shy about testing the Sooners' secondary, averaging 6.4 attempts per game at 15 or more yards downfield (64th), a higher rate than you might expect given Oklahoma’s success elsewhere on defense.
The downfield shots have paid off, too. Opponents are completing 50% of those throws, ranked 108th. Even Auburn’s embattled quarterback Payton Thorne was 5-6 on throws of 15 or more yards with 2 touchdowns last week.
In the run game, Oklahoma may have a better shot at slowing down the Longhorns based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas: ranked 59th in yards before contact
- Oklahoma: ranked 12th in yards before contact allowed
- Texas: ranked 35th in yards after contact
- Oklahoma: ranked eighth in yards after contact allowed
Some of Texas’ numbers may be slightly skewed by garbage time, however, as starter Jaydon Blue has been tough to bring down.
Blue is averaging 2.7 yards per carry when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage, ranked 10th in the nation, so even early contact by the Sooners defense likely won’t be able to entirely shut him down.
Blue also ranks 18th in the nation in broken/missed tackle rate.
It’s also worth noting that Oklahoma relies heavily on a six-man front (both 3-3-5 or 4-2-5 alignments), which means the Sooners are in a light box 72% of the time, per Sports Info Solutions.
That has the potential to create issues, as Texas tends to line up in heavy formations, likely to account for the rise in light boxes on the defensive side.
According to Sports Info Solutions, 55% of Blue’s carries have come in 12 personnel formations. He’s averaging 5.8 yards per attempt on those carries compared to 3.3 yards per attempt in all other formations.
When Oklahoma is on Offense
Oklahoma has shifted to a run-heavy offense this year in offensive coordinator Seth Littrell’s first year on the job, though it likely has more to do with poor quarterback play than Littrell’s system.
According to Campus2Canton, the Sooners' pass rate over expected sits at 1.0% this year, down from 4.8% in 2023 with Jeff Lebby as their coordinator.
Oklahoma turned the team over to five-star redshirt freshman Jackson Arnold this year, pushing Dillon Gabriel out the door.
After just four games, Arnold was benched, and Brent Venables turned the offense over to four-star true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr.
With Hawkins taking over, Oklahoma has shifted to an even more run-heavy offense 一 the Sooners’ pass rate over expected was -14.7% in his first start against Auburn.
The run game is likely to run into some challenges against Texas based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oklahoma: ranked 75th in yards before contact
- Texas: ranked 19th in yards before contact allowed
Oklahoma also allows contact at or behind on the line of scrimmage on 52.5% of attempts by running backs, ranked 127th.
As a result, Sooner running backs have been stuffed for zero or negative yards on 19.8% of attempts.
Due to their inability to consistently pick up positive yardage, the Sooners frequently find themselves in third-and-long situations.
28.9% of Oklahoma’s set-of-downs eventually reach a third-and-seven or longer situation, ranked 113rd.
That’s particularly bad news against a Texas defense ranked 12th by the same metric.
To keep the chains moving, Oklahoma will need Hawkins to do some damage with his legs.
Excluding sacks, Hawkins has gained 130 yards on 23 carries (5.7 yards per attempt), according to Sports Info Solutions.
However, 48 of those yards came on one play against Auburn, which demonstrates his big-play ability but also shows his lack of consistency. Take away that one long run and Hawkins is picking up just 3.7 yards per attempt.
In the passing game, Hawkins has been surprisingly effective on limited opportunities.
On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Hawkins has completed 7 of 9 attempts. That’s encouraging, but Texas ranks fourth in the nation with a 31.3% completion rate allowed at that depth
The concern with Oklahoma’s passing game goes beyond the quarterback, however, as this receiving corps might be a bad fit for Littrell’s Air Raid offense.
The Sooners rank 106th in yards after catch per reception, an inexcusable performance for an Air Raid offense.
Deion Burks, Oklahoma’s prized portal addition, has been the biggest culprit, averaging just 4.0 yards after catch per reception.
Burks just isn’t a good fit for the offense as evidenced by these route-adjusted yards after catch numbers during his final two seasons at Purdue, via Sports Info Solutions:
- 2023: 15.7% below expected
- 2022: 33.1% below expected
Burks is questionable for this game due to an injury but, given his performance, his status should have little impact on the game.
Receivers Nic Anderson, Jalil Farooq, and Andrel Anthony are also expected to miss this game due to injury.
One of Oklahoma’s most glaring weaknesses is an inability to produce big plays. Only 4.1% of the Sooners' plays have produced 20 or more yards, the nation’s fifth-worst rate.
That’s especially concerning against a Longhorns defense which leads the nation in explosive play rate allowed at 3.0%, having allowed just nine such plays through five games.
If you can't pick up yards in large chunks, you need to be able to sustain drives, but the Sooners can’t do that either.
In three games against power conference opponents, Oklahoma is 9-40 (22.5%) on third down attempts. Texas ranks second in the nation in third-down conversion rate allowed.
It’s tough to see how this Sooners squad is going to put points on the board against Texas.
Final Thoughts on Oklahoma vs. Texas Best Bets
Rivalry games can produce wacky results, but we have to trust the numbers and take Texas against the spread.
Oklahoma needed a pick-six to make a fourth-quarter comeback against Auburn, and Texas is unlikely to provide the Sooners with such help. This game could get ugly.
